Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Eek. GFS went further east than 12z. Consensus going the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not even a sprinkle around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 the gfs looks ugly.. good thing it's a worthless 18z run. It is over in spain somewhere I think by hour 51. lol jk. But, wow I never seen so much model crappiness. Jan 25th, 2000 ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 we have had 2 chances for snow this winter so far and were 0-2. Looks like were on our way to another banner year how many of the 4500 posts would you say are like this.....3/4 or 7/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Zippo on the 18z GFS...FWIW, Its gonna be a long winter with these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a casual 100 mile shift inside of 50 hours, nothing to see here folks, move along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not even a sprinkle around here. It's over. Close the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's over. Close the thread We suck at phasing and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that Reanalysis is already complete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its hard to believe the Euro got whipped like that Despite people hailing it as the lord of all models it's really not all the time...Every model has biases and failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We suck at phasing and climo. The bus just blew all its tires, flipped over, burst into flames. I am canceling my ticket to ride, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Lets wait till verification guys. I personally think the eastern track may be it, but lets wait till verification before declaring a winner ... especially after 1 model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Despite people hailing it as the lord of all models it's really not all the time...Every model has biases and failures. It hasn't actually failed yet, but yeah, right now it's looking like a solid butt whipping is a possibility. I guess everything needed to be west about 150 miles? All of the features, even whats going on right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Haha...GFS schooled king EURO... 6-9, 4-8 whatever the talk was to 0-0...what a f*****g joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Compare 18z GFS yesterday vs today, You can see the trend that has been going on. Less phasing and a weaker lead s/w. Here is 00z vs 18z today. Just goes to show you the complications with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Haha...GFS schooled king EURO... 6-9, 4-8 whatever the talk was to 0-0...what a f*****g joke. Glad the storm already happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Model performance posts annoy the crap out of me and ones before the event even happens are nails on a chalkboard. Any enthusiast that has followed models should know that they are all good and bad. Each setup poses it's own unique set of calculations. Euro does quite well when there is a big block. The block is modest at best right now and that one piece of information alone should be a clear indication that this storm is tough as heck to "nail". I don't care how good a model is. GFS seems to have done well with this one so far. We'll revisit this topic on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What storm kmlwx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What storm kmlwx? You are acting like the storm happened already...which is really not bright at this stage. Sure it looks like it will be a miss for us - but as many have already said...it is not smart to declare a model winner. The GFS did not "school" the Euro as of this writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok, well I'm going with 0 qpf for all midatlantic for my final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Some of ya are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok, well I'm going with 0 qpf for all midatlantic for my final call At the conclusion of your final call, you should request a ban from an administrator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok, well I'm going with 0 qpf for all midatlantic for my final call I guess you'd better hope no state from VA to NY gets and precip then. Including NJ I bet you wouldn't have had that forecast 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This has been a really good thread up until 30 minutes ago. Let's get back on track with quality discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On the positive, euro still had snow. everything else clearly trended east @ 18z. guess you can run with the fact it was only one suite and hope for the best @ 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Here's the link to the article I did earlier today before running off an golfing poorly. I don't see nay reason to change it. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/model-backs-off-noreaster-snow-potential-for-washington-dc/2012/11/05/0e0f56a6-276c-11e2-9972-71bf64ea091c_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The track itself on the 18z gfs still isn't all that tragic. It would need to be a stronger storm. Not sure if we can kick start the strengthening process any earlier though. We needed the help of the trailing vort but it looks like the timing isn't going to work out. I guess it's time to start watching the finer details as the lead vort comes around the bottom of the trough. Doubt there will be much difference in what the models showed over the next 24hrs vs what happens but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 At least we are seeing coastal storms this year. This one may very well be a miss, especially for my area. But We had nada to track last year so hopefully its a sign of the coming winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Someone is going to get fringed and fringed Bad...again this reminds me of the storm which I think was December 2010 of when Baltimore was expected to get several inches, but the storm pushed slightly east and had a tight precip gradient..the end result was next to nothing for Baltimore and several inches for the eastern shore...We could be looking at a similar situation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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