Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok, well I'm going with 0 qpf for all midatlantic for my final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Some of ya are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok, well I'm going with 0 qpf for all midatlantic for my final call At the conclusion of your final call, you should request a ban from an administrator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok, well I'm going with 0 qpf for all midatlantic for my final call I guess you'd better hope no state from VA to NY gets and precip then. Including NJ I bet you wouldn't have had that forecast 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This has been a really good thread up until 30 minutes ago. Let's get back on track with quality discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On the positive, euro still had snow. everything else clearly trended east @ 18z. guess you can run with the fact it was only one suite and hope for the best @ 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Here's the link to the article I did earlier today before running off an golfing poorly. I don't see nay reason to change it. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/model-backs-off-noreaster-snow-potential-for-washington-dc/2012/11/05/0e0f56a6-276c-11e2-9972-71bf64ea091c_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The track itself on the 18z gfs still isn't all that tragic. It would need to be a stronger storm. Not sure if we can kick start the strengthening process any earlier though. We needed the help of the trailing vort but it looks like the timing isn't going to work out. I guess it's time to start watching the finer details as the lead vort comes around the bottom of the trough. Doubt there will be much difference in what the models showed over the next 24hrs vs what happens but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 At least we are seeing coastal storms this year. This one may very well be a miss, especially for my area. But We had nada to track last year so hopefully its a sign of the coming winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Someone is going to get fringed and fringed Bad...again this reminds me of the storm which I think was December 2010 of when Baltimore was expected to get several inches, but the storm pushed slightly east and had a tight precip gradient..the end result was next to nothing for Baltimore and several inches for the eastern shore...We could be looking at a similar situation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Despite people hailing it as the lord of all models it's really not all the time...Every model has biases and failures. It seems that any model biased to show snow in DC is likely to fail... . MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We've all seen this same scenario many, many times. Give it a few more cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Someone is going to get fringed and fringed Bad...again this reminds me of the storm which I think was December 2010 of when Baltimore was expected to get several inches, but the storm pushed slightly east and had a tight precip gradient..the end result was next to nothing for Baltimore and several inches for the eastern shore...We could be looking at a similar situation here. I think there is a limit to how far east the precip can go and still be mostly snow. I don't really see this as a scenario where this thing can scrape the coast and give them 4 inches. Doesn't seem likely. It appears that there is a sweet spot and "best case" where the heaviest precip aligns with "cold enough" air. The 00Z Euro and 12Z to a lesser extent showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We've all seen this same scenario many, many times. Give it a few more cycles. We need a NAM run that shoots the h85 0 near PITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread is ****ing terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread is ****ing terrible Mapgirl for admin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I forgot how much I hate cwg in the winter. One of their idiot bloggers saying its good news that the potential snowstorm will miss the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We've all seen this same scenario many, many times. Give it a few more cycles. I agree with you for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My forecast for sdandy to trend further northeast didn't pan out. However for this one, I am also forecasting it to verify further northeast. It's a noreaster, like 12/26/2010. These things usually don't wrap up as fast as expected. Don't worry Blizz is still getting rain. .Nailed it!! Except for the Blizz getting rain part. 18z GFS gives him his 4-8. If it verifies, score one for the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I forgot how much I hate cwg in the winter. One of their idiot bloggers saying its good news that the potential snowstorm will miss the region Maybe because people's homes and livelihoods are more highly valued than your infantile obsession with frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Maybe because people's homes and livelihoods are more highly valued than your infantile obsession with frozen precipitation. Like snow is going to wreck homes and livelihoods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Like snow is going to wreck homes and livelihoods A more intense storm closer to the coast could very well destroy recovery efforts in New Jersey and New York. There's a world beyond your snowglobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'll never root for a snowstorm to miss...I don't care who it affects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think there is a limit to how far east the precip can go and still be mostly snow. I don't really see this as a scenario where this thing can scrape the coast and give them 4 inches. Doesn't seem likely. It appears that there is a sweet spot and "best case" where the heaviest precip aligns with "cold enough" air. The 00Z Euro and 12Z to a lesser extent showed that. This whole symphony of shortwaves is interesting to see on the models. If I had I guess, I think the 18z gfs is too far east as the ensemble seemed a little sw of the op at hr 60. That energy coming from Canada is factoring in too. We should have an idea on trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just don't see how the two s/w's can catchup to each other in time at this point with that much separation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A more intense storm closer to the coast could very well destroy recovery efforts in New Jersey and New York. There's a world beyond your snowglobe. This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This whole symphony of shortwaves is interesting to see on the models. If I had I guess, I think the 18z gfs is too far east as the ensemble seemed a little sw of the op at hr 60. That energy coming from Canada is factoring in too. We should have an idea on trends tonight. I'm glad you brought this up. It's the part of the puzzle that I dont fully understand when looking at h5 maps. I kinda liked the 12z gfs because it was pulling the backside energy into a closed contour. I was hoping 18z would take it a step further but it went the other way. You think there is still a chance at better timing and interaction? I was writing it off but I'm far from the person to make that type of call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. Bob, I feel the same way you do SNOW. Remember someones fortune is someone else misfortune. The way of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The next set of runs should remove most of or all of the doubt and although anything can happen, it seems the trend is for the storm to be too far east to affect us. But most of the pessimism has come about because of the latest 18z GFS run. Is that off hour run as reliable as the 0z and 12z runs statistically? The powers that be didn't order better sampling of this storm like they did with Sandy, did they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. He was attacking the CWG blogger for writing that maybe it's a good thing that this might miss the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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