Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 8-12" on Euro op and 4-8" on euro ens mean. WOOOOOOO. some sick maps even for a mid winter storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You will regret it, be careful. I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here. Snow yes 4"-8" highly unlikely, even accumulating snow is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This Nor'easter will be a good test for the Euro, NAM, and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This Nor'easter will be Sandy was a good test for the Euro, NAM, and GFS. FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Snow yes 4"-8" highly unlikely, even accumulating snow is very low. Though typically you may be right, when you get under the comma head it brings down those colder 850's and if its snowing hard enough it certainly accumlate. That is additional to our preceding airmass being not too warm and not like February 2011 where we had 70 degrees and then 4" of snow. I know thats February, but temperatures are colder leading up to this, so i wouldn't be surprised to see models like the Euro continue to trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Though typically you may be right, when you get under the comma head it brings down those colder 850's and if its snowing hard enough it certainly accumlate. That is additional to our preceding airmass being not too warm and not like February 2011 where we had 70 degrees and then 4" of snow. I know thats February, but temperatures are colder leading up to this, so i wouldn't be surprised to see models like the Euro continue to trend colder. Weenie rationalization just kidding around with you - I'm impressed the Euro is holding serve like it did with Sandy. Kind of impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here. You don't have access to the temp profiles by any chance? I saw that the 850's and 500's came in colder and was wondering about the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You don't have access to the temp profiles by any chance? I saw that the 850's and 500's came in colder and was wondering about the lower levels. I'm pretty sure he does, and I do as well, was around 34-35 at the sfc, and with heavy commahead precip and colder 850's to mix down we'd have a real chance at it. Edit: 34-35 was at hr 72, im at class, so Ian can give you more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just for fun, here's the total snowfall accumulation map from the Canadian model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Weenie rationalization just kidding around with you - I'm impressed the Euro is holding serve like it did with Sandy. Kind of impressive... I'd be more concerned about getting nothing at all or some drizzle or something than no snow in the event of a good storm. The diff between the Euro and GFS is concerning for sure.. obviously why no one is making any big calls in public. But I'm not of the opinion that we'll just end up with a deform band of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 You don't have access to the temp profiles by any chance? I saw that the 850's and 500's came in colder and was wondering about the lower levels. I do but on phone now and won't be at a computer much till noon. Didn't look just checked clown maps. #weenieing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd be more concerned about getting nothing at all or some drizzle or something than no snow in the event of a good storm. The diff between the Euro and GFS is concerning for sure.. obviously why no one is making any big calls in public. But I'm not of the opinion that we'll just end up with a deform band of rain. Even given the euros status as the god of weather models...I think had Sandy not happened I would toss this potential away much more easily. But given how insistent it was with Sandy not going out to sea...I'm very intrigued. It just keeps holding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd be more concerned about getting nothing at all or some drizzle or something than no snow in the event of a good storm. The diff between the Euro and GFS is concerning for sure.. obviously why no one is making any big calls in public. But I'm not of the opinion that we'll just end up with a deform band of rain. Thats how I feel, it would be pouring, just snow not rain, those sfc temps coupled with evap cooling through heavy precip certainly make it possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm usually as bearish as they come around here. But how long do we ignore the Euro? I mean, it could be up to its rare game but we're within range now that if it holds again I'm not sure how people can keep dismissing the chance. I'd not go with its totals but I'm increasingly confident it will snow around here. Yeah, I don't get it, lol. I'm usually bullish on storms like this and you'd be bearish on something similar to February 2, 2010. I'm honestly haven't a hard to investing for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm pretty sure he does, and I do as well, was around 34-35 at the sfc, and with heavy commahead precip and colder 850's to mix down we'd have a real chance at it. Edit: 34-35 was at hr 72, im at class, so Ian can give you more Thanks. Though I will admit the clown maps are fun to look at if those surface temps were to verify during the height of the storm at best I think we would see a sloppy inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think at this point think seeing flakes of some kind is very likely, and in early November, that is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, I don't get it, lol. I'm usually bullish on storms like this and you'd be bearish on something similar to February 2, 2010. I'm honestly haven't a hard to investing for some reason. I've never driven a bus before. Hopefully I don't run into a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Even given the euros status as the god of weather models...I think had Sandy not happened I would toss this potential away much more easily. But given how insistent it was with Sandy not going out to sea...I'm very intrigued. It just keeps holding... Did any models have Sandy going out to sea? The GFS had this Nor'easter first for what it's worth. I'm not saying that I think the GFS is better, but I also don't think any model should be leaned on more than others. Isn't this why ensembles are used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 HM just had a great post in the NE forum. Nice explanation of why the euro and gfs are so different. Didnt say one was any more right or wrong than the other but did mention a compromise is a good call. Euro wraps up and closes off sooner. That's the primary difference and is what I plan on looking at today with the other models. Especially the nam this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Did any models have Sandy going out to sea? The GFS had this Nor'easter first for what it's worth. I'm not saying that I think the GFS is better, but I also don't think any model should be leaned on more than others. Isn't this why ensembles are used? Don't you remember? - The GFS was pretty insistent on Sandy harmlessly heading out to sea for many runs. Although...on all of those runs it seemed to be close to phasing but just never did until closer to the event. Meanwhile, the Euro kept banging the drum of the landfall potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I do but on phone now and won't be at a computer much till noon. Didn't look just checked clown maps. #weenieing Sounds like the first thing you check is the Clown maps. You sound like someone that eats dessert before the main course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thanks. Though I will admit the clown maps are fun to look at if those surface temps were to verify during the height of the storm at best I think we would see a sloppy inch or two. I gotta look into it more, but 0z was much colder at the UL's as you said you noticed also, and the sfc is trending colder and could continue, the GEM turned much colder at 0z in compariso to yday's 12z run, bringing snow to I-95. The canadian is typically one of the warmest, so that was a nice step for us, and if were at 34 and heavy snow starts falling, you can bet places would drop below 32 for that duration, we've seen it many of times, thereby making accums easier relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There really isn't a valid reason to doubt the Euro's depiction, unless there's evidence it's handling the broad scale synoptic features incorrectly. Otherwise, given the Euro's recent performance, the 00z run is a plausible solution, despite the calendar date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sounds like the first thing you check is the Clown maps. You sound like someone that eats dessert before the main course. Short on time plus I already saw it was good by reading the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I gotta look into it more, but 0z was much colder at the UL's as you said you noticed also, and the sfc is trending colder and could continue, the GEM turned much colder at 0z in compariso to yday's 12z run, bringing snow to I-95. The canadian is typically one of the warmest, so that was a nice step f Real pain not having access to the temp profile on the Euro. Basically have to resort to getting pieces here or there on the boards or checking one of the clown maps to get a hint of where the Euro may support snow. I do have to admit I like the fact that it seems we are seeing some of the models showing a colder look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There really isn't a valid reason to doubt the Euro's depiction, unless there's evidence it's handling the broad scale synoptic features incorrectly. Otherwise, given the Euro's recent performance, the 00z run is a plausible solution, despite the calendar date. But that's the point isn't it - despite the calendar date. I think the date is what's driving so much of the skepticism. Climo-wise, it would be an extremely unusual event to see more than a trace of snow in DC in the first week of November, no matter how good the Euro proved itself with Sandy. If this was Jan/Feb, it'd be a lot easier to have #faithintheflakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We saw the same situation last week.....EURO locked in......dont try to fight it, it nailed Sandy and oddly enough its locked in again... This is going to be the winter of blocking and the EURO being right........lets face it we deserve an impressive winter after the dud we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We should all consider the potential that this will be our big snowstorm of the year and we will flip warm and mild for the rest of winter This is our ONE SHOT. #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Quick question - when will the upper air features be over our sampling network? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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