PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 psuhoffman always shows up when it is time to declare the storm dead and write the post-mortem report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? I have not abandoned ship, but I was skeptical even before. I think there was some confidence because of the results with Sandy and the Euro being consistent but I have seen this type of setup before. Needing a storm to bomb like this and pull in from the east almost...its very rare that it works out...and more often then not something does not go exactly right and the phasing or timing is just a little off and it does not bomb out in time for our area. Being in the furthest south and west of the megalopolis we need the most amplified solution in these situations and that is just never likely. I also thing some people confuse the "north" trend with a "west" trend. I have found over the years that there is definitely a tendancy in many storms for models to trend north over time with the H5 features and thus the storm track. This is not as true of a west trend...when a storm is too far east for our area its more rare to get it to trend west. All of that said... I have not given up that this might pop faster then normal and give us all a surprise, it happens...everyone throws around Jan 2000 and there was a storm in Feb of 1996 where we all went to bed thinking the NJ coast might get snow and woke up to a 6-12" snow in DC as the low bombed out 200 miles west of where models said only 6 hours out. I just feel like its a long shot...and was even before the 18z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GOM is closed for business, any GOM moisture is flung out to the east of the low and the west side, just west of the deformation zone has dry downsloping. The moisture convergence is north-south oriented so that precip has a sharp cut off on the west side. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=US&isingle=multiple&itype=wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The bus is idling at mapgirl's place for now. Well I'm not getting into the thing, she has already said "I'm pretty emotional now. It will only get worse" I'll take my chances with another bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 psuhoffman always shows up when it is time to declare the storm dead and write the post-mortem report. weren't you the one saying we weren't going to get snow from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well I'm not getting into the thing, she has already said "I'm pretty emotional now. It will only get worse" I'll take my chances with another bus. But, I may see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But, I may see snow I hope so but....think it's still an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well I'm not getting into the thing, she has already said "I'm pretty emotional now. It will only get worse" I'll take my chances with another bus. You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. I can't wait for our first snow to happen so people can get this pent up frustration out of the way. Its going to be a rough in here with every missed opportunity until we get one after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. Lol, like the MLK phantom storm? I don't think this is yet the storm for one. I guess we better go back to actually discussing the storm. NAM sucks, next up GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 psuhoffman always shows up when it is time to declare the storm dead and write the post-mortem report. What I've noticed is whenever he shows up and acts negative, he get slammed afterwords, usually with more than everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. I predict any moment we will get our first weenie post claiming the radar or water vapor shows the models are not correctly depicting the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope so but....think it's still an uphill battle. True, I'll try not to cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope so but....think it's still an uphill battle. The NAM 500 map looks pretty terrible. Hopefully the GFS finally jumps to last night's Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All I know is that the NAM hasn't done well so far this year, and the Euro has done the best... Yes it has shifted, but who is to say it won't shift back, or the GFS won't either. After last winter, I have learned to not expect snow and to not hug the models like a snow-starved lunatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. Don't worry I'm sending drones after all buses following election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. You have a pretty good track record with this... I feel better already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What I've noticed is whenever he shows up and acts negative, he get slammed afterwords, usually with more than everyone else. It's ok I am used to it from him, besides I don't see it as negative its just pragmatism. It is very rare we get a major snow event in this area and so I am usually skeptical and looking for what can go wrong instead of what can go right. It works most of the time. When I am bullish you will know and I have gone out on a limp sometimes way out when I think a setup looks promising for our area. I also understand that when people are rooting with their heart and not their head they do not want to hear the reasons why the storm may not happen, especially at the moment when things are falling apart. That said...I call it like I see it. I am wrong plenty of times about plenty of things and perhaps this storm will be one of them. I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's ok I am used to it from him, besides I don't see it as negative its just pragmatism. It is very rare we get a major snow event in this area and so I am usually skeptical and looking for what can go wrong instead of what can go right. It works most of the time. When I am bullish you will know and I have gone out on a limp sometimes way out when I think a setup looks promising for our area. I also understand that when people are rooting with their heart and not their head they do not want to hear the reasons why the storm may not happen, especially at the moment when things are falling apart. That said...I call it like I see it. I am wrong plenty of times about plenty of things and perhaps this storm will be one of them. I hope so. You are legendary as one of the very few posters who had a storm named after him that actually panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't think anyone was planning on the Euro to verify. It's not like major snowstorm or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's ok I am used to it from him, besides I don't see it as negative its just pragmatism. It is very rare we get a major snow event in this area and so I am usually skeptical and looking for what can go wrong instead of what can go right. It works most of the time. When I am bullish you will know and I have gone out on a limp sometimes way out when I think a setup looks promising for our area. I also understand that when people are rooting with their heart and not their head they do not want to hear the reasons why the storm may not happen, especially at the moment when things are falling apart. That said...I call it like I see it. I am wrong plenty of times about plenty of things and perhaps this storm will be one of them. I hope so. True, don't get me wrong, I usually like your posts because they're well thought out. Maybe it's your awesome elevation/climo but I've noticed you're sometimes wrong in a good way and get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't think anyone was planning on the Euro to verify. It's not like major snowstorm or nothing. I'll take my November flurries and love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You are legendary as one of the very few posters who had a storm named after him that actually panned out. I remember everyone was getting frustrated at me for downplaying all those little shortwaves that were going north of us the weeks before that storm, so when I finally said I liked the setup for something a few people jumped all over it. If that storm had not worked out there might have been an angry mob at my door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't think anyone was planning on the Euro to verify. It's not like major snowstorm or nothing. I sure wasn't and think I said thought snow was a long shot yesterday when the euro actually looked good. Timing issues and boundary layer problems have always made this low probably event, not impossible, but not likely. That still holds with the probability still low and shrinking unless the euro or GFS jog back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 True, don't get me wrong, I usually like your posts because they're well thought out. Maybe it's your awesome elevation/climo but I've noticed you're sometimes wrong in a good way and get slammed. usually when I post in here I try not to be as IMOBY about it since most do not live where I do. Sometimes my inner weenie comes out though. Also, if I am going to be wrong I would rather be wrong saying it wont snow then be surprised in a good way, then to always expect it to snow and be let down over and over and over again (see JI). If I were actually having to make a forecast for the public I would probably have to rethink that approach but I am free of the burden of public safety considerations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM says negatory for pretty much anyone through 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM says negatory for pretty much anyone through 39 It's history. Well at least we now have model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. Whoa I like you today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's history. Well at least we now have model agreement. You know the next 0z EURO already?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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