Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This is a good one for the NWS to screw up on. If Sandy went 300miles NE it would have been embarassing, This I think the general public will be relieved if it misses and not mad at the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the hour is upon us.... NAM is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the NAM is definitely different, phased sooner and closed off 5H over central NC, would think the SLP would be farther west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the NAM is definitely different, phased sooner and closed off 5H over central NC, would think the SLP would be farther west though. Yeah it's now digging the energy a little deeper on the backside of the trough, acting to pull the low a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah it's now digging the energy a little deeper on the backside of the trough, acting to pull the low a little more west. And the northern energy closed off at hr27, you would think this would get pulled back NW and become really strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Phase is off. Northern stream too far west to do any good in the phase. Tight closed H7 low east of Cape Hat. Nothern stream needs to work it's majic and get it over Richmond if it's going to do us any good. Storm Cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM looks a hell of a lot better overall for west track through 36 at 500 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Thru 24 the NAM changes from 18z are OK. After that not sure I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Still overall a miss through 42... but NYC and SNE looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 West, but west for SNE. Trended in the right direction at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 NAM Bombs this run despite the bad phase timing, because the low stalls over the Gulfstream. People were arguing Sandy was tropical because it was feeding off warm water. So does every noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The NAM is pretty cold at least. This thing speed up a lot? Maybe I lost track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ehh one thing showing up on all the guidance now is that the trough is becoming less sharp due to the second shortwave diving in the backside. Instead of it all going extremely negative and pulling the storm in tight its a broad cut off low that is more strung out. Not good at all for what we need here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? The bus is idling at mapgirl's place for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? Only those who have posted too much in this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The bus is idling at mapgirl's place for now. Might be time to park the bus in the garage, close the door, and clog the tailpipe soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GOM is closed for business, any GOM moisture is flung out to the east of the low and the west side, just west of the deformation zone has dry downsloping. The moisture convergence is north-south oriented so that precip has a sharp cut off on the west side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Meh on the NAM. it doesnt even look that great from NJ north in to New England, looks like a snow to rain flip for most of them folks up there. Of course it is still 48 hr + for those folks up that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 psuhoffman always shows up when it is time to declare the storm dead and write the post-mortem report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Has everyone really abandoned ship/bus because of the 18z GFS? After pretty good model consensus between the GFS and Euro at 12z? I have not abandoned ship, but I was skeptical even before. I think there was some confidence because of the results with Sandy and the Euro being consistent but I have seen this type of setup before. Needing a storm to bomb like this and pull in from the east almost...its very rare that it works out...and more often then not something does not go exactly right and the phasing or timing is just a little off and it does not bomb out in time for our area. Being in the furthest south and west of the megalopolis we need the most amplified solution in these situations and that is just never likely. I also thing some people confuse the "north" trend with a "west" trend. I have found over the years that there is definitely a tendancy in many storms for models to trend north over time with the H5 features and thus the storm track. This is not as true of a west trend...when a storm is too far east for our area its more rare to get it to trend west. All of that said... I have not given up that this might pop faster then normal and give us all a surprise, it happens...everyone throws around Jan 2000 and there was a storm in Feb of 1996 where we all went to bed thinking the NJ coast might get snow and woke up to a 6-12" snow in DC as the low bombed out 200 miles west of where models said only 6 hours out. I just feel like its a long shot...and was even before the 18z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The GOM is closed for business, any GOM moisture is flung out to the east of the low and the west side, just west of the deformation zone has dry downsloping. The moisture convergence is north-south oriented so that precip has a sharp cut off on the west side. http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellite/displaysat?region=US&isingle=multiple&itype=wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The bus is idling at mapgirl's place for now. Well I'm not getting into the thing, she has already said "I'm pretty emotional now. It will only get worse" I'll take my chances with another bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 psuhoffman always shows up when it is time to declare the storm dead and write the post-mortem report. weren't you the one saying we weren't going to get snow from this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well I'm not getting into the thing, she has already said "I'm pretty emotional now. It will only get worse" I'll take my chances with another bus. But, I may see snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 But, I may see snow I hope so but....think it's still an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well I'm not getting into the thing, she has already said "I'm pretty emotional now. It will only get worse" I'll take my chances with another bus. You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I predict the 00Z GFS will show a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You know where your bread is buttered. I'll be cranking it up soon. I can't wait for our first snow to happen so people can get this pent up frustration out of the way. Its going to be a rough in here with every missed opportunity until we get one after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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