Election week coastal storm threat

[Bob Chill]

Cool shot, thanks. Question, so basically we need the vort and that thing diving down from the mid-west to phase and deepen south enough, correct?

I asked the same question yesterday evening and CoastalWx had a really good answer:

That's a tough question. I think for the DC area, you probably want to cheer on a stronger initial s/w. The reason is because it's possible the energy in the Midwest will remain separate enough to prevent phasing and bring the low further west. Now some of this energy is in Canada and it's possible that the energy may dive into the backside trough enough to carve it out further and pull the low further NW...but I think the easier thing to do atmospherically, is to have the initial srn s/w stronger.

The energy as progged today is coming around the backside stronger and cutting off more than yesterday. The result is that the backside s/w sort of gives the initial s/w the boot east.

[TalcottWx]

Here's hr 33 from 12z and 27 from 18z (18z on left and 12z on right):

Going panel by panel in comparison down the line it does show the 18z trying to throw more around the back than 12z but overall not really what we were hoping for here.

You just have to cheer on nowcasting really.

[Bob Chill]

You just have to cheer on nowcasting really.

Pretty much. It all comes down to the 850 low getting its act together as quickly as possible. We really need it to get cranking and having a nice shield develop on the nw side. Obviously some banding will be required to get anything to stick.

If I had to guess the deform band will be a little more robust than what the nam is showing but will it be enough? I would hedge on the probably not side of the equation.

[clskinsfan]

I dont see how they can phase in time for NOVA.

[Bob Chill]

This pretty much sums up how the 18z nam thinks it's going to go down tomorrow:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=2+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

Northern NJ seems to get the enhanced precip on the NW side.

Again, we really need to collectively wish that the 850 get fired up early and rotates in quicker than what the nam is showing.

[EasternUSWX]

18Z local LWX model is pretty nice.

Whole run

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/hover.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity

[PDIII]

This pretty much sums up how the 18z nam thinks it's going to go down tomorrow:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Northern NJ seems to get the enhanced precip on the NW side.

Again, we really need to collectively wish that the 850 get fired up early and rotates in quicker than what the nam is showing.

Comparing the first frame of that loop and the current radar, it looks as if the precip field depicted (SC/ GA border) is much further south than the current radar (NC). I am not sure if that means the model is projecting a flare up south of the current precip field or if it is just using data from hours earlier. I would assume that the first frame of the Simulated Radar would be almost identical to the current radar at the time of the model run.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

This pretty much sums up how the 18z nam thinks it's going to go down tomorrow:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Northern NJ seems to get the enhanced precip on the NW side.

Again, we really need to collectively wish that the 850 get fired up early and rotates in quicker than what the nam is showing.

Wow, eastern PA get's absolutely pounded. Gonna be interesting to watch that dry slot feature which moves into New Jersey, that could definitely be a big factor in QPF totals.

[Ian]

hurricane https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7C_UxACEAAi-gt.png

[usedtobe]

The latest CWG article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-snowflakes-of-the-season-possible-in-washington-dc-wednesday/2012/11/06/4a5f6ae8-2847-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_blog.html#pagebreak

[Avdave]

I dont see how they can phase in time for NOVA.

NOVA is out of totally. Not to surprised to be honest. This is a Harford county, MD (Bel Air) and North to Philly and East to Dover, DE special.

[EasternUSWX]

RGEM is pretty nice.

[Avdave]

The latest CWG article.

http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak

Seems reasonable and good stuff Wes and CWG

[clskinsfan]

NOVA is out of totally. Not to surprised to be honest. This is a Harford county, MD (Bel Air) and North to Philly and East to Dover, DE special.

Goes back to what I said about being in the "bullseye" 6 days out. Never verifies. Philly Looks to get a nice hit out of this.

[Ian]

GFS is pretty meh.

[Ian]

Well, for me at least. It's almost the same as 12z really.

[yoda]

GFS is pretty meh.

.1-.15 QPF total... I think most of it would be slushy snow that wouldnt accumulate

[TUweathermanDD]

.1-.15 QPF total... I think most of it would be slushy snow that wouldnt accumulate

.5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports.

[Ian]

.5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports.

That would be false.

[yoda]

.5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports.

No it doesnt. It barely is in MD

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[EasternUSWX]

No it doesnt. It barely is in MD

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

It is pretty close to Baltimore. probably .4-.45". Pretty much a .05-.10" increase all around from 12Z. Baby steps.

18Z

12Z

[TalcottWx]

.5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports.

Looks like the .2-.5 contour is through BWI

[yoda]

Looks like the .2-.5 contour is through BWI

The .25 does... .5 isn't in MD at all besides extreme NE MD near PA border and MD/DE border

[TalcottWx]

Well, can't say tracking this hasn't been interesting. Crazy gradient. Much of a push either way = dramaticallydifferent results. That combined with complications of hit or miss banding, BL warmth questions, makes for a complicated forecast. Has bust potential.

[TalcottWx]

The .25 does... .5 isn't in MD at all besides extreme NE MD near PA border and MD/DE border

Talking about the color contour. I know what you mean.

[EasternUSWX]

One thing to keep an eye on is the precip down in NC. If that keep sliding more up the coast then off shore in the next 6hrs we got a better shot at this.

[TalcottWx]

One thing to keep an eye on is the precip down in NC. If that keep sliding more up the coast then off shore in the next 6hrs we got a better shot at this.

Hallucinations will ensue. Don't kill yourself over it.

[EasternUSWX]

Hallucinations will ensue. Don't kill yourself over it.

Both the HI RES local lwx models keep the precip a bit more on shore and as a result shows a decent hit. This model only goes out to 24hrs but the good returns are already pushing in.

[EasternUSWX]

18Z GFS ENS were a bit west if it matter, maybe. .25" into DC, .5" near baltimore.

[usedtobe]

18Z GFS ENS were a bit west if it matter, maybe. .25" into DC, .5" near baltimore.

At this time range don't post a coarse resolution ensemble mean as it is going to smear the precip on each member. Use the sref as it has higher resolution than the gefs but even then at this time range, I'd start using the high resolution models as my ensembles.