EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nah, he had his moment of glory. No sense overwriting the fond memories of mashed potatoes, gridlock, power outages, and my house getting down to 38. Haha. Sounds like a blast. That was one interesting system. As usual we need this to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. This will be a strong storm everywhere. Certainly DC burbs into ERN PA are under the gun for a 6-10hr pasting. Always nice to see you pop in and say things like this. What time frame are you thinking for the 6-10hr period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 no. and we need a banter thread to get the Mr. B contingent out of the grown up analysis thread. Have a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sometimes I think you really like me. Pray for me tomorrow night and hope I'm not on the news. A Romney win then a cold rain for DC. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for these side-by-sides, Bob. Very helpful. I hate clicking back and forth between browser windows/tabs. I agree it's a fairly big step. I admit to not paying very close attention to this storm yet (November snowfall suspicion bias), but hasn't the GFS been bouncing around a bit for the last few days between OTS and something close enough for precip in our area? Either way, a change at this stage in the game, ~72 hours out when the vort is being well-sampled, should be given more weight then one 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. Hey hey hey, I'm only interpreting model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just did side by side h5's @ hr 45 & 51 and compared with hr 51/57 with 6z. It's a huge step. I think I'm caving on this one. I've tried to fight the urge because it's so damn time consuming picking apart every run but the GFS just pushed me over the edge. [ you're not fighting this as much as you fought that lil b**ch Sandy, you must be wore out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for these side-by-sides, Bob. Very helpful. I hate clicking back and forth between browser windows/tabs. I agree it's a fairly big step. I admit to not paying very close attention to this storm yet (November snowfall suspicion bias), but hasn't the GFS been bouncing around a bit for the last few days between OTS and something close enough for precip in our area? Either way, a change at this stage in the game, ~72 hours out when the vort is being well-sampled, should be given more weight then one 3 days ago. No prob. I'm really efficient at it and it really helps seeing them right next to each other instead of trying to toggle. I'm going to add 0z to the side by side and post shortly. The nam is doing the same thing so I don't think this move is just a "bounce". It could be but thinking about how steadfast the euro has been and now other important guidance has made a clear shift combined with how short of a lead we're at really brings some optimism. At least for me it does but I'm always biased and since I'm a weenie it doesn't matter what I think. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Valid to be concerned about the Euro overamping. It's done so at least a handful of times in recent winters. However all the globals have a big storm for the most part. GFS is so often east in this range it's hard to say its any more right than the Euro. IMO you should weight the Euro/ens at the point where we currently sit. I only have free access to the Euro's ensemble members, so while I can see that the OP and mean are in agreement I can't see what they look like between 12Z and 0Z on Wednesday when the mean ends up further a good bit further east and weaker than the OP. In fact, the 0Z Euro mean looks pretty similar to the 6Z GFS mean at 0Z Thursday: The GFS members show a decent amount of spread, though. So much so that eight of the members are basically duds for us, two are great/decent...and two are Eh... I wonder if the EC members are similarly spread thus resulting borderline okay mean solution that doesn't actually represent the opinions of any of the individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 you're not fighting this as much as you fought that lil b**ch Sandy, you must be wore out! That big beeyotch made my pupils turn into rectangles. I'm much better this time. I just started paying close attention and we only got 48 hours before jackpot or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just did side by side h5's @ hr 45 & 51 and compared with hr 51/57 with 6z. It's a huge step. I think I'm caving on this one. I've tried to fight the urge because it's so damn time consuming picking apart every run but the GFS just pushed me over the edge. Bob, thanks for posting those. Pretty big differences to my unknowing eyes. I may be starting to fade myself. I've never bought this one. I'd sure like to see it happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ion! Check your email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 idk- I think the gfs is a big step towards the euro. I have no idea if it will go as extreme as the euro but it sure moved towards it. Best bet is still the blend of the euro-gfs. "Euro/GFS blend" seems to be the fall-back option for pretty much everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ion! Check your email I'm in a mtg.. Can't do much right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If anything 0z was onto closing h5 before the 6z went the other way. If you compare 0z to 12z it's a more natural progression towards the desired solution. The GFS really wants to wrap this thing up earlier than yesterday's runs. That's the most significant takeaway for me. The euro has just been steady freddie at closing up h5 perfectly to our south and putting us into the hot and heavy deform stuff. A good analogy of what we want to happen is the cyclone hitting it's adolescent growth spurt over our heads before it becomes mature and flabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Always nice to see you pop in and say things like this. What time frame are you thinking for the 6-10hr period? Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Uh oh! We need a Weenie Weather Maps thread! I can see them starting soon! Here is JB's forecast! http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/265492463106535424/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=265492463106535424 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. This will be a strong storm everywhere. Certainly DC burbs into ERN PA are under the gun for a 6-10hr pasting. Don't do this to me. Remember that time I bailed you out of that foxhole in 'Nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Excellent. Thank you. Yea, I totally understand about location. Unfortunately for me, my house is usually frustrating close but 20 miles to my NW is cashing in. I wouldn't expect this to be any different if it does snow. I'll get lucky with an inch or 2 as it pulls away. But heck, 2" is damn close to my seasonal total last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Sorry but i just wanted to highlight the important parts before everyone says all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HGR is looking pretty good now, eh? Of course it is, now that I left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Leesburg don't let me down. Snow in Western 'burbs. Is there a banter thread for this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Don't do this to me. Remember that time I bailed you out of that foxhole in 'Nam? Well don't confuse "potential" with "locked" lol. It's still quite possible the DC area is on the wrn precip fringe. This is not an easy task to figure out. Trying to narrow down a band that might have a 30-50 mile wide swath of snow that depends on dynamics in a marginal atmosphere is difficult at best. It would be wise to keep expectations in check for now, but it certainly is on the table. If the euro hangs tough, then I would feel better, but I'm unsure how far west the precip makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sorry but i just wanted to highlight the important parts before everyone says all snow. So you think. This is all anyone read: Well maybe late Wed aftn into Wed night. Just remember it's all about placement in this band. It's not going to be something where all QPF will be snow, it will probably only snow where the strongest echoes lie. Big bust potential and have fun figuring that out..lol. All you can say right now, is the potential is there for some snow in the DC area..especially spots higher up...and on into NW NJ/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GGEM follows up RGEM with big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For instance, that s/w that initiates cyclogenesis...if that decides to become very convective, it may act to keep a tighter area of precip and not spread it so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GGEM a bit SW of its 0z position by 0z on Thurday. Maybe 25-50mi? Tight precip gradient over DC/Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 So you think. This is all anyone read: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm in a mtg.. Can't do much right now ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I wouldn't even focus heavily on elevation partly since those areas might not get into heavy precip. Obviously elevation helps when available but a euro solution would give just about anyone snow who gets the comma head. Anyone who has lived here a while knows how to be skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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