MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its going to be funny in here if the NAM shows 8 inches for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Except no one said that. it was kinda an inside joke....when you are going through your synoptic met classes...it's an exercise employed by a good number of professors....teaches you some humility.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 it was kinda an inside joke....when you are going through your synoptic met classes...it's an exercise employed by a good number of professors....teaches you some humility.... Models are awesome. That was not really my point earlier. There have been some people over the years that pretend looking at water vapor loops will give you more insight which is ridiculous. But I think more and more people are unwilling to think outside the model box. A week out from Sandy most people said it wouldn't impact this area because more models than not showed it missing. Obviously that was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models are awesome. That was not really my point earlier. There have been some people over the years that pretend looking at water vapor loops will give you more insight which is ridiculous. But I think more and more people are unwilling to think outside the model box. A week out from Sandy most people said it wouldn't impact this area because more models than not showed it missing. Obviously that was wrong. Something I was taught way back was to start with analyses of the upper levels and the surface as well as satellite. Top down. Absorb that - internalize the features. Only then should you run the clock forward with the models so what you see can be interpreted in the proper context. The advice is some 15 years old, but it still has merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models are awesome. That was not really my point earlier. There have been some people over the years that pretend looking at water vapor loops will give you more insight which is ridiculous. But I think more and more people are unwilling to think outside the model box. A week out from Sandy most people said it wouldn't impact this area because more models than not showed it missing. Obviously that was wrong. oh couldn't agree more...models have made some forecasters lazy...instead of using them as a tool or a mechanism to learn...some use them to do their job...anyways my comment wasn't a slight towards anyone...it's a terrible difficult exercise to forecast without model guidance...but it's kinda fun, just don't take the failure personal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro ens mean looks a lot like the op with track .. precip is a bit more expansive to the west. Gives DC more snow on snow map than op but places northeast less. Max parallels 95 from DC to NYC area 3-4". Again, just reporting what map shows not saying that's how much snow would actually fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 A good forecaster can act as a super ensemble by meshing them all together and factoring in any known or perceived biases. That's pretty much all the value we humans can add these days. I guess I'm not sure why this last run of the euro is so much more valid than the last four.. Other than a seeming growing consensus. I also don't think the public gets all this waffling done run to run or that last week everyone was throwing the gfs under the bus and now saying the Euro trended to it. It's more complicated than that but in a sense forecasters make it look like they move at the whim of guidance 1) The last runs of the Euro looked like not just one, but actually several, examples of previous Euro disasters that have also notably taken place during the transitional months of March to early April or late Oct through Nov. 2) Other notable Euro failures in the sub 96-hour timeframe have also been seen immediately preceding a negative to positive NAO switch. 3) The ridge axis/location in the west is A. sub optimal and B. vaguely reminiscent of the H500 setup preceding at least one of those VA Capes Euro nightmares. I do agree, however, that there's a tendency to look at a single model run's flip or flop and effective declare that "the Euro just caved" or some such nonsense. Sadly people then tend to look back and only remember that one run, even if the model then reverts back towards its prior solution scheme and ends up being more right with its "original idea". That definitely does get annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Something I was taught way back was to start with analyses of the upper levels and the surface as well as satellite. Top down. Absorb that - internalize the features. Only then should you run the clock forward with the models so what you see can be interpreted in the proper context. The advice is some 15 years old, but it still has merit. in undergrad/grad school...each day was spent printing off a surface map/upper level analyses in the morning...and doing my own contour analyses....taught me way more than any synoptic class...simple analyses such as these aren't practiced as much by forecasters as they should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't think you can view the op Euro shift insignificant. The Euro was really on its own for a while wrt snow in DC even while consistent run after run. Then it takes a pretty substantial shift east joining the other models. While you definitely need another cycle or 2 to solidly toss out a big DC hit, there's no operational model which indicates more than about 1/3" QPF in DC. That's not going to get it done w/ the BL temps if you want an unusual early season snow. The DC snow scenario was a long shot before the 12z Euro. The 12z Euro wasn't exactly a dagger, but it was a wounding stab wrt snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't think you can view the op Euro shift insignificant. The Euro was really on its own for a while wrt snow in DC even while consistent run after run. Then it takes a pretty substantial shift east joining the other models. While you definitely need another cycle or 2 to solidly toss out a big DC hit, there's no operational model which indicates more than about 1/3" QPF in DC. That's not going to get it done w/ the BL temps if you want an unusual early season snow. The DC snow scenario was a long shot before the 12z Euro. The 12z Euro wasn't exactly a dagger, but it was a wounding stab wrt snow prospects. its a dagger. game over. When euro is an outlier and then it caves to the other model, it usually does not go back to its weenier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro ens mean looks a lot like the op with track .. precip is a bit more expansive to the west. Gives DC more snow on snow map than op but places northeast less. Max parallels 95 from DC to NYC area 3-4". Again, just reporting what map shows not saying that's how much snow would actually fall. Maybe someone with access to the individual members can comment on this particular situation, but if the ensemble mean track is very similar/identical to the Op, I'd probably take the Op's precip output. Unless the ensemble members are all like the Op, the shift west in the ensemble mean precip is probably due to a few west-tracking members getting averaged into the ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's pretty much all the value we humans can add these days. 1) The last runs of the Euro looked like not just one, but actually several, examples of previous Euro disasters that have also notably taken place during the transitional months of March to early April or late Oct through Nov. 2) Other notable Euro failures in the sub 96-hour timeframe have also been seen immediately preceding a negative to positive NAO switch. 3) The ridge axis/location in the west is A. sub optimal and B. vaguely reminiscent of the H500 setup preceding at least one of those VA Capes Euro nightmares. I do agree, however, that there's a tendency to look at a single model run's flip or flop and effective declare that "the Euro just caved" or some such nonsense. Sadly people then tend to look back and only remember that one run, even if the model then reverts back towards its prior solution scheme and ends up being more right with its "original idea". That definitely does get annoying. Very good insights. Wes was worried the Euro was playing into a frequent bias of being too phased too early. In the 12z run, it was no longer that - not insignificant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very good insights. Wes was worried the Euro was playing into a frequent bias of being too phased too early. In the 12z run, it was no longer that - not insignificant. Of course now the GFS went wrapped up...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very good insights. Wes was worried the Euro was playing into a frequent bias of being too phased too early. In the 12z run, it was no longer that - not insignificant. We've seen that a number of times over recent winters so certainly a concern. I wanted two more runs after yesterday and only got one, so, meh. On to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its going to be funny in here if the NAM shows 8 inches for DC Unfortunately the NAM is a whiff for the MA....got to think the Euro is not done with shifting a little east. Can the NAM be this bad inside 48 hours, it's got be somewhat close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Unfortunately the NAM is a whiff for the MA....got to think the Euro is not done with shifting a little east. Can the NAM be this bad inside 48 hours, it's got be somewhat close. More than a whiff - not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wow.... NAM doesn't even sprinkle on Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Unfortunately the NAM is a whiff for the MA....got to think the Euro is not done with shifting a little east. Can the NAM be this bad inside 48 hours, it's got be somewhat close. The answer is ya it can be this bad. I don't think it came around the the DEC 2009 blizzard till like 30 or 36hrs out. Or was that the GFS, one of the models was terrible with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can the NAM be this bad inside 48 hours Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wow.... NAM doesn't even sprinkle on Cape Cod I am glad I am not a TV met on this one. The storm sucks to try and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It actually swings out to Bermuda and then hooks back to pummel NYC..... Son of Sandy lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I am glad I am not a TV met on this one. The storm sucks to try and forecast. Just TV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It actually swings out to Bermuda and then hooks back to pummel NYC..... Son of Sandy lives You sure you know where Bermuda is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just TV? We know your job is easy Scott . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HWW for far NE MD and surrounds URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 320 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO AFFECT OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... .AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST TUESDAY. THIS STORM WILL THEN INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY, BECOMING A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER OFF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM WILL THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THURSDAY. AN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM AND AFFECT THE REGION. THOSE AREAS THAT WERE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY SANDY LAST WEEK WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HIGH WINDS. DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008>010-012>027-PAZ067>071- 061000- /O.NEW.KPHI.HW.A.0002.121107T1100Z-121108T1200Z/ NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD- QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE- PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN... REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON... DENTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK... FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO... CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON... MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY... ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST... WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 320 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH. SOME WIND GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 65 MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. * THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS THAT WERE HARDEST HIT BY LAST WEEKS STORM. * TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ABOUT NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST. * IMPACTS...STRUCTURES AND TREES WEAKENED BY LAST WEEKS STORM MAY BE FURTHER DAMAGED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WINDS. THIS CAN ALSO RESULT IN RENEWED POWER OUTAGES, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE THE ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE. DEBRIS FROM LAST WEEKS STORM COULD BECOME A HAZARD DURING THIS NEW STORM, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO BECOME AIRBORNE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH, OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. IF POSSIBLE, NOW IS THE TIME TO BRING IN OR SECURE OUTDOOR ITEMS THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE STRONG WINDS. && $$ GORSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We know your job is easy Scott . This sucks. Nobody is ready for deicing procedures and airlines are hurt from last weekend. I kept a mention of possible snow in the MA airports, but mentioned them possibly only being fringed and as I discussed with Randy earlier. It's tomorrow that is D-Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You sure you know where Bermuda is? I was being sarcastic and trying to underscore how far out it swings before coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You sure you know where Bermuda is? Can some of the banter be moved? There may be some people viewing the thread who don't know the difference between really stupid sarcastic posts and legit posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just TV? Well NWS mets job is just as hard but, they are not in the public spot light as much to be criticized as on air personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well NWS mets job is just as hard but, they are not in the public spot light as much to be criticized as on air personalities. I'm not in the NWS, but It was just a joke. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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