showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And now the 6Z GFS goes way east. These models are having one terrible time with this system. Unreal. Seems like we have seen this before (Sandy). Euro keeps the storm closer to the coast with a subtler turn to the left whereas the GFS takes it out to sea farther with a more drastic turn to the left resulting in a farther north solution. And thinking about it didn't the NAM do this as well when it came to Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And now the 6Z GFS goes way east. These models are having one terrible time with this system. Unreal. I would wait until the 12z runs role in. The GFS is probably too far east, but even the euro ensembles sort of kept best QPF to the east of 95 from my crude maps. Euro was interesting though..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I would wait until the 12z runs role in. The GFS is probably too far east, but even the euro ensembles sort of kept best QPF to the east of 95 from my crude maps. Euro was interesting though..lol. The overall mean looks pretty near the op maybe 100 miles east from what I seen. Don't have qpf maps for it though. I seen JMA was pretty big hit as well. Rough forecasting for mets around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Let us see how this pans out but if the Euro were to verify on track and strength that would be a pretty impressive 2 week run for it. Locking onto a solution 7 days or so out and then running with it for the duration. Don't have access to the precip maps so I am not sure how the Euro did on that as far as verification for Sandy. Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Taking note 6z rgem is significantly more nw at 48 then 6z nam or Gfs. Has a 989 just east of Wilmington nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The overall mean looks pretty near the op maybe 100 miles east from what I seen. Don't have qpf maps for it though. I seen JMA was pretty big hit as well. Rough forecasting for mets around here. It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. Everyone at penn state thought I was crazy back in Oct 2009 when I said to people it was going to snow 3-6" on campus. Even my professors were like ya maybe an inch. We got 6". Seems these early season snows are becoming more common. We just had one last year again so hey why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. You don't have access to the temp profiles of the lower levels on the Euro by any chance? Saw that the 500's and 850's had cooled and was curious about the others as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How can the Gfs have nothing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's the comma head delight on the euro. Now that would get you snow. Comma heads do like Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How can the Gfs have nothing for us Because the weather gods are in cahoots with the GFS and their goal is to "screw Ji" whenever possible Happy Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. Oddly enough, I'm still doubtful the Euro is going to be right. Usually I start getting excited and invested in something like this. I mean the euro is on this thing hard. Meanwhile, the nam and gfs are saying wha? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oddly enough, I'm still doubtful the Euro is going to be right. Usually I start getting excited and invested in something like this. I mean the euro is on this thing hard. Meanwhile, the nam and gfs are saying wha? That's why I would wait until the 12z runs come in to be sure. At this time range though, hard to beat euro and ensembles, but a compromise is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oddly enough, I'm still doubtful the Euro is going to be right. Usually I start getting excited and invested in something like this. I mean the euro is on this thing hard. Meanwhile, the nam and gfs are saying wha? Whats odd is aren't we like within 72 hours now? Realistically isn't that the time frame that the euro should be performing the best? Ha....never an easy feeling here in DC...even when it comes to rain...dry on some...wet on others...white on one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oddly enough, I'm still doubtful the Euro is going to be right. Usually I start getting excited and invested in something like this. I mean the euro is on this thing hard. Meanwhile, the nam and gfs are saying wha? If this were a game of hold em, the Euro is all in. Is there any model even close to it. Going to be an amazing job or crushing fail by the Euro this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 If this were a game of hold em, the Euro is all in. Is there any model even close to it. Going to be an amazing job or crushing fail by the Euro this time. Ahh at 0z the GGEM was a pretty big hit snow wise for many from DC/BAL west and north up through the 80 corridor of PA, 9 hrs of snow on the indiv maps for Baltimore with similar numbers for DC. Additionally, the JMA is on board for a big hit as well, which EasternUsWx keeps telling me is the 3rd best model in the world now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Today has to be the day the models start to move to a solution....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Today has to be the day the models start to move to a solution....right? Well, i guess there is a solution...there is a storm off the coast..just how far South it forms and how close to the coast it gets coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Today has to be the day the models start to move to a solution....right? Are you new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We saw the same situation last week.....EURO locked in......dont try to fight it, it nailed Sandy and oddly enough its locked in again... This is going to be the winter of blocking and the EURO being right........lets face it we deserve an impressive winter after the dud we had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Today has to be the day the models start to move to a solution....right? Seems like the EURO already has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oddly enough, I'm still doubtful the Euro is going to be right. Usually I start getting excited and invested in something like this. I mean the euro is on this thing hard. Meanwhile, the nam and gfs are saying wha? Euro, GGEM, JMA vs GFS/NAM- its like Hulk Hogan, Rick Flair and George the animal Steele vs the Junkyard dogs I'm convinced someone will see some flakes from this. For you and me being closer to and in DC it will be much tougher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Today has to be the day the models start to move to a solution....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Are you new here? Apparently so....what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Today has to be the day the models start to move to a solution....right? Not sure about that haha, EURO Ens precip is drier overall for us, but similar solution to the OP though the low pressure center tracks a bit east of the op, still QPF totals of .8" Baltimore and DC .85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Apparently so....what are your thoughts? There will be a storm along the coast with precip of a yet to be determined type. Just saying that took a lot of effort. I'm spent. I do think some will see snow. How much? I really don't know as i have a hard time believing the euro to pan out exactly as modeled on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Guidance should come into agreement today. We'll probably see the GFS shift west, and maybe the euro op be a little less wrapped up so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 When would this all start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 There will be a storm along the coast with precip of a yet to be determined type. Just saying that took a lot of effort. I'm spent. I do think some will see snow. How much? I really don't know as i have a hard time believing the euro to pan out exactly as modeled on the 0z Yeah....I didn't think you knew either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMET way out to sea ahead of time mitch accidentally had it, but the SLP placement is wayyy off judging by the h5 set-up in my opinion... should go from off SC coast to off VA similar to the GGEM track if it followed the heights but I'm not sure. it was out when I said it was OTS the Plymouth site has it quicker than the rest of the free sites http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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