usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 nam gives dca 0.38", canadian at least 0.4" it would appear. temps are an issue though. The temps have always been and issue. Couldn't tell from the GGEM what the surface temps would be. I think it tends to run a little warm. You can't say that about the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Heres the NAM banding page. It's really good at depicting banding if .. well.. the nam is right. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ CSI and fronto isn't really overly impressive anywhere. 30-36 is when the best dynamics seem to be over our head. The best banding is well offshore and to our south and never really reaches our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oh and NAM seems to suggest best banding might be over the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 36 color from the GGEM might make it a bit easier to read -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_036.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 UKIE says nothing really for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 UKIE says nothing really for us Who gives a crap about the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 UKIE says nothing really for us Meh. I'm over the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 For those out west all of our eggs are in the GEM basket. Thats not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You've got to like the trend.... NAM came about 200 miles west in one run One run doesnt make it a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One run doesnt make it a trend RGEM and GGEM came west too. GFS held. We'll see what Euro does shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM and GGEM came west too. GFS held. We'll see what Euro does shortly. If he added in those model runs then it would more of a general agreement of a trend, but he said one run of the NAM. One run doesnt make it a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does the UKMET have any relation to what the Euro might do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW, GEFS mean shows .1 reaching Ji/Dave... .25 brushing Randy in DC... and .5 is way out on the Bay at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Love how the Euro can kick you in the gut but you still go back for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Love how the Euro can kick you in the gut but you still go back for more. The euro is the hot ex gf from hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GEFS sounds basically similar with qpf to GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GEFS sounds basically similar with qpf to GEM GEFS is a lil less then GGEM depending on where you live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Some decent VV's http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/11/06/12/GFS_3_2012110612_F33_RELV_700_MB.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/11/06/12/GFS_3_2012110612_F36_RELV_700_MB.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not sure how good our local run models are... but this will help keep the "interested" crown in it... even to the BR http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/wrf.php Simulated reflectivity tomorrow evening into night looks good for precip at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not sure how good our local run models are... but this will help keep the "interested" crown in it... even to the BR http://www.erh.noaa...._nmm12g/wrf.php Simulated reflectivity tomorrow evening into night looks good for precip at least garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is out to 12. Low is a bit more consolidated early but precip is a bit east of 0z. Not sure that means anything at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro at 18 has ~1000mb low off NC.. precip brushing coast. About 4mb deeper than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 24 has ~996 due east of SE VA/due south of central LI. Precip is a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Definitely NW of 0z by hr 30 (18z tomorrow). Still mostly light precip onshore though. Some accum near PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z Thur (hr 36) ~988 due south of LI due east of DE, kinda stationary.Light precip back to BR, .1"+ DC east... .25" about bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 42, low pulling east... due south of RI. 4-8" snow NE MD east of bay to around PHL. kinda same area as 12z y-day. some accum back to DC/HGR (beginning of 1" contour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z Thur (hr 36) ~988 due south of LI due east of DE, kinda stationary.Light precip back to BR, .1"+ DC east... .25" about bay. cold enough for snow based on those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yea looking at SV maps, Euro definitely came west, I think we can call it a trend once again, just in the opposite direction this time. Interested to see what tonights 0z's will have in store. I do like the orientation of the trough and h5 heights better on this run of the Euro, and the storm is a bit stronger again sub 990, so the NW side could be underestimated as we've seen in some cases. I'm optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 cold enough for snow based on those maps? 30s.. marginal as it's been. verbatim freezing line never gets that close to the areas it shows accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 42, low pulling east... due south of RI. 4-8" snow NE MD east of bay to around PHL. kinda same area as 12z y-day. some accum back to DC/HGR (beginning of 1" contour) So how much total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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