Wonderdog Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Didn't the EURO have Sandy a week before landfall coming north up the coast and then made its left into the mid-atlantic but a couple of days before landfall showed an easterly jog (mimicking the GFS) before making the hard left? And then did it not eventually settle on the actual track it had shown a week earlier or close to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 word on the street is the SREFs favor a west track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Didn't the EURO have Sandy a week before landfall coming north up the coast and then made its left into the mid-atlantic but a couple of days before landfall showed an easterly jog (mimicking the GFS) before making the hard left? And then did it not eventually settle on the actual track it had shown a week earlier or close to it? it did come in further South than it's final solution but not by much...I've often thought that many times a final track shows itself on an earlier run than one closer to the day...but that's just anecdotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREF pretty cold, .5 for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HPC's probablistic maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 looks like 18Z RGEM is going to come in a bit east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 of course on the 48hr. 18Z RGEM, there is quite a block to the north so I wonder if it drifts west a bit just saying http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 we have had 2 chances for snow this winter so far and were 0-2. Looks like were on our way to another banner year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 the gfs looks ugly.. good thing it's a worthless 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 we have had 2 chances for snow this winter so far and were 0-2. Looks like were on our way to another banner year Except that it's not met winter OR astro winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Eek. GFS went further east than 12z. Consensus going the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not even a sprinkle around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 the gfs looks ugly.. good thing it's a worthless 18z run. It is over in spain somewhere I think by hour 51. lol jk. But, wow I never seen so much model crappiness. Jan 25th, 2000 ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 we have had 2 chances for snow this winter so far and were 0-2. Looks like were on our way to another banner year how many of the 4500 posts would you say are like this.....3/4 or 7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Zippo on the 18z GFS...FWIW, Its gonna be a long winter with these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a casual 100 mile shift inside of 50 hours, nothing to see here folks, move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not even a sprinkle around here. It's over. Close the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's over. Close the thread We suck at phasing and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that Reanalysis is already complete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that Despite people hailing it as the lord of all models it's really not all the time...Every model has biases and failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We suck at phasing and climo. The bus just blew all its tires, flipped over, burst into flames. I am canceling my ticket to ride, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Lets wait till verification guys. I personally think the eastern track may be it, but lets wait till verification before declaring a winner ... especially after 1 model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Despite people hailing it as the lord of all models it's really not all the time...Every model has biases and failures. It hasn't actually failed yet, but yeah, right now it's looking like a solid butt whipping is a possibility. I guess everything needed to be west about 150 miles? All of the features, even whats going on right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Haha...GFS schooled king EURO... 6-9, 4-8 whatever the talk was to 0-0...what a f*****g joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Compare 18z GFS yesterday vs today, You can see the trend that has been going on. Less phasing and a weaker lead s/w. Here is 00z vs 18z today. Just goes to show you the complications with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Haha...GFS schooled king EURO... 6-9, 4-8 whatever the talk was to 0-0...what a f*****g joke. Glad the storm already happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Model performance posts annoy the crap out of me and ones before the event even happens are nails on a chalkboard. Any enthusiast that has followed models should know that they are all good and bad. Each setup poses it's own unique set of calculations. Euro does quite well when there is a big block. The block is modest at best right now and that one piece of information alone should be a clear indication that this storm is tough as heck to "nail". I don't care how good a model is. GFS seems to have done well with this one so far. We'll revisit this topic on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What storm kmlwx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What storm kmlwx? You are acting like the storm happened already...which is really not bright at this stage. Sure it looks like it will be a miss for us - but as many have already said...it is not smart to declare a model winner. The GFS did not "school" the Euro as of this writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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