am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For instance, that s/w that initiates cyclogenesis...if that decides to become very convective, it may act to keep a tighter area of precip and not spread it so far west. I mean, the convective element has to be the reason the models are so far off with this. When/where you get the DMC feedback on the upper low will depend when/where the def band sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HGR is looking pretty good now, eh? Seems possible Hagerstown could get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Seems possible Hagerstown could get fringed. Are we going to see snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Are we going to see snow? We both do have a shot, and next time, keep the IMBY questions in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 and the Crazy Uncle went out to sea to hunt for the HMS Bounty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 if the 18Z run of the RGEM holds to an extrapolated 12Z run, we should be looking pretty darn good considering this panel is the 48hr from the 12Z run and the best UVVs are just entering the area UVVs link http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/775_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 and the Crazy Uncle went out to sea to hunt for the HMS Bounty Ya it was way out there last night too. Someones model verification score will be taking a big hit this week, which model remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd say a minimum of 12.5mm of precip (.5") for DC and Baltimore on the GGEM. Less west and more east. 850s are also below zero when the precip falls. Surface temp 1-2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro can't possibly run soon enough. If it make a move towards the GFS then a lot of questions will be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 4KM NAM is not bad at all. Just getting going at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd say a minimum of 12.5mm of precip (.5") for DC and Baltimore on the GGEM. Less west and more east. 850s are also below zero when the precip falls. Surface temp 1-2C. My map looked more like around .7 for DC, of course its pretty smoothed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 RGEM/EURO/JMA so solid hits for you. We shall see. EURO missed everything west and SOUTH of LYH--He's in Roanoke. Office- Roanoke, House- LYnchburg= Huff We'd need it to wind up fast taking negative tilt SOUTH of HAT almost to reach back to the ROA and NRV Valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We both do have a shot, and next time, keep the IMBY questions in the banter thread That was more of a troll towards his "we are not going to see snow" negative nancy posts from 24 hours ago. Sorry for the OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I mean, the convective element has to be the reason the models are so far off with this. When/where you get the DMC feedback on the upper low will depend when/where the def band sets up Yeah for sure. This thing will be a diabatic heat machine, and that will cause some issues. And to add to that, the second impulse diving SE into VA and NC will try to join forces and also play around with the mid level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We both do have a shot, and next time, keep the IMBY questions in the banter thread You are not an admin here. Don't start this again this year. Please. Back on topic, is this a situation similar to Sandy where our precip moves in an east west fashion as the storm strengthens/moves up the coast or even slightly westward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You are not an admin here. Don't start this again this year. Please. Back on topic, is this a situation similar to Sandy where our precip moves in an east west fashion as the storm strengthens/moves up the coast or even slightly westward? This should be a pretty classic look. Solid shield moving from GA-NC-VA and hopefully starting a nice spin over dc metro. Quite different than sandy. Much more "normal". Edit: assuming that it gets it's act together in some reasonable fashion like the euro shows. Looking at the vort on water vapor right now definitely looks like it's going to juice up as it rounds the bottom but gfs could be more right. I just hope it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You are not an admin here. Don't start this again this year. Please. Back on topic, is this a situation similar to Sandy where our precip moves in an east west fashion as the storm strengthens/moves up the coast or even slightly westward? Depends where storm is-- some places would come from south, but as the low depends and takes a more negative tilt it doesn backbuild to the NW and even form over head. The ECMWF precip map showed this nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This should be a pretty classic look. Solid shield moving from GA-NC-VA and hopefully starting a nice spin over dc metro. Quite different than sandy. Much more "normal". All except temps which is what everyone is pinning hope on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 All except temps which is what everyone is pinning hope on Agree... is there a "zone" we should be looking for here? Like 33 to 36? Or still too early to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 All except temps which is what everyone is pinning hope on Absolutely. I was specifically posting about the precip shield. If this was happening in Mid Oct is would be a classic fall rainstorm. Heck, even in Nov 99% of the time it's a rainstorm setup. The gods are at least grinning on us right now. Just hope it isn't a sadistic grin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Agree... is there a "zone" we should be looking for here? Like 33 to 36? Or still too early to say? The lower the better but anything above 34 is hard to accumulate in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Another thing about the 12z gfs is that it is coming around to a slower moving system. Euro was interesting. In 48 hours it moved from off the GA coast and was still south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The lower the better but anything above 34 is hard to accumulate in my experience. Depends on rates.... once you're able to get a base coating down its all gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hopefully the EURO doesn't throw a curveball here... stayintg the course would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Another thing about the 12z gfs is that it is coming around to a slower moving system. Euro was interesting. In 48 hours it moved from off the GA coast and was still south of LI. If that happens then i wonder what would more likely happen, better chance of snow due to wrapping in of colder air or does the storm yank in too much warm marine air at the mid levels to keep it rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can't tell yet but euro looks good @ 500 on the 24hr map. Closed contour centered near the GA / TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hopefully the EURO doesn't throw a curveball here... stayintg the course would be great Wish not granted. It is well east. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If that happens then i wonder what would more likely happen, better chance of snow due to wrapping in of colder air or does the storm yank in too much warm marine air at the mid levels to keep it rain? We just need the system to intensify at the right time. 850's are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wish not granted. It is well east. lol. Ouch. Just saw the 48hr panel. Damn Sam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro is a little weaker with initial s/w and stronger with the backside s/w. End result is east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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