aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dec. 26 2010 always makes me suspicious of tight gradient storms and the need to drift precip back to the west... That event had most models giving most of us a good amount of snow but the NAM was way East and wouldn't budge...slowly the other models started shifting East...NWS was calling for a nice snow for most that eventually ended up being a shore storm and the further North. Don't see this one modeled similar at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That event had most models giving most of us a good amount of snow but the NAM was way East and wouldn't budge...slowly the other models started shifting East...NWS was calling for a nice snow for most that eventually ended up being a shore storm and the further North. Don't see this one modeled similar at all I think in the mid levels it's not all that similar. That was a crazy sharp n/s trough which I think was partly the cause of the tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think in the mid levels it's not all that similar. That was a crazy sharp n/s trough which I think was partly the cause of the tight gradient. I just remember going into panic mode when the NAM wouldn't budge from its East solution...one of the last times I recall flipping out over a storm. Probably was the moment I stopped posting as much as well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I think in the mid levels it's not all that similar. That was a crazy sharp n/s trough which I think was partly the cause of the tight gradient. That was the beginning of the great Snow Hole of '10-11.. I just remember that Christmas... there was so much virga on the radar I am pretty sure I hallucinated snow flakes in my back yard for a few hours... Virginia Beach got nailed and then Phi to Boston got nailed... and we were in the screw zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I just remember going into panic mode when the NAM wouldn't budge from its East solution...one of the last times I recall flipping out over a storm. Probably was the moment I stopped posting as much as well I think. I remember that annoying guy CAPE who lives on the Eastern Shore boasting about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18z cant come soon enough. Need more guidance. Feed me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That was the beginning of the great Snow Hole of '10-11.. I just remember that Christmas... there was so much virga on the radar I am pretty sure I hallucinated snow flakes in my back yard for a few hours... Virginia Beach got nailed and then Phi to Boston got nailed... and we were in the screw zone Yes, I remember now. The SREFs got demolished and embarrassed. They had us in the .5 contour even as the storm started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I just remember going into panic mode when the NAM wouldn't budge from its East solution...one of the last times I recall flipping out over a storm. Probably was the moment I stopped posting as much as well I think. A lot of us were in panic mode, because for the longest time the models had a storm, the Euro was leading the way bombing us on some occasions, then left its solution and the models went east. One afternoon, I believe the 22nd or 23rd brought it back again in terms of us getting a big hit, however it was on its own. Then on Christmas eve the models started trending back west, but HPC labeled the cause as convective feedback errors, so we decided after 12 and 18z we'd wait for 0z which was still trending west and finally the NWS reacted issuing WSWatches on Christmas morning. Meanwhile through the day the SREF mean was way west and the NAM to a certain extent still had it going east, other models ticking that way as well, which came to fruition while I was sitting in a WSWarning the morning of the 26th for 8-12 inches by the bay, only to get <1" as my total. At least on Christmas it made me even happier than I already was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That event had most models giving most of us a good amount of snow but the NAM was way East and wouldn't budge...slowly the other models started shifting East...NWS was calling for a nice snow for most that eventually ended up being a shore storm and the further North. Don't see this one modeled similar at all The wounds from that storm are still healing for many of us, so tight gradients on late-bombing storms have us gun shy. I left my brother's house in South Jersey at around noon or so that day with the first flakes flying. I drove home with flakes in the air nearly all the way to Baltimore...then *poof*. I knowingly drove away from a blizzard that gave my brother over a foot of snow. Pain... (Sorry for the tangent) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like another cold, wet, and breezy fall 'noreaster for those of us on the Eastern Shore. Feel bad for the coastal communities though, they don't need more 6-10 ft. waves and 3-4 ft. of surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That was the beginning of the great Snow Hole of '10-11.. I just remember that Christmas... there was so much virga on the radar I am pretty sure I hallucinated snow flakes in my back yard for a few hours... Virginia Beach got nailed and then Phi to Boston got nailed... and we were in the screw zone I came back from CT as I didn't want to get stuck there and figured we'd at least get a few inches. Got flurries most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yes, I remember now. The SREFs got demolished and embarrassed. They had us in the .5 contour even as the storm started. S***...I remember that now. I was still up in Jersey and reading posts on my phone about how the SREF brought this area back into play and that ratios would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The wounds from that storm are still healing for many of us, so tight gradients on late-bombing storms have us gun shy. I left my brother's house in South Jersey at around noon or so that day with the first flakes flying. I drove home with flakes in the air nearly all the way to Baltimore...then *poof*. I knowingly drove away from a blizzard that gave my brother over a foot of snow. Pain... (Sorry for the tangent) Ya here is the EURO for that storm. Talk about a kick in the nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dear Jesus that Euro map is orgasmitastic. :drool: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dear Jesus that Euro map is orgasmitastic. :drool: Ya too bad it was completely wrong. haha. There was even bigger runs than that, i'd have to search my computer for them but, I had this one handy from that Boxing day failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Keep the banter about other storms to banter threads thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is what 12/26 looked like.. some similarities but quite different too http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1226.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Keep the banter about other storms to banter threads thanks. We have our own mods, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is what 12/26 looked like.. some similarities but quite different too http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us1226.php Quite interesting how the model play out has been similar. Euro showed bomb, others said not, others came around a bit but not to the extent of the Euro, then they all went east, then it slowly trended back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The storm they are talking about is an analog isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 time to start watching radars and sat pics too http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html I think we can see our issue on that water vapor loop.....that short wave in the mid west has got to be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 time to start watching radars and sat pics too http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html I think we can see our issue on that water vapor loop.....that short wave in the mid west has got to be perfect that short wave has acted to kick the initial development of the low further east and that is our problem. If that wasnt there this would bomb much closer in and we wouldnt need this to pull back in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 If you're posting about a model please post something at least partially useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 LWX SnowMap released - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Honest question. What is that little curling/spin on the radar in NC? Is that the upper level low? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 LWX SnowMap released - I'll take it .. to verify my snow near DC idea. 0.1" counts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Honest question. What is that little curling/spin on the radar in NC? Is that the upper level low? http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php It's the vort. Much more clear here: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 CWG: For the D.C. area, we’d give the following odds for snow: * 40 percent chance of no snow; just light rain showers, if anything * 20 percent chance of snowflakes mixing in with rain, but no accumulation * 20 percent chance of a slushy coating of snow, mainly on grassy areas * 15 percent chance of a coating to 1” of wet snow, mainly on grassy areas * 5 percent chance of 1-4” of wet snow http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-snowflakes-of-the-season-possible-in-washington-dc-wednesday/2012/11/06/4a5f6ae8-2847-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's the vort. Much more clear here: http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html Cool shot, thanks. Question, so basically we need the vort and that thing diving down from the mid-west to phase and deepen south enough, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's the vort. Much more clear here: http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html If we didn't have models, i'd say that looked impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.