MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Holy smokes at the GFS ensembles? This can't be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You guys realize some, if not most of the GFS ensembles give you a solid snowstorm. They also have a lower resolution and can be a bit more phase happy than the operational. Not saying whether it will or will not happen, just giving perspective on using the ensembles, especially at this short of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 They also have a lower resolution and can be a bit more phase happy than the operational. Not saying whether or not it will or will not happen, just giving perspective on using the ensembles, especially at this short of range. Per the maps I saw this morning - I'm remaining hopeful since I'm still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 They also have a lower resolution and can be a bit more phase happy than the operational. Not saying whether or not it will or will not happen, just giving perspective on using the ensembles, especially at this short of range. I know you know this, but just for clarification, that's true for the GEFS, not the Euro ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know you know this, but just for clarification, that's true for the GEFS, not the Euro ensemble. Indeed. A good note to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I know you know this, but just for clarification, that's true for the GEFS, not the Euro ensemble. Which part are you referring to (I assume the "phase happy part")? Both the GEFS and ECEns members are run at lower resolution than their parent deterministic model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Per the maps I saw this morning - I'm remaining hopeful since I'm still in the game. Im with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Which part are you referring to (I assume the "phase happy part")? Both the GEFS and ECEns members are run at lower resolution than their parent deterministic model runs. Yeah, sorry. I should have clarified. Euro ensemble is roughly the same resolution as the GFS op and is not as "phase happy" as the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I suppose it would be pretty typical for the models to adjust back a bit west after all going east last night. Seems to happen a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I almost feel the opposite can be true with the GEFS. I've seen them many times be too far east with a coastal low. However, I suppose it is possible for different members to be perturbed in a way where some are phase happy and it skews the mean in certain instances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I almost feel the opposite can be true with the GEFS. I've seen them many times be too far east with a coastal low. However, I suppose it is possible for different members to be perturbed in a way where some are phase happy and it skews the mean in certain instances. Except that the GEFS isn't perturbed in the same was as say something like the SREF (where you get clustering because of model diversity). There is a stochastic tendency scheme that is used in the GEFS (basically the tendencies are perturbed), but it is random (i.e. it shouldn't systematically skew the model toward being more/less phase happy in a mean/statistical sense). Issues with the GEFS individual solutions would have way more to do with the physics are behaving (which are not re-tuned down for the lower resolution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Except that the GEFS isn't perturbed in the same was as say something like the SREF (where you get clustering because of model diversity). There is a stochastic tendency scheme that is used in the GEFS (basically the tendencies are perturbed), but it is random (i.e. it shouldn't systematically skew the model toward being more/less phase happy in a mean/statistical sense). Issues with the GEFS individual solutions would have way more to do with the physics are behaving (which are not re-tuned down for the lower resolution). What I meant was that whatever the reason a few members may be amped up vs the majority, it may cause the mean to shift more to the left or closer to the coast. My wording may have been off. While not always the case, I treat the ensembles as a red flag that the op run might be too far east if the op run really deviates east from the mean. More often than not, the ensembles can be east of the op run at day 4 or 5....but at this stage, it's probably wise to move towards deterministic models, although SREFs can be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is a bit west and wrapping up quicker but, Baltimore/DC get fringed pretty bad still, the NWS made a comparison of this storm to December 2010 with the tight precipitation gradient like I did on here yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is a bit west and wrapping up quicker but, Baltimore/DC get fringed pretty bad still, the NWS made a comparison of this storm to December 2010 with the tight precipitation gradient like I did on here yesterday. It shifted almost 150 miles from the 6z run. Just another shift of 70 more miles would be nice...unless it's east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I suppose the verdict isn't out yet. Here's the comparison of the latest nam and gfs to their previous cylce (newest on the left). Still not there but there is no proverbial fork stuck in us yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is way west of previous run....... give me 50 more miles and its showtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I guess if a bit is 200 miles in 6 hours Are these results from lack of dropsonde data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is a bit west and wrapping up quicker but, Baltimore/DC get fringed pretty bad still, the NWS made a comparison of this storm to December 2010 with the tight precipitation gradient like I did on here yesterday. That's a pretty good move around the 36 hr time, IMO. Couple more like that and DC and BALT might get some snow out of it. Seems to slow it down a touch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's a pretty good move around the 36 hr time, IMO. Couple more like that and DC and BALT might get some snow out of it. Seems to slow it down a touch as well. Yes. Another shift and they are in the game. We unfortunately are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Are these results from lack of dropsonde data? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yes. Another shift and they are in the game. We unfortunately are not. Agreed, I am on the western shore of the bay and receive a total around .50-.55 in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is way west of previous run....... give me 50 more miles and its showtime Where is the cold air, looks alot warmer than the euro and gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's a pretty good move around the 36 hr time, IMO. Couple more like that and DC and BALT might get some snow out of it. Seems to slow it down a touch as well. Im not relying on a model with this, Im gonna go with my gut and say its like Dec 2010...west of the Bay get fringed, with the eastern shore getting heavier precipitation....problem for them, is they probably wont be cold enough to get a sig accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Clicking and comparing h5 panels shows that the models are still having trouble handling the interaction with the trailing shortwave. I suppose we can expect the noticeable run to run differences until it is resolved. Quite a tricky system shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Are these results from lack of dropsonde data? Clearly they don't have a handle on the norlun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The models always seem to do this with coastals. They move way too far one way or the other and then come halfway back over the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM does get some precip even back here but it's warm up top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is really encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM is encouraging but we have literally zero room to go even a millimeter eastward. On the flip side, my weenie memory is telling me to add 50+/- miles NW with the precip shield and it is a more likely outcome. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Leesburg04, is your sig right? Was that really all we got last winter? "Winter 2011-12 October 29th - Early season snow/sleet- 1.2" January 3rd - Trace from lake effect streamer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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