Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I never really bought this one and am usually one the more foolishly optimistic Yeah but who would of thought it would be due to suppression rather than warm temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 0Z GFS says goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The QPF field is strangely sparse despite a good low pressure track on the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah but who would of thought it would be due to suppression rather than warm temperatures? I know there's a big difference between my location and DC wrt temps during a marginal event, but I've always felt that I miss more events because of lack of precip than lack of cold. Sure if it's 50 and rain you could say its temps but that's not really what we are talking about. Events like that never had a chance to be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The QPF field is strangely sparse despite a good low pressure track on the 0z GFS. not sure what you see...it looks like a strung out mess at H5 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 not sure what you see...it looks like a strung out mess at H5 to me While I agree, i'm not willing to take this run verbatim until waiting for the euro. GFS is well known for suppression bias. You only need to look back a couple weeks ago when it had Sandy going way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 They're no match for the GENIUS that is Mr. B Oh man I am so glad that I am stupid, oh wait. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maybe some of the coastal cities will get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Oh man I am so glad that I am stupid, oh wait. No. Right cause you had any basis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 While I agree, i'm not willing to take this run verbatim until waiting for the euro. GFS is well known for suppression bias. You only need to look back a couple weeks ago when it had Sandy going way out to sea. I think the evidence is becoming stacked against us here...the RGEM/NAM/SREF/UKMET/GFS now all east, the 12z euro is all we have left that gives any precip to the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Right cause you had any basis The basis the the NAM has been east all long the RGEM made a significant move east, the RAP showed a pretty flat S/W at 18hrs and this set up is just not good. The incoming trough is way too flat to pull this thing in far enough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Call it. See ya for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Call it. See ya for the next one. I'm done after Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am glad I made two different calls so I'd be right either way. The DT method. This business is a piece of cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least we know next run won't be telling because this stories already been told. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm done after Euro The 500 pattern has totally gone to crap. We have several distinct vorts dancing around like an ugly gyre. Those trends don't fix themselves once they go bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Call it. See ya for the next one. That was the quickest ending of all time. Went from 0Z last night looking good, 12Z not bad, and 0Z tonight, disaster struck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That was the quickest ending of all time. Went from 0Z last night looking good, 12Z not bad, and 0Z tonight, disaster struck. Hopefully people will blast the Euro for a few days to get back for last week's overpraise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 500 pattern has totally gone to crap. We have several distinct vorts dancing around like an ugly gyre. Those trends don't fix themselves once they go bad. The garage is filling up with exhaust I'm feeling lightheaded. I can see the light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That was the quickest ending of all time. Went from 0Z last night looking good, 12Z not bad, and 0Z tonight, disaster struck. The big shift in the 12z Euro was the beginning of the end. The 18z U.S. model runs pretty much sealed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hopefully the blocking trend over the past few months continues into the winter. If so, we'll get ours when climo becomes more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Something big could happen. I wouldn't write it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The 500 pattern has totally gone to crap. We have several distinct vorts dancing around like an ugly gyre. Those trends don't fix themselves once they go bad. All that is left is for it to turn into a SNE blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Hopefully people will blast the Euro for a few days to get back for last week's overpraise. I mean even the GGEM and GFS showed decent hits at some points, so they all need to get blasted. NAM actually had it right the whole time. Shockingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All that is left is for it to turn into a SNE blizzard. Never a bad thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 To be honest this was always like playing draw poker, holding an ace, and drawing 4 cards hoping for a solid hand. Today might have sealed the deal, but the hand was in trouble a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I mean even the GGEM and GFS showed decent hits at some points, so they all need to get blasted. NAM actually had it right the whole time. Shockingly. Ill stand by the NAM not being good outside 24-48. Ppl point to 09-10 but every model showed snow then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 To be honest this was always like playing draw poker, holding an ace, and drawing 4 cards hoping for a solid hand. Today might have sealed the deal, but the hand was in trouble a couple of days ago. It depends on what you were looking for. You were never getting 12", that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I mean even the GGEM and GFS showed decent hits at some points, so they all need to get blasted. NAM actually had it right the whole time. Shockingly. Depends on where you are. Neither ever had much of anything past 81 and that was a stretch. I wanted to believe the Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It depends on what you were looking for. You were never getting 12", that's true. Exactly. I was hoping for a couple of inches and that was a stretch. Ay, what the heck, it's only Nov 5. Our good winter will get going soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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