Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM might be right looks like mainly northern new england that gets snow. Climo ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It'll keep coming west. Hug the euro but double the snowfall. Exactly. Ten days ago it showed .75+ of snow for RIC for Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is really the best solution for NY and NJ. Stays far enough east to spare them the worst. And if its not gonna snow here. Let that be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is really the best solution for NY and NJ. Stays far enough east to spare them the worst. And if its not gonna snow here. Let that be the case. well put! The only thing is we might have to end up waiting until around the first week of December until our first snowfall with recent NAO trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I hope we don't have to pretend not to want to see big storms for too long. Seems a bit disingenuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 well put! The only thing is we might have to end up waiting until around the first week of December until our first snowfall with recent NAO trends. Depends which model you look at. The Euro wants to tank the NAO again towards the end of Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 My forecast for sdandy to trend further northeast didn't pan out. However for this one, I am also forecasting it to verify further northeast. It's a noreaster, like 12/26/2010. These things usually don't wrap up as fast as expected. Don't worry Blizz is still getting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Thank goodness for the end of daylight savings time to enable earlier GFS initializations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM is really the best solution for NY and NJ. Stays far enough east to spare them the worst. And if its not gonna snow here. Let that be the case. Screw that. I'm full weenie mode. I want this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Through 36 the GFS is similar to 18z, differences minuscule as the h5 closes/opens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Not even a sprinkle on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Mostly a miss for the MA. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Spoke too soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The 500mb setup almost went exactly to the euro. Probably still some gfs shifts to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just stalls it there for 12 hrs? Ok goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Gfs looks like some marginal snow verbatim. Nothing overly impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 models, models, we need more models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 by accident, I wanted to take a look at the coming possible event on satellite and stumbled onto this not bad sat movie of Sandy http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/movie-large.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMet is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 its kind of old data now already but I saw the posts about the SREF earlier and the 21z when it did come in, went way west...is a pretty good hit with precip over our area. Didn't see anyone go back and correct that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMet is OTS What source are you using, it hasn't even initialized on my source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What source are you using, it hasn't even initialized on my source? I think he was looking at the old run, it is not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMet is OTS Looking at 0z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 its kind of old data now already but I saw the posts about the SREF earlier and the 21z when it did come in, went way west...is a pretty good hit with precip over our area. Didn't see anyone go back and correct that. Yeah it did. Gfs pretty meh. Would be fitting for the euro to fail after so much praise with Sandy. Not sure much has changed tonight tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah it did. Gfs pretty meh. Would be fitting for the euro to fail after so much praise with Sandy. Not sure much has changed tonight tho. not sure the GFS is a total fail...sometimes the GFS moves towards a solution but does it in a less direct way. 0z was a minor step back from 18 but a move west over the 12z run. Besides..if you look at the H5 and H7 it would support the deform band getting further west I think they the liquid output suggests. I am not sure given the exact track of the GFS that precip wouldnt be more significant in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Have the models adjusted due to daylight savings? The earlier sunset could lead to better snow accumulations overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GGEM is much colder Not to mention we know how warm the GGEM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looking at 0z last night Sent from my iPad HD Looks east to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 UKMET way out to sea ahead of time mitch accidentally had it, but the SLP placement is wayyy off judging by the h5 set-up in my opinion... should go from off SC coast to off VA similar to the GGEM track if it followed the heights but I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Haven't looked at any models since Sandy, until this evening. I'm not too impressed with what I'm seeing so far. Especially in regards to any precipitation in western VA. I can see you northern Virginianers maybe getting lucky enough to see some flakes if things play out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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