Election week coastal storm threat

[Ian]

That was the beginning of the great Snow Hole of '10-11.. I just remember that Christmas... there was so much virga on the radar I am pretty sure I hallucinated snow flakes in my back yard for a few hours... Virginia Beach got nailed and then Phi to Boston got nailed... and we were in the screw zone

I came back from CT as I didn't want to get stuck there and figured we'd at least get a few inches. Got flurries most of the day.

[mattie g]

Yes, I remember now. The SREFs got demolished and embarrassed. They had us in the .5 contour even as the storm started.

S***...I remember that now. I was still up in Jersey and reading posts on my phone about how the SREF brought this area back into play and that ratios would be great.

[EasternUSWX]

The wounds from that storm are still healing for many of us, so tight gradients on late-bombing storms have us gun shy.

I left my brother's house in South Jersey at around noon or so that day with the first flakes flying. I drove home with flakes in the air nearly all the way to Baltimore...then *poof*.

I knowingly drove away from a blizzard that gave my brother over a foot of snow. Pain...

(Sorry for the tangent)

Ya here is the EURO for that storm. Talk about a kick in the nuts.

[WxUSAF]

Dear Jesus that Euro map is orgasmitastic. :drool:

[EasternUSWX]

Dear Jesus that Euro map is orgasmitastic. :drool:

Ya too bad it was completely wrong. haha. There was even bigger runs than that, i'd have to search my computer for them but, I had this one handy from that Boxing day failure.

[Rib]

Keep the banter about other storms to banter threads thanks.

[Ian]

This is what 12/26 looked like.. some similarities but quite different too

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us1226.php

[PhineasC]

Keep the banter about other storms to banter threads thanks.

We have our own mods, thanks.

[EasternUSWX]

This is what 12/26 looked like.. some similarities but quite different too

http://www.meteo.psu...2010/us1226.php

Quite interesting how the model play out has been similar. Euro showed bomb, others said not, others came around a bit but not to the extent of the Euro, then they all went east, then it slowly trended back in.

[TalcottWx]

The storm they are talking about is an analog isn't it?

[mitchnick]

time to start watching radars and sat pics too

http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html

I think we can see our issue on that water vapor loop.....that short wave in the mid west has got to be perfect

[psuhoffman]

time to start watching radars and sat pics too

http://beta.intellic...ue&animate=true

http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html

I think we can see our issue on that water vapor loop.....that short wave in the mid west has got to be perfect

that short wave has acted to kick the initial development of the low further east and that is our problem. If that wasnt there this would bomb much closer in and we wouldnt need this to pull back in from the east.

[Ian]

If you're posting about a model please post something at least partially useful.

[AmericanWxFreak]

LWX SnowMap released -

[EasternUSWX]

Honest question. What is that little curling/spin on the radar in NC? Is that the upper level low?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

[Ian]

LWX SnowMap released -

I'll take it .. to verify my snow near DC idea. 0.1" counts!

[Bob Chill]

Honest question. What is that little curling/spin on the radar in NC? Is that the upper level low?

http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php

It's the vort. Much more clear here:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[Ian]

CWG:

For the D.C. area, we’d give the following odds for snow:

* 40 percent chance of no snow; just light rain showers, if anything

* 20 percent chance of snowflakes mixing in with rain, but no accumulation

* 20 percent chance of a slushy coating of snow, mainly on grassy areas

* 15 percent chance of a coating to 1” of wet snow, mainly on grassy areas

* 5 percent chance of 1-4” of wet snow

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-snowflakes-of-the-season-possible-in-washington-dc-wednesday/2012/11/06/4a5f6ae8-2847-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_blog.html

[nj2va]

It's the vort. Much more clear here:

http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html

Cool shot, thanks. Question, so basically we need the vort and that thing diving down from the mid-west to phase and deepen south enough, correct?

[EasternUSWX]

It's the vort. Much more clear here:

http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html

If we didn't have models, i'd say that looked impressive.

[Bob Chill]

Cool shot, thanks. Question, so basically we need the vort and that thing diving down from the mid-west to phase and deepen south enough, correct?

I asked the same question yesterday evening and CoastalWx had a really good answer:

That's a tough question. I think for the DC area, you probably want to cheer on a stronger initial s/w. The reason is because it's possible the energy in the Midwest will remain separate enough to prevent phasing and bring the low further west. Now some of this energy is in Canada and it's possible that the energy may dive into the backside trough enough to carve it out further and pull the low further NW...but I think the easier thing to do atmospherically, is to have the initial srn s/w stronger.

The energy as progged today is coming around the backside stronger and cutting off more than yesterday. The result is that the backside s/w sort of gives the initial s/w the boot east.

[TalcottWx]

Here's hr 33 from 12z and 27 from 18z (18z on left and 12z on right):

Going panel by panel in comparison down the line it does show the 18z trying to throw more around the back than 12z but overall not really what we were hoping for here.

You just have to cheer on nowcasting really.

[Bob Chill]

You just have to cheer on nowcasting really.

Pretty much. It all comes down to the 850 low getting its act together as quickly as possible. We really need it to get cranking and having a nice shield develop on the nw side. Obviously some banding will be required to get anything to stick.

If I had to guess the deform band will be a little more robust than what the nam is showing but will it be enough? I would hedge on the probably not side of the equation.

[clskinsfan]

I dont see how they can phase in time for NOVA.

[Bob Chill]

This pretty much sums up how the 18z nam thinks it's going to go down tomorrow:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=2+Day+Loop&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

Northern NJ seems to get the enhanced precip on the NW side.

Again, we really need to collectively wish that the 850 get fired up early and rotates in quicker than what the nam is showing.

[EasternUSWX]

18Z local LWX model is pretty nice.

Whole run

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/hover.php?fld=wrf_reflectivity

[PDIII]

This pretty much sums up how the 18z nam thinks it's going to go down tomorrow:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Northern NJ seems to get the enhanced precip on the NW side.

Again, we really need to collectively wish that the 850 get fired up early and rotates in quicker than what the nam is showing.

Comparing the first frame of that loop and the current radar, it looks as if the precip field depicted (SC/ GA border) is much further south than the current radar (NC). I am not sure if that means the model is projecting a flare up south of the current precip field or if it is just using data from hours earlier. I would assume that the first frame of the Simulated Radar would be almost identical to the current radar at the time of the model run.

[Blizzard-on-GFS]

This pretty much sums up how the 18z nam thinks it's going to go down tomorrow:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

Northern NJ seems to get the enhanced precip on the NW side.

Again, we really need to collectively wish that the 850 get fired up early and rotates in quicker than what the nam is showing.

Wow, eastern PA get's absolutely pounded. Gonna be interesting to watch that dry slot feature which moves into New Jersey, that could definitely be a big factor in QPF totals.

[Ian]

hurricane https://pbs.twimg.com/media/A7C_UxACEAAi-gt.png

[usedtobe]

The latest CWG article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/first-snowflakes-of-the-season-possible-in-washington-dc-wednesday/2012/11/06/4a5f6ae8-2847-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_blog.html#pagebreak