EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I get cold and clouds. Maybe a flurry if I'm lucky. It'll change. It has only like 16 times already in the past 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is coming aboard. #bookit Total QPF around .2 to .3 DC proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Total QPF around .2 to .3 DC proper? Looks like .3-.4" which is .3-.4" more than last run. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It'll change. It has only like 16 times already in the past 4 days. It really needs to come west to get anything substantial here in SWVA, but I'll be watching it for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 He should not be honored, the only reason you are letting him drive the bus is because you will be to drunk after Obama's win tomorrow night. I wish. I'll be in the office counting PEB's with tens of thousands of votes on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Up here in Baltimore, that's a pretty nice hit. 6 inches (#clownmapsdisclaimer) from a model that was basically wide right a couple runs ago - ya gotta like the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 idk- I think the gfs is a big step towards the euro. I have no idea if it will go as extreme as the euro but it sure moved towards it. Best bet is still the blend of the euro-gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is coming aboard. #bookit I might have to scan my smart trip card and get on your bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It really needs to come west to get anything substantial here in SWVA, but I'll be watching it for sure. RGEM/EURO/JMA so solid hits for you. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I might have to scan my smart trip card and get on your bus. +1 We may need a second bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Wes better be working on that CWG article. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 idk- I think the gfs is a big step towards the euro. I have no idea if it will go as extreme as the euro but it sure moved towards it. Best bet is still the blend of the euro-gfs. Seems like this run of the gfs is a blend of previous gfs runs and the euro....still room to come West???? Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Talk about a Son of Sandy. Fakes right, left hook, and then just sits off Jersey while it becomes vertically stacked and fills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Talk about a Son of Sandy. Fakes right, left hook, and then just sits off Jersey while it becomes vertically stacked and fills. The upper levels look prime for our area. Look out for a deform as it becomes vertically stacked. Could be ultimate occluded screw job for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I might have to scan my smart trip card and get on your bus. I've named it after you and stocked it with mint julips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Seems like this run of the gfs is a blend of previous gfs runs and the euro....still room to come West???? Maybe I just did side by side h5's @ hr 45 & 51 and compared with hr 51/57 with 6z. It's a huge step. I think I'm caving on this one. I've tried to fight the urge because it's so damn time consuming picking apart every run but the GFS just pushed me over the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can we make this the psuhoffman storm 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Can we make this the psuhoffman storm 2? Nah, he had his moment of glory. No sense overwriting the fond memories of mashed potatoes, gridlock, power outages, and my house getting down to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I've named it after you and stocked it with mint julips. Sometimes I think you really like me. Pray for me tomorrow night and hope I'm not on the news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The upper levels look prime for our area. Look out for a deform as it becomes vertically stacked. Could be ultimate occluded screw job for SNE. LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. This will be a strong storm everywhere. Certainly DC burbs into ERN PA are under the gun for a 6-10hr pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nah, he had his moment of glory. No sense overwriting the fond memories of mashed potatoes, gridlock, power outages, and my house getting down to 38. Haha. Sounds like a blast. That was one interesting system. As usual we need this to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. This will be a strong storm everywhere. Certainly DC burbs into ERN PA are under the gun for a 6-10hr pasting. Always nice to see you pop in and say things like this. What time frame are you thinking for the 6-10hr period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 no. and we need a banter thread to get the Mr. B contingent out of the grown up analysis thread. Have a nice day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sometimes I think you really like me. Pray for me tomorrow night and hope I'm not on the news. A Romney win then a cold rain for DC. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for these side-by-sides, Bob. Very helpful. I hate clicking back and forth between browser windows/tabs. I agree it's a fairly big step. I admit to not paying very close attention to this storm yet (November snowfall suspicion bias), but hasn't the GFS been bouncing around a bit for the last few days between OTS and something close enough for precip in our area? Either way, a change at this stage in the game, ~72 hours out when the vort is being well-sampled, should be given more weight then one 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL and then we you are up here, you'll be saying that about the MA. Hey hey hey, I'm only interpreting model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I just did side by side h5's @ hr 45 & 51 and compared with hr 51/57 with 6z. It's a huge step. I think I'm caving on this one. I've tried to fight the urge because it's so damn time consuming picking apart every run but the GFS just pushed me over the edge. [ you're not fighting this as much as you fought that lil b**ch Sandy, you must be wore out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for these side-by-sides, Bob. Very helpful. I hate clicking back and forth between browser windows/tabs. I agree it's a fairly big step. I admit to not paying very close attention to this storm yet (November snowfall suspicion bias), but hasn't the GFS been bouncing around a bit for the last few days between OTS and something close enough for precip in our area? Either way, a change at this stage in the game, ~72 hours out when the vort is being well-sampled, should be given more weight then one 3 days ago. No prob. I'm really efficient at it and it really helps seeing them right next to each other instead of trying to toggle. I'm going to add 0z to the side by side and post shortly. The nam is doing the same thing so I don't think this move is just a "bounce". It could be but thinking about how steadfast the euro has been and now other important guidance has made a clear shift combined with how short of a lead we're at really brings some optimism. At least for me it does but I'm always biased and since I'm a weenie it doesn't matter what I think. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Valid to be concerned about the Euro overamping. It's done so at least a handful of times in recent winters. However all the globals have a big storm for the most part. GFS is so often east in this range it's hard to say its any more right than the Euro. IMO you should weight the Euro/ens at the point where we currently sit. I only have free access to the Euro's ensemble members, so while I can see that the OP and mean are in agreement I can't see what they look like between 12Z and 0Z on Wednesday when the mean ends up further a good bit further east and weaker than the OP. In fact, the 0Z Euro mean looks pretty similar to the 6Z GFS mean at 0Z Thursday: The GFS members show a decent amount of spread, though. So much so that eight of the members are basically duds for us, two are great/decent...and two are Eh... I wonder if the EC members are similarly spread thus resulting borderline okay mean solution that doesn't actually represent the opinions of any of the individual members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 you're not fighting this as much as you fought that lil b**ch Sandy, you must be wore out! That big beeyotch made my pupils turn into rectangles. I'm much better this time. I just started paying close attention and we only got 48 hours before jackpot or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.