Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM and GGEM came west too. GFS held. We'll see what Euro does shortly. If he added in those model runs then it would more of a general agreement of a trend, but he said one run of the NAM. One run doesnt make it a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Does the UKMET have any relation to what the Euro might do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 FWIW, GEFS mean shows .1 reaching Ji/Dave... .25 brushing Randy in DC... and .5 is way out on the Bay at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Love how the Euro can kick you in the gut but you still go back for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Love how the Euro can kick you in the gut but you still go back for more. The euro is the hot ex gf from hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GEFS sounds basically similar with qpf to GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GEFS sounds basically similar with qpf to GEM GEFS is a lil less then GGEM depending on where you live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Some decent VV's http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/11/06/12/GFS_3_2012110612_F33_RELV_700_MB.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2012/11/06/12/GFS_3_2012110612_F36_RELV_700_MB.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not sure how good our local run models are... but this will help keep the "interested" crown in it... even to the BR http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/lwx_nmm12g/wrf.php Simulated reflectivity tomorrow evening into night looks good for precip at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not sure how good our local run models are... but this will help keep the "interested" crown in it... even to the BR http://www.erh.noaa...._nmm12g/wrf.php Simulated reflectivity tomorrow evening into night looks good for precip at least garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro is out to 12. Low is a bit more consolidated early but precip is a bit east of 0z. Not sure that means anything at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro at 18 has ~1000mb low off NC.. precip brushing coast. About 4mb deeper than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 24 has ~996 due east of SE VA/due south of central LI. Precip is a bit further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Definitely NW of 0z by hr 30 (18z tomorrow). Still mostly light precip onshore though. Some accum near PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z Thur (hr 36) ~988 due south of LI due east of DE, kinda stationary.Light precip back to BR, .1"+ DC east... .25" about bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 42, low pulling east... due south of RI. 4-8" snow NE MD east of bay to around PHL. kinda same area as 12z y-day. some accum back to DC/HGR (beginning of 1" contour) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0z Thur (hr 36) ~988 due south of LI due east of DE, kinda stationary.Light precip back to BR, .1"+ DC east... .25" about bay. cold enough for snow based on those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yea looking at SV maps, Euro definitely came west, I think we can call it a trend once again, just in the opposite direction this time. Interested to see what tonights 0z's will have in store. I do like the orientation of the trough and h5 heights better on this run of the Euro, and the storm is a bit stronger again sub 990, so the NW side could be underestimated as we've seen in some cases. I'm optimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 cold enough for snow based on those maps? 30s.. marginal as it's been. verbatim freezing line never gets that close to the areas it shows accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 42, low pulling east... due south of RI. 4-8" snow NE MD east of bay to around PHL. kinda same area as 12z y-day. some accum back to DC/HGR (beginning of 1" contour) So how much total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 30s.. marginal as it's been. verbatim freezing line never gets that close to the areas it shows accumulation. k, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 1"+ qpf gets into parts of S DE, very SE MD near shore. .75" to east side of bay. .5" to west side of bay. .25" cuts mostly n/s thru DC area. .1" to BR/HGR/RICish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 1"+ qpf gets into parts of S DE, very SE MD near shore. .75" to east side of bay. .5" to west side of bay. .25" cuts mostly n/s thru DC area. .1" to BR/HGR/RICish. 2-4 looks like a good call for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 2-4 looks like a good call for me I'd agree, our longitude is about 20-30 miles from .75" QPF on this run, so if the trend isn't over, you even could bump that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 2-4 looks like a good call for me Agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 2" snow contour starts just NE of DC, 3" just NE of Balt. 4-8" same area as noted.. far NE MD, N DE, SE PA, W NJ. Another spot NW CT to SE NY, Central Mass, E ME. 1" HGR to just west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. Agreed Ian, I'd say we need a little more west on 0z bringing the band that touches the Western Shore over the I95 beltway, if that occurred places would be in much better shape. Though we aren't far from that, so if things continue west, we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 QPF totals sound Nam-ish. Double E rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Main prob is none of the 6 hr panels are particularly heavy over most of the area. .1" over that period might not do much unless it falls in 5 minutes. NE MD looks a bit better. I think that is a legit concern and is the reason I still don't like any accumulation in our area....flakes maybe but even that is not certain with light precip...I doubt we see accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.