mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Not true, Nam loses to the gfs and the sref ens mean qpf for .25 and .50 thresholds at 36 hrs and to the euro and gfs at 48 hrs. It even loses at 24 hrs. http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_36h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_48h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_24h_nec.gif That just seems like a nice way of saying that the NAM sucks, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ah, thanks Wes. Your post will be quote worthy in the future. I stand corrected. Of course that doesn't mean the nam will be more wrong this time though I'd still bet on the gfs and euro solutions. The tight gradient does make this storm worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GGEM way west, like Euro was 2 days ago. Can't post from my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That just seems like a nice way of saying that the NAM sucks, Wes. Not always, it it has a good surface low position in winter it will have the better temp profiles. The trouble is making generalizations about models. The NAM is also better at getting a feel for lakes effect snows. ost models have strengths and weaknesses. Plus even though the other models score better for QPF, the scores are not so much higher that the nam has no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Of course that doesn't mean the nam will be more wrong this time though I'd still bet on the gfs and euro solutions. The tight gradient does make this storm worth watching. For us further east yes... those west of the BR are on the outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Holy smokes CMC Edit: not that it matters, but CMC is way west and huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Holy smokes CMC Can you be more specific? ---as we have people from many areas of the Mid-atlantic here, I need to see if "Holy smokes" is good for me. (lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Can you be more specific? ---as we have people from many areas of the Mid-atlantic here, I need to see if "Holy smokes" is good for me. (lol). can you take a screen shot of cmc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 CMC at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like 1 cm of precip in 6 hours between 18z Wed and 0z Thurs all the way west to Leesburg. A bit more after that as well, particularly east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Can you be more specific? ---as we have people from many areas of the Mid-atlantic here, I need to see if "Holy smokes" is good for me. (lol). I live near 95, in columbia and yes its a good hit. Surprisingly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 link to CMC for those who don't have it http://www.canadianweather.org/models/rgem12.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 link to CMC for those who don't have it http://www.canadianw...dels/rgem12.php thats the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 thats the RGEM You can click to the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The feel is a lot better than at 12z yesterday. The evil euro lurks around the corner. GGEM?UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 link to CMC for those who don't have it http://www.canadianw...dels/rgem12.php CMC link, precip type. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 thats the RGEM Oh, my bad... oh wait, the CMC is still there. http://www.canadianweather.org/models/gem12.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 CMC link, precip type. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Thanks! I was just trying to help limit the "can someone post the CMC" questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You can click to the other models my bad, me no good with computa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Meh. If the gfs/nam was in, I'd feel good. I can't get overly excited about the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Meh. If the gfs/nam was in, I'd feel good. I can't get overly excited about the ggem You've got to like the trend.... NAM came about 200 miles west in one run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Lol CMC is a real weenie run for interior nj and sne let me tell ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GGEM h7 maps show moisture over the area at 48, but its very light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Meh. If the gfs/nam was in, I'd feel good. I can't get overly excited about the ggem Normally I'm with you on that. For the most part I don't even look at anything other than gfs/euro/nam/sref. The only takeaway here is that it shows how close it is. And we know what "can" happen with systems like this. They can surprise once in a while. But it's easy to be pessimistic given the last couple winters and unfortunately a pessimistic forecast has the highest chance at being right. Not out of the game though. That's good enough to stay interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You've got to like the trend.... NAM came about 200 miles west in one run nam gives dca 0.38", canadian at least 0.4" it would appear. temps are an issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 nam gives dca 0.38", canadian at least 0.4" it would appear. temps are an issue though. Agree.. but I would take 1-2 inches of sloppy wet snow and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm tempted to wildly vacillate with each model run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro will tell us if the trend is real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Euro will tell us if the trend is real. Agree..... if Euro comes west, I think this will keep trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Agree.. but I would take 1-2 inches of sloppy wet snow and run with it If temps are an issue then you probably wouldn't even get that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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