jnis Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. Agreed...As we all know, our desires for any particular outcome have zero affect on the outcome. In the end, it is not up to us. Rooting for a particular weather outcome will have zero effect on anyone suffering. Donating to the red cross might help those who are suffering. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The next set of runs should remove most of or all of the doubt and although anything can happen, it seems the trend is for the storm to be too far east to affect us. But most of the pessimism has come about because of the latest 18z GFS run. Is that off hour run as reliable as the 0z and 12z runs statistically? The powers that be didn't order better sampling of this storm like they did with Sandy, did they? 0z could certainly come back west. After the 12z GFS the "trend" has been undeniably not a great one if you want storminess around here. That word gets thrown around too easily though... could just be a blip. The fact is we're generally not that good at storms where we need all the pieces for it to work. If you're just looking for some rain then you can go without a few I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Have to remember 18z only made the situation more clouded. If it was a consensus of consistency it came to, you would be writing this one off. Light needs to be shed on this situation. Can't lock up any solution type until tomorrow aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 He was attacking the CWG blogger for writing that maybe it's a good thing that this might miss the region. Ji is absolutely right. I agree with him. I'm still upset with Wes for not saying that a solid pasting was the most likely scenario. Worst blog post of the young winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm glad you brought this up. It's the part of the puzzle that I dont fully understand when looking at h5 maps. I kinda liked the 12z gfs because it was pulling the backside energy into a closed contour. I was hoping 18z would take it a step further but it went the other way. You think there is still a chance at better timing and interaction? I was writing it off but I'm far from the person to make that type of call. That's a tough question. I think for the DC area, you probably want to cheer on a stronger initial s/w. The reason is because it's possible the energy in the Midwest will remain separate enough to prevent phasing and bring the low further west. Now some of this energy is in Canada and it's possible that the energy may dive into the backside trough enough to carve it out further and pull the low further NW...but I think the easier thing to do atmospherically, is to have the initial srn s/w stronger. The energy as progged today is coming around the backside stronger and cutting off more than yesterday. The result is that the backside s/w sort of gives the initial s/w the boot east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maybe because people's homes and livelihoods are more highly valued than your infantile obsession with frozen precipitation. Far more infantile to think that anyone's thoughts on the matter would any way influence what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We are all domestic terrorists plotting against the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Far more infantile to think that anyone's thoughts on the matter would any way influence what happens. I was explaining why someone might say "it's good for the region if this storm misses." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well NWS mets job is just as hard but, they are not in the public spot light as much to be criticized as on air personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's a tough question. I think for the DC area, you probably want to cheer on a stronger initial s/w. The reason is because it's possible the energy in the Midwest will remain separate enough to prevent phasing and bring the low further west. Now some of this energy is in Canada and it's possible that the energy may dive into the backside trough enough to carve it out further and pull the low further NW...but I think the easier thing to do atmospherically, is to have the initial srn s/w stronger. The energy as progged today is coming around the backside stronger and cutting off more than yesterday. The result is that the backside s/w sort of gives the initial s/w the boot east. Makes complete sense. Thank you. We're awful close to the point of no return so I hope something goes our way with 0z guidance. I'll go ahead and jump on the stronger lead shortwave bandwagon right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is a good one for the NWS to screw up on. If Sandy went 300miles NE it would have been embarassing, This I think the general public will be relieved if it misses and not mad at the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the hour is upon us.... NAM is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the NAM is definitely different, phased sooner and closed off 5H over central NC, would think the SLP would be farther west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the NAM is definitely different, phased sooner and closed off 5H over central NC, would think the SLP would be farther west though. Yeah it's now digging the energy a little deeper on the backside of the trough, acting to pull the low a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah it's now digging the energy a little deeper on the backside of the trough, acting to pull the low a little more west. And the northern energy closed off at hr27, you would think this would get pulled back NW and become really strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Phase is off. Northern stream too far west to do any good in the phase. Tight closed H7 low east of Cape Hat. Nothern stream needs to work it's majic and get it over Richmond if it's going to do us any good. Storm Cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM looks a hell of a lot better overall for west track through 36 at 500 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Thru 24 the NAM changes from 18z are OK. After that not sure I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Still overall a miss through 42... but NYC and SNE looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 West, but west for SNE. Trended in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM Bombs this run despite the bad phase timing, because the low stalls over the Gulfstream. People were arguing Sandy was tropical because it was feeding off warm water. So does every noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM is pretty cold at least. This thing speed up a lot? Maybe I lost track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ehh one thing showing up on all the guidance now is that the trough is becoming less sharp due to the second shortwave diving in the backside. Instead of it all going extremely negative and pulling the storm in tight its a broad cut off low that is more strung out. Not good at all for what we need here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? The bus is idling at mapgirl's place for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? Only those who have posted too much in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The bus is idling at mapgirl's place for now. Might be time to park the bus in the garage, close the door, and clog the tailpipe soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GOM is closed for business, any GOM moisture is flung out to the east of the low and the west side, just west of the deformation zone has dry downsloping. The moisture convergence is north-south oriented so that precip has a sharp cut off on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Meh on the NAM. it doesnt even look that great from NJ north in to New England, looks like a snow to rain flip for most of them folks up there. Of course it is still 48 hr + for those folks up that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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