EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro looks like it is still going to be a huge hit. Maybe west of last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Ok the EURO has like a 988 like 50-100 miles east of east of cape map. lol Very close to coast. Crushing run, colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like most went to bed before the EUro tonight... I was up putting together my lesson for tomorrow. Seems it held serve again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thermal profiles def look better in DC than the 12z run did. If the Euro happened verbatim, a lot of areas would see a burst of snow for a few hours as that commahead wraps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just as an FYI... I dont have 2m temps.. ORH I see you in here.. anything you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looks like most went to bed before the EUro tonight... I was up putting together my lesson for tomorrow. Seems it held serve again? Oh it didn't just hold serve it upped the game some more. 850's colder and 540 line nears. 32 at surface even comes into southern pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro does some interesting stuff with the precip as it heads north... becomes very dry, but after it affects us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro appears to be about 75-100miles SW of the GFS @ 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Euro does some interesting stuff with the precip as it heads north... becomes very dry, but after it affects us Once the vort cuts off precip dries up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oh it didn't just hold serve it upped the game some more. 850's colder and 540 line nears. 32 at surface even comes into southern pa. thanks for info... I am more concerned about precip then temps right now. Don't get me wrong temps are a problem too...but wont matter if the heavy precip stays east of the area. Plus with my elevation here about 1000 feet I can usually do well with marginal temp situations if the precip is heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 thanks for info... I am more concerned about precip then temps right now. Don't get me wrong temps are a problem too...but wont matter if the heavy precip stays east of the area. Plus with my elevation here about 1000 feet I can usually do well with marginal temp situations if the precip is heavy. Plenty of QPF this run 1-1.5" I am betting snow map off Accuweather will have 9"+ for you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 euro nails us...1.5" QPF for immediate DC Thanks, sounds like it held with the further west precip sheild...plus with the 850 temp map it appears this run brings more snow threat even into the DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I think right down to DCA would snow looking at the WSI maps and not just the hills. A definite real good 6 hour period in there with maybe a little more on each side, though this time of year with this type of marginal airmass anything light in rates won't stick or may even mix back with RA- a bit. I wouldn't bother looking at the wunderground snow maps...those always look like they were drawn up by Ji. But I think the Euro would give DCA accumulating snow. I don't think 4-6" would be impossible on that solution for DCA with 8"+ possible at IAD. Of course it has to work out perfect, but the Euro is close to just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Usually I would disregard the more extreme solution like this, but it's really hard to throw out the Euro when its locked in run after run like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Very impressive! This could be historic in a sense if it pans out the way that ORHwxman described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Remember, you can have the hardest rates in the storm, but aint going to do crap with a ground temp of 38 and road temp of 42. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Remember, you can have the hardest rates in the storm, but aint going to do crap with a ground temp of 38 and road temp of 42. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. That stuff has all been said before and doesn't ever matter really. I mean it was 50 degrees and raining for OCT 29th storm last year then dropped to 33 and we got 6". Road temp was like 45+ the day before and still got covered. Also here is the 0Z euro snowfall based off of accuweather pros map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Clown map looks very Nov 1987ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's the comma head delight on the euro. Now that would get you snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And now the 6Z GFS goes way east. These models are having one terrible time with this system. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And now the 6Z GFS goes way east. These models are having one terrible time with this system. Unreal. Seems like we have seen this before (Sandy). Euro keeps the storm closer to the coast with a subtler turn to the left whereas the GFS takes it out to sea farther with a more drastic turn to the left resulting in a farther north solution. And thinking about it didn't the NAM do this as well when it came to Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And now the 6Z GFS goes way east. These models are having one terrible time with this system. Unreal. I would wait until the 12z runs role in. The GFS is probably too far east, but even the euro ensembles sort of kept best QPF to the east of 95 from my crude maps. Euro was interesting though..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I would wait until the 12z runs role in. The GFS is probably too far east, but even the euro ensembles sort of kept best QPF to the east of 95 from my crude maps. Euro was interesting though..lol. The overall mean looks pretty near the op maybe 100 miles east from what I seen. Don't have qpf maps for it though. I seen JMA was pretty big hit as well. Rough forecasting for mets around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Let us see how this pans out but if the Euro were to verify on track and strength that would be a pretty impressive 2 week run for it. Locking onto a solution 7 days or so out and then running with it for the duration. Don't have access to the precip maps so I am not sure how the Euro did on that as far as verification for Sandy. Does anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Taking note 6z rgem is significantly more nw at 48 then 6z nam or Gfs. Has a 989 just east of Wilmington nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The overall mean looks pretty near the op maybe 100 miles east from what I seen. Don't have qpf maps for it though. I seen JMA was pretty big hit as well. Rough forecasting for mets around here. It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. Everyone at penn state thought I was crazy back in Oct 2009 when I said to people it was going to snow 3-6" on campus. Even my professors were like ya maybe an inch. We got 6". Seems these early season snows are becoming more common. We just had one last year again so hey why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It wasn't far from the op though. I may have to warn about the S word to clients as crazy as it sounds. LOL. You don't have access to the temp profiles of the lower levels on the Euro by any chance? Saw that the 500's and 850's had cooled and was curious about the others as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 How can the Gfs have nothing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's the comma head delight on the euro. Now that would get you snow. Comma heads do like Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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