TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's history. Well at least we now have model agreement. At least wait until the major models come into agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least wait until the major models come into agreement They're no match for the GENIUS that is Mr. B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least wait until the major models come into agreement 36hrs out it shouldn't be that hard to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I sure wasn't and think I said thought snow was a long shot yesterday when the euro actually looked good. Timing issues and boundary layer problems have always made this low probably event, not impossible, but not likely. That still holds with the probability still low and shrinking unless the euro or GFS jog back west. The euro ensembles had precip back to DC land last night...a tough combo to beat. But, you could tell the danger was getting fringed with the moisture as the precip probs dropped off like a rock west of 95. Even the GFS went west at 12z, but needed more work to do for you guys. I would not be shocked at the GFS coming west, but I think you guys really need this low to bomb near the coast like earlier euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 36hrs out it shouldn't be that hard to figure out. You should know better that these things are never locked in until the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We aren't getting any snow from this. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 usually when I post in here I try not to be as IMOBY about it since most do not live where I do. Sometimes my inner weenie comes out though. Also, if I am going to be wrong I would rather be wrong saying it wont snow then be surprised in a good way, then to always expect it to snow and be let down over and over and over again (see JI). If I were actually having to make a forecast for the public I would probably have to rethink that approach but I am free of the burden of public safety considerations. eh, nobody really cares unless you're red tagged, or a Professional Weenie like Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Agreed. I am the best forecaster on the American Weather Forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I never really bought this one and am usually one of the more foolishly optimistic. It just seemed all the eggs had to be placed in one model's basket as it had very little if any support. Just the way I saw it. Of course I'm still hoping for a miracle. Dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 552 DM h5 low closed off in RIC? but most of the s/w energy is in the ATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I never really bought this one and am usually one the more foolishly optimistic Yeah but who would of thought it would be due to suppression rather than warm temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0Z GFS says goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The QPF field is strangely sparse despite a good low pressure track on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah but who would of thought it would be due to suppression rather than warm temperatures? I know there's a big difference between my location and DC wrt temps during a marginal event, but I've always felt that I miss more events because of lack of precip than lack of cold. Sure if it's 50 and rain you could say its temps but that's not really what we are talking about. Events like that never had a chance to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The QPF field is strangely sparse despite a good low pressure track on the 0z GFS. not sure what you see...it looks like a strung out mess at H5 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 not sure what you see...it looks like a strung out mess at H5 to me While I agree, i'm not willing to take this run verbatim until waiting for the euro. GFS is well known for suppression bias. You only need to look back a couple weeks ago when it had Sandy going way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 They're no match for the GENIUS that is Mr. B Oh man I am so glad that I am stupid, oh wait. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maybe some of the coastal cities will get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oh man I am so glad that I am stupid, oh wait. No. Right cause you had any basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 While I agree, i'm not willing to take this run verbatim until waiting for the euro. GFS is well known for suppression bias. You only need to look back a couple weeks ago when it had Sandy going way out to sea. I think the evidence is becoming stacked against us here...the RGEM/NAM/SREF/UKMET/GFS now all east, the 12z euro is all we have left that gives any precip to the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Right cause you had any basis The basis the the NAM has been east all long the RGEM made a significant move east, the RAP showed a pretty flat S/W at 18hrs and this set up is just not good. The incoming trough is way too flat to pull this thing in far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Call it. See ya for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Call it. See ya for the next one. I'm done after Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am glad I made two different calls so I'd be right either way. The DT method. This business is a piece of cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least we know next run won't be telling because this stories already been told. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm done after Euro The 500 pattern has totally gone to crap. We have several distinct vorts dancing around like an ugly gyre. Those trends don't fix themselves once they go bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Call it. See ya for the next one. That was the quickest ending of all time. Went from 0Z last night looking good, 12Z not bad, and 0Z tonight, disaster struck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That was the quickest ending of all time. Went from 0Z last night looking good, 12Z not bad, and 0Z tonight, disaster struck. Hopefully people will blast the Euro for a few days to get back for last week's overpraise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 500 pattern has totally gone to crap. We have several distinct vorts dancing around like an ugly gyre. Those trends don't fix themselves once they go bad. The garage is filling up with exhaust I'm feeling lightheaded. I can see the light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That was the quickest ending of all time. Went from 0Z last night looking good, 12Z not bad, and 0Z tonight, disaster struck. The big shift in the 12z Euro was the beginning of the end. The 18z U.S. model runs pretty much sealed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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