TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Being in a window where even a slight west trend means more significant snowfall is spectacular. Can't complain. Remember this is a bombing low, nw area of the low will likely feature a strong thin band of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z RGEM is a HUGE hit for Philly & way colder than NAM, RGEM is ideal track for our area. Bombs far enough east that it's cold, and it's west enough to get a lot of QPF in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z RGEM is a HUGE hit for Philly & way colder than NAM, RGEM is ideal track for our area. Bombs far enough east that it's cold, and it's west enough to get a lot of QPF in our area Pretty dry back this way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It feels like if the moisture is to get pulled in further West then so does the warmer air. Double edged sword now I think.... and to BT....i stopped keeping track because it was an awful winter...I think the total out here was about 3-4" Remember on those types of posts to try and get those in the banter threads in the future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Double bust. Down with Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Double bust. Down with Wes! Well, you did tell him to make it snow last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like a building consensus that DC will be on the western fringe of the heaviest. Most of the time we see a mega band set up on the NW edge and pound those whining about being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks a building consensus that DC will be on the western fringe of the heaviest. Most of the time we see a mega band set up on the NW edge and pound those whining about being fringed. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 12z RGEM is a HUGE hit for Philly & way colder than NAM, RGEM is ideal track for our area. Bombs far enough east that it's cold, and it's west enough to get a lot of QPF in our area Yay for you and all, but this is NOT the Philly subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like GFS is a bit east of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like GFS is a bit east of 6z later panels may not be bad per 7H RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Double bust. Down with Wes! Well, the 09Z srefs does not yet think it is over so who knows. Notre it does have a couple members west of the mean, far enough west to produce heavy precip over DC. At this time range, I'd probably lean more towards the regular global models as my leading ensemble group and would lean more towards whatever the euro and gfs do than the nam, but the srefs say don't give up yet the Bob Chill and Mapgirl contingent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 later panels may not be bad per 7H RH just missed, but there's still some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like GFS is a bit east of 6z Looks like identical to 6z GFS, the precip shield is a smidge different, but all in all, fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like identical to 6z GFS, the precip shield is a smidge different, but all in all, fairly similar. yeah, it was just a hair, maybe 5-10 miles, just a wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Still plenty of time for an expansion of the precip to the NW. The storm is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is there a skill set with the RGEM? Like how it compares to GFS and NAM and SREFs within 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Peeking at the GFS, it looks like this thing bombs just a bit late. Whether deepening a few hours earlier would make a big difference in track, I don't really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is there a skill set with the RGEM? Like how it compares to GFS and NAM and SREFs within 48 hrs? I've heard it had comparable scores to the NAM.... I think Allan in the southeast thread mentioned it last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Peeking at the GFS, it looks like this thing bombs just a bit late. Whether deepening a few hours earlier would make a big difference in track, I don't really know. It might mean a more expansive precip field if it bombs earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like maybe .1-.15" for DCA and .2" for BWI on the GFS. Clown maps have it as snow FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is there a skill set with the RGEM? Like how it compares to GFS and NAM and SREFs within 48 hrs? That's a good question, one that I can't answer. I've never given it as much weight as the other models but that may be a personal bias more than it being less skillful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like maybe .1-.15" for DCA and .2" for BWI on the GFS. Clown maps have it as snow FWIW. Yup. 1" for DCA. 2-3" for BWI (tough to tell with gradient) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like maybe .1-.15" for DCA and .2" for BWI on the GFS. Clown maps have it as snow FWIW. that's more than what fell all of last year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 that's more than what fell all of last year lol I had 3.2" last year thank you very much! I'd love to jump start this year's total with something comparable to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Tough forecast at BWI and DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yup. 1" for DCA. 2-3" for BWI (tough to tell with gradient) You'd have to get banding and be in a zone of heavier precip to get that much accumulation. Surface temps above freezing with light precip won't accumulate. Gotta get enough melting to cool the surface sufficiently to get snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 IIRC- this is the time to weight the nam over the gfs on the finer details right? Not saying the GFS is wrong. Just that if you have to hedge inside of 48 hours the odds favor the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 IIRC- this is the time to weight the nam over the gfs on the finer details right? Not saying the GFS is wrong. Just that if you have to hedge inside of 48 hours the odds favor the nam. Not true, Nam loses to the gfs and the sref ens mean qpf for .25 and .50 thresholds at 36 hrs and to the euro and gfs at 48 hrs. It even loses at 24 hrs. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_36h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_48h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_24h_nec.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ah, thanks Wes. Your post will be quote worthy in the future. I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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