mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 30s.. marginal as it's been. verbatim freezing line never gets that close to the areas it shows accumulation. k, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 1"+ qpf gets into parts of S DE, very SE MD near shore. .75" to east side of bay. .5" to west side of bay. .25" cuts mostly n/s thru DC area. .1" to BR/HGR/RICish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 1"+ qpf gets into parts of S DE, very SE MD near shore. .75" to east side of bay. .5" to west side of bay. .25" cuts mostly n/s thru DC area. .1" to BR/HGR/RICish. 2-4 looks like a good call for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 2-4 looks like a good call for me I'd agree, our longitude is about 20-30 miles from .75" QPF on this run, so if the trend isn't over, you even could bump that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 2-4 looks like a good call for me Agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 2" snow contour starts just NE of DC, 3" just NE of Balt. 4-8" same area as noted.. far NE MD, N DE, SE PA, W NJ. Another spot NW CT to SE NY, Central Mass, E ME. 1" HGR to just west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. Agreed Ian, I'd say we need a little more west on 0z bringing the band that touches the Western Shore over the I95 beltway, if that occurred places would be in much better shape. Though we aren't far from that, so if things continue west, we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 QPF totals sound Nam-ish. Double E rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. I think that is a legit concern and is the reason I still don't like any accumulation in our area....flakes maybe but even that is not certain with light precip...I doubt we see accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. DCA is .23 and BWI is .37. Neither comes down heavy. Even in ILG and PHL the best 6 hour totals are .3 to .35. 4-8 may fall, and temps fall to about 1c or so both places-- We were at 60 down here before the Feb 19th snow-- it laid right away on grass and cars, needed heavier stuff to get pavement. This may never really have S+ but more like hours of moderate. A slushy 4-5 near ILG and Philly with 2 of paste on pavement unless rates improve. And, we dropped to 31 once the heavy stuff came in vs they are modeled just above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 DCA is .23 and BWI is .37. Neither comes down heavy. Even in ILG and PHL the best 6 hour totals are .3 to .35. 4-8 may fall, and temps fall to about 1c or so both places-- We were at 60 down here before the Feb 19th snow-- it laid right away on grass and cars, needed heavier stuff to get pavement. This may never really have S+ but more like hours of moderate. A slushy 4-5 near ILG and Philly with 2 of past on pavement unless rates improve. And, we dropped to 31 once the heavy stuff came in vs they are modeled just above freezing. But most of us don't live in ILG or PHL, If Baltimore gets .37 then they have a chance of whitening the ground if the surface temp gets to 1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 am1934354psu is bullish http://twitpic.com/baw8tv/full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But most of us don't live in ILG or PHL, If Baltimore gets .37 then they have a chance of whitening the ground if the surface temp gets to 1C. This is true Wes, though the way the models are jumping around from run to run, this analysis now mean little later if it goes east or west. If it goes west, we get into the heavier rates and the discussion changes, if it goes east the precip totals are low enough to where there isn't enough QPF on the models equaling sig precip. In general, its a cat and mouse game, and we are just analyzing run to run in a way, because we don't know what the next run or the ultimate solution will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I guess the Euro just gave us an excuse to follow the models the rest of the day, as if we needed one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 am1934354psu is bullish http://twitpic.com/baw8tv/full To be fair, I suck at estimating ratios. I'd trust Wes over me any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But most of us don't live in ILG or PHL, If Baltimore gets .37 then they have a chance of whitening the ground if the surface temp gets to 1C. Exactly my point. The ECMWF snow map is overdone based on rates-- small wiggle west and DC can get that too or wiggle east and BWI gets nada. Good bet they see their first flakes of the year either way. QPF at DOV is just over an inch.. Philly has their own thread to gloat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 To be fair, I suck at estimating ratios. I'd trust Wes over me any day. It's not bad. I'd probably take the under on the SW part in general at this pt but it's plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I guess the Euro just gave us an excuse to follow the models the rest of the day, as if we needed one. Not very man runs to go........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heavy QPF is pretty close. Tight gradients like this are often a bit wider upon verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not very man runs to go........ Still 36-42 hours out. Plenty of time to juice up the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heavy QPF is pretty close. Tight gradients like this are often a bit wider upon verification. sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heavy QPF is pretty close. Tight gradients like this are often a bit wider upon verification. I pretty much agree and iirc it's more common for the nw side to set up a little better with rates. There always seems to be "that band" that wasn't particularly modeled well. Unfortunately "that band" is almost always somewhere to my N or NW. Still no reason to stop keeping a close eye. I had a grand total of 2.5" last year spread over a half dozen events. This system could easily top my single biggest even all of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What was our biggest event last year? That 1 inch of slop we got in January? I dont even remember snow last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho. How many times have we seen a precip plot with .75 here, .5 in DC, and .25 in Leesburg only to watch a super band park for hours over Leesburg and give them plenty of precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho. Dec. 26 2010 always makes me suspicious of tight gradient storms and the need to drift precip back to the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 am1934354psu is bullish http://twitpic.com/baw8tv/full I love Adam and he is a great forecaster but I cannot see me getting 3 to 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Dec. 26 2010 always makes me suspicious of tight gradient storms and the need to drift precip back to the west... I don't really remember what happened there. I think the models coming back west over the past two cycles is a good sign. In some of the counter-cases we were watching models drift east and claiming they were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't really remember what happened there. I think the models coming back west over the past two cycles is a good sign. In some of the counter-cases we were watching models drift east and claiming they were wrong. That storm is a decent analog at least to a degree. Modeling was similar too with GFS mostly a miss then A few runs with a hit before ultimately missing. Euro kept caking us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho. I agree here too but my memory is telling me that in this specific type of setup the chance is higher of a big band setting up a bit further west than what is being shown on models just 24 hours before. I'm usually skipped over with the band but one of these days it will pick me. Prob not tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.