Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And this will probably come down to a nowcast deal too for the region. I do think this run sort of stunk for DC, but 00z tonight could come west again. Yeah it did, except for yanking the elevation argument away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Full circle...made this post last week after a euro run gave the region snow but fringed mine and Ji's house...give it another week and it will come back I havent been excited about this storm for one big reason. I am going leaving for Orlando at 2:00pm Wednesday and it was killing me that the euro was showing this solution.i sorta feel better now. It would of literally ruined my year to miss this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just wait till the gfs comes west. Oy History says it will at least one time look like the big snow euro runs...we have all been on here long enough to know that...hopefully some of the weaker souls out there can handle that swing. I still see flakes in the air which is neat at this time of the year...I for one have no clue and will never pretend to know what the final outcome will be...still fun to track something then to not to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah it did, except for yanking the elevation argument away. I think it was you...or perhaps someone else on here. If push comes to shove, I'd rather be in a death band, then at 1000ft and have 20DBZ echoes. Death band > elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just wait till the gfs comes west. Oy 18z NAM blizzard ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Lil too close there for comfort... Or completely out of the game for some of us. I still like having some elevation on my side if any moisture can make it out here. But that is starting to look unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think it was you...or perhaps someone else on here. If push comes to shove, I'd rather be in a death band, then at 1000ft and have 20DBZ echoes. Death band > elevation. Yeah elevation is helpful but only if you get precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Funny thing is, now that the Euro has wobbled right, the GFS ens members are the wettest they've been (again, I'm looking at my area). I guess there's time for development/change. Gonna be a long winter like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Funny thing is, now that the Euro has wobbled right, the GFS ens members are the wettest they've been (again, I'm looking at my area). I guess there's time for development/change. Gonna be a long winter like this. Just say no to model hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I guess location dictates opinion, but it's a pretty big shift. If it becomes reality, it's pretty hard to say that the Euro was "spot on" for this one. Granted, I've only focused on my area, but the GFS has had me fringed the whole time with this whereas the Euro had me bullseyed to begin with, even had a really good snow as recently as its last run, and now I'm in no precip at all, again much closer to what the GFS has shown the whole time. Anyway, we'll see what happens. I-81 winter FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I know we hate to hear this because we love to track and diagnose every piece of data that comes out, but this is the kind of situation where small details in the dynamics and evolution of the system will have a drastic impact on the actual track. The block is breaking down so there is much more "room" for this to track then with Sandy. This is also not an WAA driving event where picking out the thermal boundary will help lock in the storm track. This system is going to bomb out and small differences with exactly how soon that process begins as well as the evolution of that process and amount of convection involved will make big differences in the final location of the meso scale banding on the western side. We all know how these types of systems tend to continue to "change" on the models right up until nowcast time. I think this is a wait and see system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Funny thing is, now that the Euro has wobbled right, the GFS ens members are the wettest they've been (again, I'm looking at my area). I guess there's time for development/change. Gonna be a long winter like this. Headline...euro ensembles West of op....book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah elevation is helpful but only if you get precip I expect some classic model hugging for something that will come down to Nowcasting. It's all about that band placement. Hopefully Randy keeps his weather boner in check lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty much everyone just modelcasts these days. Well, until humans can can hold billions of bits of initial state information in their working short term memory, and then perform trillions of iterative time-step calculations via some relatively complicated differential equations while also, mentally, handing the some fairly nasty coordinate system translations...that's probably going to be the state of affairs for forecasts further further than 24 hours in the future. From what I recall, the very best human forecaster's average 36-hr error was only slightly better than the average 72-hr error of the earliest medium range models. So...ignoring the models and hoping to beat them at the own game is probably stupid. Now, pointing out that a model appears to be repeating one of its past sins, while also lacking support of its peers and antecedent synoptics...is that "modelcasting" now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just say no to model hugging. I'm with you 100% (for once). I almost wish super weenies didn't have access to models...or only once every 24 hours. The swings are crazy. I'd sit tight and wait for a little bit longer. I think I'm still on your bus with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I expect some classic model hugging for something that will come down to Nowcasting. It's all about that band placement. Hopefully Randy keeps his weather boner in check lol. It's OK - he'll be distracted by his election erection. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm with you 100% (for once). I almost wish super weenies didn't have access to models...or only once every 24 hours. The swings are crazy. I'd sit tight and wait for a little bit longer. I think I'm still on your bus with this. If you're a control freak, love snow, and aren't very knowledgeable about the weather, this hobby will mess with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well, until humans can can hold billions of bits of initial state information in their working short term memory, and then perform trillions of iterative time-step calculations via some relatively complicated differential equations while also, mentally, handing the some fairly nasty coordinate system translations...that's probably going to be the state of affairs for forecasts further further than 24 hours in the future. From what I recall, the very best human forecaster's average 36-hr error was only slightly better than the average 72-hr error of the earliest medium range models. So...ignoring the models and hoping to beat them at the own game is probably stupid. Now, pointing out that a model appears to be repeating one of its past sins, while also lacking support of its peers and antecedent synoptics...is that "modelcasting" now? I'm talking more about swinging with every run. A good forecaster can act as a super ensemble by meshing them all together and factoring in any known or perceived biases. Right now consensus is not terribly exciting for DC specifically but not much has changed either. I guess I'm not sure why this last run of the euro is so much more valid than the last four.. Other than a seeming growing consensus. I also don't think the public gets all this waffling done run to run or that last week everyone was throwing the gfs under the bus and now saying the Euro trended to it. It's more complicated than that but in a sense forecasters make it look like they move at the whim of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well, until humans can can hold billions of bits of initial state information in their working short term memory, and then perform trillions of iterative time-step calculations via some relatively complicated differential equations while also, mentally, handing the some fairly nasty coordinate system translations...that's probably going to be the state of affairs for forecasts further further than 24 hours in the future. From what I recall, the very best human forecaster's average 36-hr error was only slightly better than the average 72-hr error of the earliest medium range models. So...ignoring the models and hoping to beat them at the own game is probably stupid. Now, pointing out that a model appears to be repeating one of its past sins, while also lacking support of its peers and antecedent synoptics...is that "modelcasting" now? couldn't had said it better myself...lolz at the idea of anyone here sitting down with only the 0-hour analysis and making a 48 or 72-hour forecast while beating any of the NWP guidance.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 couldn't had said it better myself...lolz at the idea of anyone here sitting down with only the 0-hour analysis and making a 48 or 72-hour forecast while beating any of the NWP guidance.... Except no one said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Its going to be funny in here if the NAM shows 8 inches for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Except no one said that. it was kinda an inside joke....when you are going through your synoptic met classes...it's an exercise employed by a good number of professors....teaches you some humility.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 it was kinda an inside joke....when you are going through your synoptic met classes...it's an exercise employed by a good number of professors....teaches you some humility.... Models are awesome. That was not really my point earlier. There have been some people over the years that pretend looking at water vapor loops will give you more insight which is ridiculous. But I think more and more people are unwilling to think outside the model box. A week out from Sandy most people said it wouldn't impact this area because more models than not showed it missing. Obviously that was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models are awesome. That was not really my point earlier. There have been some people over the years that pretend looking at water vapor loops will give you more insight which is ridiculous. But I think more and more people are unwilling to think outside the model box. A week out from Sandy most people said it wouldn't impact this area because more models than not showed it missing. Obviously that was wrong. Something I was taught way back was to start with analyses of the upper levels and the surface as well as satellite. Top down. Absorb that - internalize the features. Only then should you run the clock forward with the models so what you see can be interpreted in the proper context. The advice is some 15 years old, but it still has merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Models are awesome. That was not really my point earlier. There have been some people over the years that pretend looking at water vapor loops will give you more insight which is ridiculous. But I think more and more people are unwilling to think outside the model box. A week out from Sandy most people said it wouldn't impact this area because more models than not showed it missing. Obviously that was wrong. oh couldn't agree more...models have made some forecasters lazy...instead of using them as a tool or a mechanism to learn...some use them to do their job...anyways my comment wasn't a slight towards anyone...it's a terrible difficult exercise to forecast without model guidance...but it's kinda fun, just don't take the failure personal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro ens mean looks a lot like the op with track .. precip is a bit more expansive to the west. Gives DC more snow on snow map than op but places northeast less. Max parallels 95 from DC to NYC area 3-4". Again, just reporting what map shows not saying that's how much snow would actually fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 A good forecaster can act as a super ensemble by meshing them all together and factoring in any known or perceived biases. That's pretty much all the value we humans can add these days. I guess I'm not sure why this last run of the euro is so much more valid than the last four.. Other than a seeming growing consensus. I also don't think the public gets all this waffling done run to run or that last week everyone was throwing the gfs under the bus and now saying the Euro trended to it. It's more complicated than that but in a sense forecasters make it look like they move at the whim of guidance 1) The last runs of the Euro looked like not just one, but actually several, examples of previous Euro disasters that have also notably taken place during the transitional months of March to early April or late Oct through Nov. 2) Other notable Euro failures in the sub 96-hour timeframe have also been seen immediately preceding a negative to positive NAO switch. 3) The ridge axis/location in the west is A. sub optimal and B. vaguely reminiscent of the H500 setup preceding at least one of those VA Capes Euro nightmares. I do agree, however, that there's a tendency to look at a single model run's flip or flop and effective declare that "the Euro just caved" or some such nonsense. Sadly people then tend to look back and only remember that one run, even if the model then reverts back towards its prior solution scheme and ends up being more right with its "original idea". That definitely does get annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Something I was taught way back was to start with analyses of the upper levels and the surface as well as satellite. Top down. Absorb that - internalize the features. Only then should you run the clock forward with the models so what you see can be interpreted in the proper context. The advice is some 15 years old, but it still has merit. in undergrad/grad school...each day was spent printing off a surface map/upper level analyses in the morning...and doing my own contour analyses....taught me way more than any synoptic class...simple analyses such as these aren't practiced as much by forecasters as they should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't think you can view the op Euro shift insignificant. The Euro was really on its own for a while wrt snow in DC even while consistent run after run. Then it takes a pretty substantial shift east joining the other models. While you definitely need another cycle or 2 to solidly toss out a big DC hit, there's no operational model which indicates more than about 1/3" QPF in DC. That's not going to get it done w/ the BL temps if you want an unusual early season snow. The DC snow scenario was a long shot before the 12z Euro. The 12z Euro wasn't exactly a dagger, but it was a wounding stab wrt snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't think you can view the op Euro shift insignificant. The Euro was really on its own for a while wrt snow in DC even while consistent run after run. Then it takes a pretty substantial shift east joining the other models. While you definitely need another cycle or 2 to solidly toss out a big DC hit, there's no operational model which indicates more than about 1/3" QPF in DC. That's not going to get it done w/ the BL temps if you want an unusual early season snow. The DC snow scenario was a long shot before the 12z Euro. The 12z Euro wasn't exactly a dagger, but it was a wounding stab wrt snow prospects. its a dagger. game over. When euro is an outlier and then it caves to the other model, it usually does not go back to its weenier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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