usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. Lol, like the MLK phantom storm? I don't think this is yet the storm for one. I guess we better go back to actually discussing the storm. NAM sucks, next up GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 psuhoffman always shows up when it is time to declare the storm dead and write the post-mortem report. What I've noticed is whenever he shows up and acts negative, he get slammed afterwords, usually with more than everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. I predict any moment we will get our first weenie post claiming the radar or water vapor shows the models are not correctly depicting the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope so but....think it's still an uphill battle. True, I'll try not to cry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I hope so but....think it's still an uphill battle. The NAM 500 map looks pretty terrible. Hopefully the GFS finally jumps to last night's Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 All I know is that the NAM hasn't done well so far this year, and the Euro has done the best... Yes it has shifted, but who is to say it won't shift back, or the GFS won't either. After last winter, I have learned to not expect snow and to not hug the models like a snow-starved lunatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. Don't worry I'm sending drones after all buses following election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. You have a pretty good track record with this... I feel better already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What I've noticed is whenever he shows up and acts negative, he get slammed afterwords, usually with more than everyone else. It's ok I am used to it from him, besides I don't see it as negative its just pragmatism. It is very rare we get a major snow event in this area and so I am usually skeptical and looking for what can go wrong instead of what can go right. It works most of the time. When I am bullish you will know and I have gone out on a limp sometimes way out when I think a setup looks promising for our area. I also understand that when people are rooting with their heart and not their head they do not want to hear the reasons why the storm may not happen, especially at the moment when things are falling apart. That said...I call it like I see it. I am wrong plenty of times about plenty of things and perhaps this storm will be one of them. I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's ok I am used to it from him, besides I don't see it as negative its just pragmatism. It is very rare we get a major snow event in this area and so I am usually skeptical and looking for what can go wrong instead of what can go right. It works most of the time. When I am bullish you will know and I have gone out on a limp sometimes way out when I think a setup looks promising for our area. I also understand that when people are rooting with their heart and not their head they do not want to hear the reasons why the storm may not happen, especially at the moment when things are falling apart. That said...I call it like I see it. I am wrong plenty of times about plenty of things and perhaps this storm will be one of them. I hope so. You are legendary as one of the very few posters who had a storm named after him that actually panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't think anyone was planning on the Euro to verify. It's not like major snowstorm or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's ok I am used to it from him, besides I don't see it as negative its just pragmatism. It is very rare we get a major snow event in this area and so I am usually skeptical and looking for what can go wrong instead of what can go right. It works most of the time. When I am bullish you will know and I have gone out on a limp sometimes way out when I think a setup looks promising for our area. I also understand that when people are rooting with their heart and not their head they do not want to hear the reasons why the storm may not happen, especially at the moment when things are falling apart. That said...I call it like I see it. I am wrong plenty of times about plenty of things and perhaps this storm will be one of them. I hope so. True, don't get me wrong, I usually like your posts because they're well thought out. Maybe it's your awesome elevation/climo but I've noticed you're sometimes wrong in a good way and get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't think anyone was planning on the Euro to verify. It's not like major snowstorm or nothing. I'll take my November flurries and love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You are legendary as one of the very few posters who had a storm named after him that actually panned out. I remember everyone was getting frustrated at me for downplaying all those little shortwaves that were going north of us the weeks before that storm, so when I finally said I liked the setup for something a few people jumped all over it. If that storm had not worked out there might have been an angry mob at my door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I don't think anyone was planning on the Euro to verify. It's not like major snowstorm or nothing. I sure wasn't and think I said thought snow was a long shot yesterday when the euro actually looked good. Timing issues and boundary layer problems have always made this low probably event, not impossible, but not likely. That still holds with the probability still low and shrinking unless the euro or GFS jog back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 True, don't get me wrong, I usually like your posts because they're well thought out. Maybe it's your awesome elevation/climo but I've noticed you're sometimes wrong in a good way and get slammed. usually when I post in here I try not to be as IMOBY about it since most do not live where I do. Sometimes my inner weenie comes out though. Also, if I am going to be wrong I would rather be wrong saying it wont snow then be surprised in a good way, then to always expect it to snow and be let down over and over and over again (see JI). If I were actually having to make a forecast for the public I would probably have to rethink that approach but I am free of the burden of public safety considerations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM says negatory for pretty much anyone through 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM says negatory for pretty much anyone through 39 It's history. Well at least we now have model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. Whoa I like you today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's history. Well at least we now have model agreement. You know the next 0z EURO already?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's history. Well at least we now have model agreement. At least wait until the major models come into agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least wait until the major models come into agreement They're no match for the GENIUS that is Mr. B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At least wait until the major models come into agreement 36hrs out it shouldn't be that hard to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I sure wasn't and think I said thought snow was a long shot yesterday when the euro actually looked good. Timing issues and boundary layer problems have always made this low probably event, not impossible, but not likely. That still holds with the probability still low and shrinking unless the euro or GFS jog back west. The euro ensembles had precip back to DC land last night...a tough combo to beat. But, you could tell the danger was getting fringed with the moisture as the precip probs dropped off like a rock west of 95. Even the GFS went west at 12z, but needed more work to do for you guys. I would not be shocked at the GFS coming west, but I think you guys really need this low to bomb near the coast like earlier euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 36hrs out it shouldn't be that hard to figure out. You should know better that these things are never locked in until the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We aren't getting any snow from this. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 usually when I post in here I try not to be as IMOBY about it since most do not live where I do. Sometimes my inner weenie comes out though. Also, if I am going to be wrong I would rather be wrong saying it wont snow then be surprised in a good way, then to always expect it to snow and be let down over and over and over again (see JI). If I were actually having to make a forecast for the public I would probably have to rethink that approach but I am free of the burden of public safety considerations. eh, nobody really cares unless you're red tagged, or a Professional Weenie like Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Agreed. I am the best forecaster on the American Weather Forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I never really bought this one and am usually one of the more foolishly optimistic. It just seemed all the eggs had to be placed in one model's basket as it had very little if any support. Just the way I saw it. Of course I'm still hoping for a miracle. Dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 552 DM h5 low closed off in RIC? but most of the s/w energy is in the ATL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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