MDstorm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Despite people hailing it as the lord of all models it's really not all the time...Every model has biases and failures. It seems that any model biased to show snow in DC is likely to fail... . MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We've all seen this same scenario many, many times. Give it a few more cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Someone is going to get fringed and fringed Bad...again this reminds me of the storm which I think was December 2010 of when Baltimore was expected to get several inches, but the storm pushed slightly east and had a tight precip gradient..the end result was next to nothing for Baltimore and several inches for the eastern shore...We could be looking at a similar situation here. I think there is a limit to how far east the precip can go and still be mostly snow. I don't really see this as a scenario where this thing can scrape the coast and give them 4 inches. Doesn't seem likely. It appears that there is a sweet spot and "best case" where the heaviest precip aligns with "cold enough" air. The 00Z Euro and 12Z to a lesser extent showed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We've all seen this same scenario many, many times. Give it a few more cycles. We need a NAM run that shoots the h85 0 near PITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread is ****ing terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This thread is ****ing terrible Mapgirl for admin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I forgot how much I hate cwg in the winter. One of their idiot bloggers saying its good news that the potential snowstorm will miss the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We've all seen this same scenario many, many times. Give it a few more cycles. I agree with you for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My forecast for sdandy to trend further northeast didn't pan out. However for this one, I am also forecasting it to verify further northeast. It's a noreaster, like 12/26/2010. These things usually don't wrap up as fast as expected. Don't worry Blizz is still getting rain. .Nailed it!! Except for the Blizz getting rain part. 18z GFS gives him his 4-8. If it verifies, score one for the KFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I forgot how much I hate cwg in the winter. One of their idiot bloggers saying its good news that the potential snowstorm will miss the region Maybe because people's homes and livelihoods are more highly valued than your infantile obsession with frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Maybe because people's homes and livelihoods are more highly valued than your infantile obsession with frozen precipitation. Like snow is going to wreck homes and livelihoods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Like snow is going to wreck homes and livelihoods A more intense storm closer to the coast could very well destroy recovery efforts in New Jersey and New York. There's a world beyond your snowglobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'll never root for a snowstorm to miss...I don't care who it affects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think there is a limit to how far east the precip can go and still be mostly snow. I don't really see this as a scenario where this thing can scrape the coast and give them 4 inches. Doesn't seem likely. It appears that there is a sweet spot and "best case" where the heaviest precip aligns with "cold enough" air. The 00Z Euro and 12Z to a lesser extent showed that. This whole symphony of shortwaves is interesting to see on the models. If I had I guess, I think the 18z gfs is too far east as the ensemble seemed a little sw of the op at hr 60. That energy coming from Canada is factoring in too. We should have an idea on trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just don't see how the two s/w's can catchup to each other in time at this point with that much separation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 A more intense storm closer to the coast could very well destroy recovery efforts in New Jersey and New York. There's a world beyond your snowglobe. This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This whole symphony of shortwaves is interesting to see on the models. If I had I guess, I think the 18z gfs is too far east as the ensemble seemed a little sw of the op at hr 60. That energy coming from Canada is factoring in too. We should have an idea on trends tonight. I'm glad you brought this up. It's the part of the puzzle that I dont fully understand when looking at h5 maps. I kinda liked the 12z gfs because it was pulling the backside energy into a closed contour. I was hoping 18z would take it a step further but it went the other way. You think there is still a chance at better timing and interaction? I was writing it off but I'm far from the person to make that type of call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. Bob, I feel the same way you do SNOW. Remember someones fortune is someone else misfortune. The way of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The next set of runs should remove most of or all of the doubt and although anything can happen, it seems the trend is for the storm to be too far east to affect us. But most of the pessimism has come about because of the latest 18z GFS run. Is that off hour run as reliable as the 0z and 12z runs statistically? The powers that be didn't order better sampling of this storm like they did with Sandy, did they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. He was attacking the CWG blogger for writing that maybe it's a good thing that this might miss the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This moral argument was put to bed years ago. Please don't perpetuate it. Any enthusiast that is 100% unwavering for imby snow is totally acceptable. There is zero reason to rationalize the other way. We are rooting for snow period. Nothing else matters at all and no criticism is necessary. Agreed...As we all know, our desires for any particular outcome have zero affect on the outcome. In the end, it is not up to us. Rooting for a particular weather outcome will have zero effect on anyone suffering. Donating to the red cross might help those who are suffering. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 The next set of runs should remove most of or all of the doubt and although anything can happen, it seems the trend is for the storm to be too far east to affect us. But most of the pessimism has come about because of the latest 18z GFS run. Is that off hour run as reliable as the 0z and 12z runs statistically? The powers that be didn't order better sampling of this storm like they did with Sandy, did they? 0z could certainly come back west. After the 12z GFS the "trend" has been undeniably not a great one if you want storminess around here. That word gets thrown around too easily though... could just be a blip. The fact is we're generally not that good at storms where we need all the pieces for it to work. If you're just looking for some rain then you can go without a few I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Have to remember 18z only made the situation more clouded. If it was a consensus of consistency it came to, you would be writing this one off. Light needs to be shed on this situation. Can't lock up any solution type until tomorrow aftn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 He was attacking the CWG blogger for writing that maybe it's a good thing that this might miss the region. Ji is absolutely right. I agree with him. I'm still upset with Wes for not saying that a solid pasting was the most likely scenario. Worst blog post of the young winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I'm glad you brought this up. It's the part of the puzzle that I dont fully understand when looking at h5 maps. I kinda liked the 12z gfs because it was pulling the backside energy into a closed contour. I was hoping 18z would take it a step further but it went the other way. You think there is still a chance at better timing and interaction? I was writing it off but I'm far from the person to make that type of call. That's a tough question. I think for the DC area, you probably want to cheer on a stronger initial s/w. The reason is because it's possible the energy in the Midwest will remain separate enough to prevent phasing and bring the low further west. Now some of this energy is in Canada and it's possible that the energy may dive into the backside trough enough to carve it out further and pull the low further NW...but I think the easier thing to do atmospherically, is to have the initial srn s/w stronger. The energy as progged today is coming around the backside stronger and cutting off more than yesterday. The result is that the backside s/w sort of gives the initial s/w the boot east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Maybe because people's homes and livelihoods are more highly valued than your infantile obsession with frozen precipitation. Far more infantile to think that anyone's thoughts on the matter would any way influence what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 We are all domestic terrorists plotting against the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Far more infantile to think that anyone's thoughts on the matter would any way influence what happens. I was explaining why someone might say "it's good for the region if this storm misses." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well NWS mets job is just as hard but, they are not in the public spot light as much to be criticized as on air personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 That's a tough question. I think for the DC area, you probably want to cheer on a stronger initial s/w. The reason is because it's possible the energy in the Midwest will remain separate enough to prevent phasing and bring the low further west. Now some of this energy is in Canada and it's possible that the energy may dive into the backside trough enough to carve it out further and pull the low further NW...but I think the easier thing to do atmospherically, is to have the initial srn s/w stronger. The energy as progged today is coming around the backside stronger and cutting off more than yesterday. The result is that the backside s/w sort of gives the initial s/w the boot east. Makes complete sense. Thank you. We're awful close to the point of no return so I hope something goes our way with 0z guidance. I'll go ahead and jump on the stronger lead shortwave bandwagon right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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