ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What source are you using, it hasn't even initialized on my source? I think he was looking at the old run, it is not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMet is OTS Looking at 0z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 its kind of old data now already but I saw the posts about the SREF earlier and the 21z when it did come in, went way west...is a pretty good hit with precip over our area. Didn't see anyone go back and correct that. Yeah it did. Gfs pretty meh. Would be fitting for the euro to fail after so much praise with Sandy. Not sure much has changed tonight tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah it did. Gfs pretty meh. Would be fitting for the euro to fail after so much praise with Sandy. Not sure much has changed tonight tho. not sure the GFS is a total fail...sometimes the GFS moves towards a solution but does it in a less direct way. 0z was a minor step back from 18 but a move west over the 12z run. Besides..if you look at the H5 and H7 it would support the deform band getting further west I think they the liquid output suggests. I am not sure given the exact track of the GFS that precip wouldnt be more significant in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Have the models adjusted due to daylight savings? The earlier sunset could lead to better snow accumulations overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GGEM is much colder Not to mention we know how warm the GGEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looking at 0z last night Sent from my iPad HD Looks east to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMET way out to sea ahead of time mitch accidentally had it, but the SLP placement is wayyy off judging by the h5 set-up in my opinion... should go from off SC coast to off VA similar to the GGEM track if it followed the heights but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Haven't looked at any models since Sandy, until this evening. I'm not too impressed with what I'm seeing so far. Especially in regards to any precipitation in western VA. I can see you northern Virginianers maybe getting lucky enough to see some flakes if things play out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro looks like it is still going to be a huge hit. Maybe west of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok the EURO has like a 988 like 50-100 miles east of east of cape map. lol Very close to coast. Crushing run, colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like most went to bed before the EUro tonight... I was up putting together my lesson for tomorrow. Seems it held serve again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thermal profiles def look better in DC than the 12z run did. If the Euro happened verbatim, a lot of areas would see a burst of snow for a few hours as that commahead wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just as an FYI... I dont have 2m temps.. ORH I see you in here.. anything you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like most went to bed before the EUro tonight... I was up putting together my lesson for tomorrow. Seems it held serve again? Oh it didn't just hold serve it upped the game some more. 850's colder and 540 line nears. 32 at surface even comes into southern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro does some interesting stuff with the precip as it heads north... becomes very dry, but after it affects us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro appears to be about 75-100miles SW of the GFS @ 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro does some interesting stuff with the precip as it heads north... becomes very dry, but after it affects us Once the vort cuts off precip dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 euro nails us...1.5" QPF for immediate DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oh it didn't just hold serve it upped the game some more. 850's colder and 540 line nears. 32 at surface even comes into southern pa. thanks for info... I am more concerned about precip then temps right now. Don't get me wrong temps are a problem too...but wont matter if the heavy precip stays east of the area. Plus with my elevation here about 1000 feet I can usually do well with marginal temp situations if the precip is heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 thanks for info... I am more concerned about precip then temps right now. Don't get me wrong temps are a problem too...but wont matter if the heavy precip stays east of the area. Plus with my elevation here about 1000 feet I can usually do well with marginal temp situations if the precip is heavy. Plenty of QPF this run 1-1.5" I am betting snow map off Accuweather will have 9"+ for you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 euro nails us...1.5" QPF for immediate DC Thanks, sounds like it held with the further west precip sheild...plus with the 850 temp map it appears this run brings more snow threat even into the DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think right down to DCA would snow looking at the WSI maps and not just the hills. A definite real good 6 hour period in there with maybe a little more on each side, though this time of year with this type of marginal airmass anything light in rates won't stick or may even mix back with RA- a bit. I wouldn't bother looking at the wunderground snow maps...those always look like they were drawn up by Ji. But I think the Euro would give DCA accumulating snow. I don't think 4-6" would be impossible on that solution for DCA with 8"+ possible at IAD. Of course it has to work out perfect, but the Euro is close to just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Usually I would disregard the more extreme solution like this, but it's really hard to throw out the Euro when its locked in run after run like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very impressive! This could be historic in a sense if it pans out the way that ORHwxman described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Remember, you can have the hardest rates in the storm, but aint going to do crap with a ground temp of 38 and road temp of 42. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Remember, you can have the hardest rates in the storm, but aint going to do crap with a ground temp of 38 and road temp of 42. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. That stuff has all been said before and doesn't ever matter really. I mean it was 50 degrees and raining for OCT 29th storm last year then dropped to 33 and we got 6". Road temp was like 45+ the day before and still got covered. Also here is the 0Z euro snowfall based off of accuweather pros map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Clown map looks very Nov 1987ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's the comma head delight on the euro. Now that would get you snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And now the 6Z GFS goes way east. These models are having one terrible time with this system. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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