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Election week coastal storm threat


Midlo Snow Maker

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You will regret it, be careful.

I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here.

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I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here.

Snow yes 4"-8" highly unlikely, even accumulating snow is very low.

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Snow yes 4"-8" highly unlikely, even accumulating snow is very low.

Though typically you may be right, when you get under the comma head it brings down those colder 850's and if its snowing hard enough it certainly accumlate. That is additional to our preceding airmass being not too warm and not like February 2011 where we had 70 degrees and then 4" of snow. I know thats February, but temperatures are colder leading up to this, so i wouldn't be surprised to see models like the Euro continue to trend colder.

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Though typically you may be right, when you get under the comma head it brings down those colder 850's and if its snowing hard enough it certainly accumlate. That is additional to our preceding airmass being not too warm and not like February 2011 where we had 70 degrees and then 4" of snow. I know thats February, but temperatures are colder leading up to this, so i wouldn't be surprised to see models like the Euro continue to trend colder.

Weenie rationalization ;) just kidding around with you -

I'm impressed the Euro is holding serve like it did with Sandy. Kind of impressive...

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I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here.

You don't have access to the temp profiles by any chance? I saw that the 850's and 500's came in colder and was wondering about the lower levels.

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You don't have access to the temp profiles by any chance? I saw that the 850's and 500's came in colder and was wondering about the lower levels.

I'm pretty sure he does, and I do as well, was around 34-35 at the sfc, and with heavy commahead precip and colder 850's to mix down we'd have a real chance at it. Edit: 34-35 was at hr 72, im at class, so Ian can give you more

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Weenie rationalization wink.png just kidding around with you -

I'm impressed the Euro is holding serve like it did with Sandy. Kind of impressive...

I'd be more concerned about getting nothing at all or some drizzle or something than no snow in the event of a good storm. The diff between the Euro and GFS is concerning for sure.. obviously why no one is making any big calls in public. But I'm not of the opinion that we'll just end up with a deform band of rain.

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You don't have access to the temp profiles by any chance? I saw that the 850's and 500's came in colder and was wondering about the lower levels.

I do but on phone now and won't be at a computer much till noon. Didn't look just checked clown maps. ;) #weenieing

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I'd be more concerned about getting nothing at all or some drizzle or something than no snow in the event of a good storm. The diff between the Euro and GFS is concerning for sure.. obviously why no one is making any big calls in public. But I'm not of the opinion that we'll just end up with a deform band of rain.

Even given the euros status as the god of weather models...I think had Sandy not happened I would toss this potential away much more easily. But given how insistent it was with Sandy not going out to sea...I'm very intrigued. It just keeps holding...

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I'd be more concerned about getting nothing at all or some drizzle or something than no snow in the event of a good storm. The diff between the Euro and GFS is concerning for sure.. obviously why no one is making any big calls in public. But I'm not of the opinion that we'll just end up with a deform band of rain.

Thats how I feel, it would be pouring, just snow not rain, those sfc temps coupled with evap cooling through heavy precip certainly make it possible.

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I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here.

Yeah, I don't get it, lol. I'm usually bullish on storms like this and you'd be bearish on something similar to February 2, 2010. I'm honestly haven't a hard to investing for some reason.

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I'm pretty sure he does, and I do as well, was around 34-35 at the sfc, and with heavy commahead precip and colder 850's to mix down we'd have a real chance at it. Edit: 34-35 was at hr 72, im at class, so Ian can give you more

Thanks. Though I will admit the clown maps are fun to look at if those surface temps were to verify during the height of the storm at best I think we would see a sloppy inch or two.

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Yeah, I don't get it, lol. I'm usually bullish on storms like this and you'd be bearish on something similar to February 2, 2010. I'm honestly haven't a hard to investing for some reason.

I've never driven a bus before. Hopefully I don't run into a wall.

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Even given the euros status as the god of weather models...I think had Sandy not happened I would toss this potential away much more easily. But given how insistent it was with Sandy not going out to sea...I'm very intrigued. It just keeps holding...

Did any models have Sandy going out to sea? The GFS had this Nor'easter first for what it's worth. I'm not saying that I think the GFS is better, but I also don't think any model should be leaned on more than others. Isn't this why ensembles are used?

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HM just had a great post in the NE forum. Nice explanation of why the euro and gfs are so different. Didnt say one was any more right or wrong than the other but did mention a compromise is a good call.

Euro wraps up and closes off sooner. That's the primary difference and is what I plan on looking at today with the other models. Especially the nam this evening.

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