Election week coastal storm threat

[Huffwx]

Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better.

DCA is .23 and BWI is .37. Neither comes down heavy. Even in ILG and PHL the best 6 hour totals are .3 to .35. 4-8 may fall, and temps fall to about 1c or so both places--

We were at 60 down here before the Feb 19th snow-- it laid right away on grass and cars, needed heavier stuff to get pavement. This may never really have S+ but more like hours of moderate. A slushy 4-5 near ILG and Philly with 2 of paste on pavement unless rates improve. And, we dropped to 31 once the heavy stuff came in vs they are modeled just above freezing.

[usedtobe]

DCA is .23 and BWI is .37. Neither comes down heavy. Even in ILG and PHL the best 6 hour totals are .3 to .35. 4-8 may fall, and temps fall to about 1c or so both places--

We were at 60 down here before the Feb 19th snow-- it laid right away on grass and cars, needed heavier stuff to get pavement. This may never really have S+ but more like hours of moderate. A slushy 4-5 near ILG and Philly with 2 of past on pavement unless rates improve. And, we dropped to 31 once the heavy stuff came in vs they are modeled just above freezing.

But most of us don't live in ILG or PHL, If Baltimore gets .37 then they have a chance of whitening the ground if the surface temp gets to 1C.

[Ian]

am1934354psu is bullish http://twitpic.com/baw8tv/full

[TUweathermanDD]

But most of us don't live in ILG or PHL, If Baltimore gets .37 then they have a chance of whitening the ground if the surface temp gets to 1C.

This is true Wes, though the way the models are jumping around from run to run, this analysis now mean little later if it goes east or west. If it goes west, we get into the heavier rates and the discussion changes, if it goes east the precip totals are low enough to where there isn't enough QPF on the models equaling sig precip. In general, its a cat and mouse game, and we are just analyzing run to run in a way, because we don't know what the next run or the ultimate solution will hold.

[PhineasC]

I guess the Euro just gave us an excuse to follow the models the rest of the day, as if we needed one.

[am19psu]

am1934354psu is bullish http://twitpic.com/baw8tv/full

To be fair, I suck at estimating ratios. I'd trust Wes over me any day.

[Huffwx]

But most of us don't live in ILG or PHL, If Baltimore gets .37 then they have a chance of whitening the ground if the surface temp gets to 1C.

Exactly my point. The ECMWF snow map is overdone based on rates-- small wiggle west and DC can get that too or wiggle east and BWI gets nada. Good bet they see their first flakes of the year either way. QPF at DOV is just over an inch..

Philly has their own thread to gloat.

[Ian]

To be fair, I suck at estimating ratios. I'd trust Wes over me any day.

It's not bad. I'd probably take the under on the SW part in general at this pt but it's plausible.

[MillzPirate]

I guess the Euro just gave us an excuse to follow the models the rest of the day, as if we needed one.

Not very man runs to go........

[PhineasC]

Heavy QPF is pretty close. Tight gradients like this are often a bit wider upon verification.

[PhineasC]

Not very man runs to go........

Still 36-42 hours out. Plenty of time to juice up the precip.

[Ian]

Heavy QPF is pretty close. Tight gradients like this are often a bit wider upon verification.

sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho.

[Bob Chill]

Heavy QPF is pretty close. Tight gradients like this are often a bit wider upon verification.

I pretty much agree and iirc it's more common for the nw side to set up a little better with rates. There always seems to be "that band" that wasn't particularly modeled well. Unfortunately "that band" is almost always somewhere to my N or NW. Still no reason to stop keeping a close eye. I had a grand total of 2.5" last year spread over a half dozen events. This system could easily top my single biggest even all of last year.

[MillzPirate]

What was our biggest event last year? That 1 inch of slop we got in January? I dont even remember snow last year

[PhineasC]

sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho.

How many times have we seen a precip plot with .75 here, .5 in DC, and .25 in Leesburg only to watch a super band park for hours over Leesburg and give them plenty of precip?

[North Balti Zen]

sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho.

Dec. 26 2010 always makes me suspicious of tight gradient storms and the need to drift precip back to the west...

[ravensrule]

am1934354psu is bullish http://twitpic.com/baw8tv/full

I love Adam and he is a great forecaster but I cannot see me getting 3 to 6 inches.

[PhineasC]

Dec. 26 2010 always makes me suspicious of tight gradient storms and the need to drift precip back to the west...

I don't really remember what happened there. I think the models coming back west over the past two cycles is a good sign. In some of the counter-cases we were watching models drift east and claiming they were wrong.

[Ian]

I don't really remember what happened there. I think the models coming back west over the past two cycles is a good sign. In some of the counter-cases we were watching models drift east and claiming they were wrong.

That storm is a decent analog at least to a degree. Modeling was similar too with GFS mostly a miss then A few runs with a hit before ultimately missing. Euro kept caking us.

[Bob Chill]

sometimes.. not always. there are plenty of tight gradient storms on the west edge. deform might throw it off on the far edge tho.

I agree here too but my memory is telling me that in this specific type of setup the chance is higher of a big band setting up a bit further west than what is being shown on models just 24 hours before. I'm usually skipped over with the band but one of these days it will pick me. Prob not tomorrow though.

[aldie 22]

Dec. 26 2010 always makes me suspicious of tight gradient storms and the need to drift precip back to the west...

That event had most models giving most of us a good amount of snow but the NAM was way East and wouldn't budge...slowly the other models started shifting East...NWS was calling for a nice snow for most that eventually ended up being a shore storm and the further North. Don't see this one modeled similar at all

[Ian]

That event had most models giving most of us a good amount of snow but the NAM was way East and wouldn't budge...slowly the other models started shifting East...NWS was calling for a nice snow for most that eventually ended up being a shore storm and the further North. Don't see this one modeled similar at all

I think in the mid levels it's not all that similar. That was a crazy sharp n/s trough which I think was partly the cause of the tight gradient.

[aldie 22]

I think in the mid levels it's not all that similar. That was a crazy sharp n/s trough which I think was partly the cause of the tight gradient.

I just remember going into panic mode when the NAM wouldn't budge from its East solution...one of the last times I recall flipping out over a storm. Probably was the moment I stopped posting as much as well I think.

[PDIII]

I think in the mid levels it's not all that similar. That was a crazy sharp n/s trough which I think was partly the cause of the tight gradient.

That was the beginning of the great Snow Hole of '10-11.. I just remember that Christmas... there was so much virga on the radar I am pretty sure I hallucinated snow flakes in my back yard for a few hours... Virginia Beach got nailed and then Phi to Boston got nailed... and we were in the screw zone

[PhineasC]

I just remember going into panic mode when the NAM wouldn't budge from its East solution...one of the last times I recall flipping out over a storm. Probably was the moment I stopped posting as much as well I think.

I remember that annoying guy CAPE who lives on the Eastern Shore boasting about it.

[TalcottWx]

18z cant come soon enough. Need more guidance. Feed me

[PhineasC]

That was the beginning of the great Snow Hole of '10-11.. I just remember that Christmas... there was so much virga on the radar I am pretty sure I hallucinated snow flakes in my back yard for a few hours... Virginia Beach got nailed and then Phi to Boston got nailed... and we were in the screw zone

Yes, I remember now. The SREFs got demolished and embarrassed. They had us in the .5 contour even as the storm started.

[TUweathermanDD]

I just remember going into panic mode when the NAM wouldn't budge from its East solution...one of the last times I recall flipping out over a storm. Probably was the moment I stopped posting as much as well I think.

A lot of us were in panic mode, because for the longest time the models had a storm, the Euro was leading the way bombing us on some occasions, then left its solution and the models went east. One afternoon, I believe the 22nd or 23rd brought it back again in terms of us getting a big hit, however it was on its own. Then on Christmas eve the models started trending back west, but HPC labeled the cause as convective feedback errors, so we decided after 12 and 18z we'd wait for 0z which was still trending west and finally the NWS reacted issuing WSWatches on Christmas morning. Meanwhile through the day the SREF mean was way west and the NAM to a certain extent still had it going east, other models ticking that way as well, which came to fruition while I was sitting in a WSWarning the morning of the 26th for 8-12 inches by the bay, only to get <1" as my total. At least on Christmas it made me even happier than I already was.

[mattie g]

That event had most models giving most of us a good amount of snow but the NAM was way East and wouldn't budge...slowly the other models started shifting East...NWS was calling for a nice snow for most that eventually ended up being a shore storm and the further North. Don't see this one modeled similar at all

The wounds from that storm are still healing for many of us, so tight gradients on late-bombing storms have us gun shy.

I left my brother's house in South Jersey at around noon or so that day with the first flakes flying. I drove home with flakes in the air nearly all the way to Baltimore...then *poof*.

I knowingly drove away from a blizzard that gave my brother over a foot of snow. Pain...

(Sorry for the tangent)

[SabreAce33]

Looks like another cold, wet, and breezy fall 'noreaster for those of us on the Eastern Shore. Feel bad for the coastal communities though, they don't need more 6-10 ft. waves and 3-4 ft. of surge.