Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 GFS says nope. Quietly drifts out to sea. Makes sense. There is nothing to stop it. And even if there was, 850 0c is in canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Euro forms a low over N FL 18z Tuesday.. tracks to outer banks by 12z Wed. Right off delmarva at 0z Thurs. Sorta stalls right south of NJ coast thru 12z Thur. Looks like 1-2" rain across DC area. Has sig snow for western 'burbs (4-8" or so). Brings light accumulation to I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 8-12" bullseye over the northern tip of VA west of Loudoun cty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Interesting. Even though the GFS was ots the low really crawled from a point off the sc coast to off the delmarva. Looks like the euro has it crawling too. At least chasing will be much closer this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Ian...just guessing based off the Instant Weather Maps site...this would be a snow-to rain event? Maybe back to snow at the tail end? P.S. Have to laugh @ DT who just the other day talked up the Euro and did normal GFS bashing because the GFS had a big coastal (wrong in his opinion) and the Euro was OTS (right of course). Now they've switched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Ian...just guessing based off the Instant Weather Maps site...this would be a snow-to rain event? Maybe back to snow at the tail end? P.S. Have to laugh @ DT who just the other day talked up the Euro and did normal GFS bashing because the GFS had a big coastal (wrong in his opinion) and the Euro was OTS (right of course). Now they've switched. Hard to say for sure. Looks like on the eastern end it would be rain to snow to rain. The 850 line backs west a smidge during the event. The jackpot area looks like it might never switch from snow though I'd guess there's some mix with the low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Whats the BL looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Whats the BL looking like? sfc temps are in the 30s.. the timing is good since it's mostly overnight. if the low didn't stall like it shows the 0c 850 might not push back west like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Well we cant really ask for better SLP placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Man, i gotta root against this one. Euro track is awful for same coastal areas that just lost pretty much all their protection from strong onshore flow. This would be worse than insult to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Man, i gotta root against this one. Euro track is awful for same coastal areas that just lost pretty much all their protection from strong onshore flow. This would be worse than insult to injury. In true weenie form, if it brings me snow, I dont care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 8-12" bullseye over the northern tip of VA west of Loudoun cty. That sounds interesting. But we all know what being in the "bullseye" 6 days out means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Enlarged a little snip of the 850 temp map @ hr 120 from the euro. 0c basically directly over top of I-95. Parrs Ridge area of md would be a good chase area for me (taking the euro verbatim which still seems silly but I'm starting to become more interested). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Enlarged a little snip of the 850 temp map @ hr 120 from the euro. 0c basically directly over top of I-95. Parrs Ridge area of md would be a good chase area for me (taking the euro verbatim which still seems silly but I'm starting to become more interested). This area does VERY well in these type of marginal setups.. 9" here from the storm last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 This area does VERY well in these type of marginal setups.. 9" here from the storm last October. Yes it sure does. You wouldn't think that 600' could make such a big difference but it sure does. I worked in Mt. Airy for 5 years and it never ceased to amaze me how much different snowfall would be in just 30 miles from my house. I think there is an upslope component with NE-E surface flow too which helps with both precip rates and a little extra kick to surface cooling. I remember we had a discussion about this a year or 2 ago and it was really apparent with climo snow maps. The Frederick valley gets shafted because of Parrs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Elevation makes all of the difference early in the season. Just look at Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 This area does VERY well in these type of marginal setups.. 9" here from the storm last October. No doubt. I got close to 4" last October in Damascus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Rt 15 and west storm for No Va - Elevation is probably the key - but agree about the time of day! If it is night, this may be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 No doubt. I got close to 4" last October in Damascus. I am only 6 miles or so south of there and I got 2", and areas just a few miles to my south got nothing. I wonder what it would be like if Damascus was at 2,000 and Germantown at like 1,400. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I am only 6 miles or so south of there and I got 2", and areas just a few miles to my south got nothing. I wonder what it would be like if Damascus was at 2,000 and Germantown at like 1,400. I dug up a sweet radar shot and vis sat from the Oct storm. Really puts it into perspective. Also shows how Parrs = win and Frederick Valley = loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I dug up a sweet radar shot and vis sat from the Oct storm. Really puts it into perspective. Also shows how Parrs = win and Frederick Valley = loss. Deform zones always love Leesburg or thereabouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I dug up a sweet radar shot and vis sat from the Oct storm. Really puts it into perspective. Also shows how Parrs = win and Frederick Valley = loss. That satellite photo shows Frederick area easily in between the two white areas. If you look at the average MD snowfall chart by the NWS, that hole over Frederick is real as the city sits in the valley. More like a bowl actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Deform zones always love Leesburg or thereabouts Or maybe even a little west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I am only 6 miles or so south of there and I got 2", and areas just a few miles to my south got nothing. I wonder what it would be like if Damascus was at 2,000 and Germantown at like 1,400. I'm just a few miles south of Mt Airy; the closest establishment outside of the prohibition zone to get beverages is "Lou and Joes" on rt 27, which I'm guessing is 20' or so feet higher than my house. It always seems like the parking lot has a bit more snow there than my driveway. In the past I remember just beyond Cedar Grove Elementary on 27 being a break point between a dusting vs several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 If Sandy can be considered in the end, a mega-nor'easter instigated by a tropical system, the upcoming storm is not analogous. Never-the-less, winter weather lovers in the mid-Atlantic must be encouraged by a reloading pattern of vorticity moving up the coast along with some blocking. At least systems are not relentlessly zonal and progressive. Not much if any snow with the next system but it is only the second week of November. Oh yeah, the EURO is hot to trot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Keep hearing it's such a good sign seeing noreasters already. Yeah ok let's get our noreasters in oct and nov. so when it really counts we get diddly squat. Hope this thing misses. Would rather have progressive pattern now transition to more amped phased pattern end of November and December. Much better shot of attaining snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 But man if this particular storm would have been snow many would be ecstatic. Great timing on the phase,nice track, and a somewhat slow mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 We are in the deform band. Too bad it's rain. Otherwise 11/15/95 would be a good analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 18z GFS looks a lot like the Euro -- a bit warmer. Does the slow/stall near us as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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