aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 8-12 n md east of the bay, se pa, w nj n de Sounds like it is a colder run so far....i will be in Princeton on Wednesday and Plymouth meeting pa on Wednesday night/Thursday....I'm liking this run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How far SW? Culpepper? No, like manassas. HGR to BR to manassas or so is 1" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What kind of QPF for the rest of VA along I-95? Dunno still on phone only have a snow map url Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The lift on the euro in the DC area is cut back, so I'd be careful throwing out amounts. This isn't a 0.8" QPF = 8" of snow at all. This is part of the nuances we described earlier of things shifting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 No, like manassas. HGR to BR to manassas or so is 1" line Lil too close there for comfort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The lift on the euro in the DC area is cut back, so I'd be careful throwing out amounts. This isn't a 0.8" QPF = 8" of snow at all. This is part of the nuances we described earlier of things shifting around. I'm just typing what the map shows. I doubt this is a final solution even if euro and gfs are closer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Easy to see the western fringe here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Keep yourself in check. I can't believe were even talking a snowstorm. Glad to even see somewhere closed modeled to get 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm just typing what the map shows. I doubt this is a final solution even if euro and gfs are closer now. It probably will adjust some more one way or another. There is also that backside s/w trying to influence things too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm feeling greedy....I'll be happy with an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good runs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good runs here. Agreed, the GFS will come west a bit more, this EURO run looks like somewhere they may converge, yet to be seen. For our parts, good runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Good runs here. For who? DC/Balt? Everyone E of the Blue Ridge? I have to ask because some seem to think this is a DC/Balt Metro thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For who? DC/Balt? Everyone E of the Blue Ridge? I have to ask because some seem to think this is a DC/Balt Metro thread. DCA north and east pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 if the heavy stuff lifts out to the NE on future runs, say "hello" to another NINA-style winter I'm not saying that's going to happen nor am I seriously fearing it at this point since I think Sandy proves that may not be the case just something to keep an eye on at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like the Euro is coming to its senses For those that don't have Accuwx, here are some QPF numbers: HGR: .08" JYO: .16" IAD: .20" DCA: .35" BWI: .57" PHL: 1.06" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty much everyone just modelcasts these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like the Euro is coming to its senses For those that don't have Accuwx, here are some QPF numbers: HGR: .08" JYO: .16" IAD: .20" DCA: .35" BWI: .57" PHL: 1.06" Eww.... and with terrible ratios, thats not good for DC, congrats Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty much everyone just modelcasts these days. Which is horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro shifted east and weaker but it wasn't a huge move or anything. Here's msl hr51 12z and hr63 0z. We'll see where the trends keep going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro shifted east and weaker but it wasn't a huge move or anything. Here's msl hr51 12z and hr63 0z. We'll see where the trends keep going. I know Bob, people are going to overreact, and go solely via the models and thats their choice, but overall I think Baltimore up 83 look to be the spot for this one, and BWI to PHL will likely catch the deform band. The euro wasn't that much of a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Again, you will need to be in that band, so a 30 or 40 mile shift is huge. This is why the forecast is so difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Which is horrible. I don't see too much change in the 12z suite overall. The Euro bumped east in previous runs then came back west. This solution might be closer than previous but I wouldn't bet on it. No need for folks to have emotional swings every few hours. Safest bet is probably to assume you'll (global) get screwed if you want to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 its a horrible run. The euro folded like the redskins. Without heavy precip, there will be no accumulation...not even a dusting most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just go with the chance that you will likely see some flakes and anything else or more is just extra... you will do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Weatherunderground maps show Ji's house fringed...no snow for him...lol Full circle...made this post last week after a euro run gave the region snow but fringed mine and Ji's house...give it another week and it will come back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Full circle...made this post last week after a euro run gave the region snow but fringed mine and Ji's house...give it another week and it will come back Just wait till the gfs comes west. Oy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I guess location dictates opinion, but it's a pretty big shift. If it becomes reality, it's pretty hard to say that the Euro was "spot on" for this one. Granted, I've only focused on my area, but the GFS has had me fringed the whole time with this whereas the Euro had me bullseyed to begin with, even had a really good snow as recently as its last run, and now I'm in no precip at all, again much closer to what the GFS has shown the whole time. Anyway, we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I know it's a weenie statement but the atlantic off the se coast is still plenty warm. We need to pray for rapid strengthening so the deform band can set up. Euro came in weaker so obviously precip got a haircut. The storm could take the same more easterly track but be deeper and still give us a good chance. Many runs to go so we'll see. If I had to hedge I would go with a stronger vs a weaker system than what is currently being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't see too much change in the 12z suite overall. The Euro bumped east in previous runs then came back west. This solution might be closer than previous but I wouldn't bet on it. No need for folks to have emotional swings every few hours. Safest bet is probably to assume you'll (global) get screwed if you want to do that. And this will probably come down to a nowcast deal too for the region. I do think this run sort of stunk for DC, but 00z tonight could come west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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