Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Did any models have Sandy going out to sea? The GFS had this Nor'easter first for what it's worth. I'm not saying that I think the GFS is better, but I also don't think any model should be leaned on more than others. Isn't this why ensembles are used? Don't you remember? - The GFS was pretty insistent on Sandy harmlessly heading out to sea for many runs. Although...on all of those runs it seemed to be close to phasing but just never did until closer to the event. Meanwhile, the Euro kept banging the drum of the landfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I do but on phone now and won't be at a computer much till noon. Didn't look just checked clown maps. #weenieing Sounds like the first thing you check is the Clown maps. You sound like someone that eats dessert before the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks. Though I will admit the clown maps are fun to look at if those surface temps were to verify during the height of the storm at best I think we would see a sloppy inch or two. I gotta look into it more, but 0z was much colder at the UL's as you said you noticed also, and the sfc is trending colder and could continue, the GEM turned much colder at 0z in compariso to yday's 12z run, bringing snow to I-95. The canadian is typically one of the warmest, so that was a nice step for us, and if were at 34 and heavy snow starts falling, you can bet places would drop below 32 for that duration, we've seen it many of times, thereby making accums easier relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There really isn't a valid reason to doubt the Euro's depiction, unless there's evidence it's handling the broad scale synoptic features incorrectly. Otherwise, given the Euro's recent performance, the 00z run is a plausible solution, despite the calendar date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sounds like the first thing you check is the Clown maps. You sound like someone that eats dessert before the main course. Short on time plus I already saw it was good by reading the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I gotta look into it more, but 0z was much colder at the UL's as you said you noticed also, and the sfc is trending colder and could continue, the GEM turned much colder at 0z in compariso to yday's 12z run, bringing snow to I-95. The canadian is typically one of the warmest, so that was a nice step f Real pain not having access to the temp profile on the Euro. Basically have to resort to getting pieces here or there on the boards or checking one of the clown maps to get a hint of where the Euro may support snow. I do have to admit I like the fact that it seems we are seeing some of the models showing a colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There really isn't a valid reason to doubt the Euro's depiction, unless there's evidence it's handling the broad scale synoptic features incorrectly. Otherwise, given the Euro's recent performance, the 00z run is a plausible solution, despite the calendar date. But that's the point isn't it - despite the calendar date. I think the date is what's driving so much of the skepticism. Climo-wise, it would be an extremely unusual event to see more than a trace of snow in DC in the first week of November, no matter how good the Euro proved itself with Sandy. If this was Jan/Feb, it'd be a lot easier to have #faithintheflakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We saw the same situation last week.....EURO locked in......dont try to fight it, it nailed Sandy and oddly enough its locked in again... This is going to be the winter of blocking and the EURO being right........lets face it we deserve an impressive winter after the dud we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We should all consider the potential that this will be our big snowstorm of the year and we will flip warm and mild for the rest of winter This is our ONE SHOT. #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quick question - when will the upper air features be over our sampling network? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There really isn't a valid reason to doubt the Euro's depiction, unless there's evidence it's handling the broad scale synoptic features incorrectly. Otherwise, given the Euro's recent performance, the 00z run is a plausible solution, despite the calendar date. But that's the point isn't it - despite the calendar date. I think the date is what's driving so much of the skepticism. Climo-wise, it would be an extremely unusual event to see more than a trace of snow in DC in the first week of November, no matter how good the Euro proved itself with Sandy. If this was Jan/Feb, it'd be a lot easier to have #faithintheflakes... It's also the deepest, earliest, most wrapped up solution, which is what needs to happen for DC snow. It's plausible, but despite its track record, I don't think it's the most likely outcome at this time. Blending the GFS and Euro will get you to a solution that is more likely. And using Sandy as the reason to buy the Euro and dismiss all the other guidance is setting yourself up for failure (look at Isaac and Debby this year for examples when humping the Euro would have cost you big time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quick question - when will the upper air features be over our sampling network? Already there. The big player is the shortwave over the Central Plains right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I got blasted for crowning the Euro king before Sandy eventually verified its solution. So I wont claim a victor early again. It seems the Euro is just more capable of handling blocky patterns. It has not wavered from keeping the storm close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Already there. The big player is the shortwave over the Central Plains right now. Thanks. So hopefully we start getting better agreement. I always appreciate when mets from outside the subforum pop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Early on, its not looking like the NAM is gonna do it for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I got blasted for crowning the Euro king before Sandy eventually verified its solution. So I wont claim a victor early again. It seems the Euro is just more capable of handling blocky patterns. It has not wavered from keeping the storm close to the coast. The difference being that the blocking isn't as strong this time around, which is helping the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Already there. The big player is the shortwave over the Central Plains right now. Yep, and it still seems innocent and harmless: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's also the deepest, earliest, most wrapped up solution, which is what needs to happen for DC snow. It's plausible, but despite its track record, I don't think it's the most likely outcome at this time. Blending the GFS and Euro will get you to a solution that is more likely. And using Sandy as the reason to buy the Euro and dismiss all the other guidance is setting yourself up for failure (look at Isaac and Debby this year for examples when humping the Euro would have cost you big time). Thanks for your insight, and you are absolutely correct. Just commenting on the propensity to doubt early season snowfall around here, and the better verification scores on the Euro. The last thing I want to do this week is shovel snow, and for the good of NJ/NY, I'd prefer a weaker more OTS outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for your insight, and you are absolutely correct. Just commenting on the propensity to doubt early season snowfall around here, and the better verification scores on the Euro. The last thing I want to do this week is shovel snow, and for the good of NJ/NY, I'd prefer a weaker more OTS outcome. Blasphemy!!!!!!!!!!!! #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks for your insight, and you are absolutely correct. Just commenting on the propensity to doubt early season snowfall around here, and the better verification scores on the Euro. The last thing I want to do this week is shovel snow, and for the good of NJ/NY, I'd prefer a weaker more OTS outcome. I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. Why not, the disingenuity doesnt belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nam seems to be stuck @ 36 but there is only a slight difference @h5 so far. Digs just a tad further south but I doubt it can close off in time on this run. Edit: noticeable differences starting at hr 39. Trending stronger and further south for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. You are my hero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Early on, its not looking like the NAM is gonna do it for us It might not, but to me (at 39h) it looks a touch more favorable than 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Will the clipper save us? #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 2nd worst weather-related hashtag behind #snOMG, and not just because they have to do with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Trough definitely sharper vs 6z nam. It's not going to do it on this run but I see nothing glaring to say the euro is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. I'd love for you to get tons of snow, wind, etc, power loss and structural damage, so you can feel great about your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd love for you to get tons of snow, wind, etc, power loss and structural damage, so you can feel great about your back yard. We are here because we want snow, if you wanna feel bad go somewhere else, no offense. Ian is driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Anyone got good euro 3meter temps for 21z 7 Nov, based on the wunderground, I get something like this. Does it seem correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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