WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just did side by side h5's @ hr 45 & 51 and compared with hr 51/57 with 6z. It's a huge step. I think I'm caving on this one. I've tried to fight the urge because it's so damn time consuming picking apart every run but the GFS just pushed me over the edge. Bob, thanks for posting those. Pretty big differences to my unknowing eyes. I may be starting to fade myself. I've never bought this one. I'd sure like to see it happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ion! Check your email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 idk- I think the gfs is a big step towards the euro. I have no idea if it will go as extreme as the euro but it sure moved towards it. Best bet is still the blend of the euro-gfs. "Euro/GFS blend" seems to be the fall-back option for pretty much everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ion! Check your email I'm in a mtg.. Can't do much right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If anything 0z was onto closing h5 before the 6z went the other way. If you compare 0z to 12z it's a more natural progression towards the desired solution. The GFS really wants to wrap this thing up earlier than yesterday's runs. That's the most significant takeaway for me. The euro has just been steady freddie at closing up h5 perfectly to our south and putting us into the hot and heavy deform stuff. A good analogy of what we want to happen is the cyclone hitting it's adolescent growth spurt over our heads before it becomes mature and flabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Always nice to see you pop in and say things like this. What time frame are you thinking for the 6-10hr period? Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uh oh! We need a Weenie Weather Maps thread! I can see them starting soon! Here is JB's forecast! http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/265492463106535424/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=265492463106535424 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. This will be a strong storm everywhere. Certainly DC burbs into ERN PA are under the gun for a 6-10hr pasting. Don't do this to me. Remember that time I bailed you out of that foxhole in 'Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Excellent. Thank you. Yea, I totally understand about location. Unfortunately for me, my house is usually frustrating close but 20 miles to my NW is cashing in. I wouldn't expect this to be any different if it does snow. I'll get lucky with an inch or 2 as it pulls away. But heck, 2" is damn close to my seasonal total last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Sorry but i just wanted to highlight the important parts before everyone says all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HGR is looking pretty good now, eh? Of course it is, now that I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Leesburg don't let me down. Snow in Western 'burbs. Is there a banter thread for this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Don't do this to me. Remember that time I bailed you out of that foxhole in 'Nam? Well don't confuse "potential" with "locked" lol. It's still quite possible the DC area is on the wrn precip fringe. This is not an easy task to figure out. Trying to narrow down a band that might have a 30-50 mile wide swath of snow that depends on dynamics in a marginal atmosphere is difficult at best. It would be wise to keep expectations in check for now, but it certainly is on the table. If the euro hangs tough, then I would feel better, but I'm unsure how far west the precip makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sorry but i just wanted to highlight the important parts before everyone says all snow. So you think. This is all anyone read: Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GGEM follows up RGEM with big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For instance, that s/w that initiates cyclogenesis...if that decides to become very convective, it may act to keep a tighter area of precip and not spread it so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GGEM a bit SW of its 0z position by 0z on Thurday. Maybe 25-50mi? Tight precip gradient over DC/Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 So you think. This is all anyone read: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm in a mtg.. Can't do much right now ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I wouldn't even focus heavily on elevation partly since those areas might not get into heavy precip. Obviously elevation helps when available but a euro solution would give just about anyone snow who gets the comma head. Anyone who has lived here a while knows how to be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For instance, that s/w that initiates cyclogenesis...if that decides to become very convective, it may act to keep a tighter area of precip and not spread it so far west. I mean, the convective element has to be the reason the models are so far off with this. When/where you get the DMC feedback on the upper low will depend when/where the def band sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HGR is looking pretty good now, eh? Seems possible Hagerstown could get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Seems possible Hagerstown could get fringed. Are we going to see snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Are we going to see snow? We both do have a shot, and next time, keep the IMBY questions in the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 and the Crazy Uncle went out to sea to hunt for the HMS Bounty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 if the 18Z run of the RGEM holds to an extrapolated 12Z run, we should be looking pretty darn good considering this panel is the 48hr from the 12Z run and the best UVVs are just entering the area UVVs link http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/775_50.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 and the Crazy Uncle went out to sea to hunt for the HMS Bounty Ya it was way out there last night too. Someones model verification score will be taking a big hit this week, which model remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd say a minimum of 12.5mm of precip (.5") for DC and Baltimore on the GGEM. Less west and more east. 850s are also below zero when the precip falls. Surface temp 1-2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro can't possibly run soon enough. If it make a move towards the GFS then a lot of questions will be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 4KM NAM is not bad at all. Just getting going at 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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