Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Seems like a decidedly un-weenie call. It's not bad.. sort of what you'd expect from the "best" solution when factoring in climo + a little luck. Not sure why he's making a call at this pt tho.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's not bad.. sort of what you'd expect from the "best" solution when factoring in climo + a little luck. Not sure why he's making a call at this pt tho.... Same reason DT did this morning already, ATTENTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's not bad.. sort of what you'd expect from the "best" solution when factoring in climo + a little luck. Not sure why he's making a call at this pt tho.... Pretty much my thought as well. some of these guys like to make it a competition so they can fluff their feather if they are actually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's not bad.. sort of what you'd expect from the "best" solution when factoring in climo + a little luck. Not sure why he's making a call at this pt tho.... I thought the same thing about the forecast but also don't think you make any call this early except to say there is a chance of precipitation in the long range look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's not bad.. sort of what you'd expect from the "best" solution when factoring in climo + a little luck. Not sure why he's making a call at this pt tho.... I know he says it's his "first call," but is it really a call if there's no actual snowfall ranges (aside from his "close to one inch")? Looks more like a "general idea of how he expects precip types to break down" than a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nah, hold serve. It's better to have one of you right than a chance at both being wrong. Unless you both are calling for snow. Then it's a better in the risk/reward dept. Well I did say "some" which around me could be non-accumulating of course. But for whatever reason I'm not ready to close the door on accumulation even imby. It's a solidly cold preceding air mass -- perhaps laying the groundwork for a surprise. Even the Euro ens mean has been giving us accum outside elevation.. tho 12z trended downward and is much lighter than the op. Euro op is certainly a solution I would not bet on until I see it a few more times and with support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Allan going for broke: @RaleighWx: Va into new England, although NYC/Phill/Boston spared big accumulations. 4-8 inches for DC Wed night. GFS shows snow in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I know he says it's his "first call," but is it really a call if there's no actual snowfall ranges (aside from his "close to one inch")? Looks more like a "general idea of how he expects precip types to break down" than a call. Yeah, that's true. I mean just interpreting the models I'd go with something like that to start as an idea. Though it could also be completely wrong if things don't trend west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Allan going for broke: @RaleighWx: Va into new England, although NYC/Phill/Boston spared big accumulations. 4-8 inches for DC Wed night. GFS shows snow in New England. ...that's a continuation of his previous tweet: @RaleighWx Nor'easter to bring wind, strong winds, more beach erosion to Northeast Wednesday-Friday. Euro shows band of 4-8 inches from central/eastern He's just reading off what the Euro says... not making a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, that's true. I mean just interpreting the models I'd go with something like that to start as an idea. Though it could also be completely wrong if things don't trend west a bit. My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf084.html 7 of 12 18z gfs ens individuals show sub 980 with 1 being 960's, and 4 are low to mid 980's.... very strong signal for a DEEP system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ...that's a continuation of his previous tweet: @RaleighWx Nor'easter to bring wind, strong winds, more beach erosion to Northeast Wednesday-Friday. Euro shows band of 4-8 inches from central/eastern He's just reading off what the Euro says... not making a forecast. Oh ok my mistake , i thought that was a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 This is from Justin Berk's FB post: "The Nor'Easter- My FIRST call: It is for Wed-Thu (grey zone in key should read Thu am) To this point, I have shared some computer models with my interpretation. I want to let you know that forecasting the weather comes in two parts. First in the long range is seeing the storm form. Then within 3 days, is trying to figure out exactly what that storm will do. There will be some adjustment as we get closer, and I NEVER give snow amounts more than 2 1/2 days away. Monday evening I will 'go there'." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREF mean is way offshore. I haven't looked at it much yet. I love it but think it suffers some end of run loss like the NAM (or any other model I suppose) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Whether it happens or not....I'm loving looking at those euro snow maps...getting in the mood for winter is a fine feeling for me...I know there will be plenty of disappointment as there always is around here during winter...I still get excited though as we get closer...I love me some winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREF mean is way offshore. I haven't looked at it much yet. I love it but think it suffers some end of run loss like the NAM (or any other model I suppose) Where are you getting the SREF and has it been removed from NCEP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 SREF mean is way offshore. I haven't looked at it much yet. I love it but think it suffers some end of run loss like the NAM (or any other model I suppose) The SREFs really can struggle beyond 60hrs. Who knows it might be right, but I don't trust it beyond that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The SREFs really can struggle beyond 60hrs. Who knows it might be right, but I don't trust it beyond that timeframe. True, and these 21z SREF's don't have the new balloon data until the 03z runs. Look at what models comprise the SREF's to begin with, they are newly improved, but still not the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Where are you getting the SREF and has it been removed from NCEP? Was wondering this as well, ty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Where are you getting the SREF and has it been removed from NCEP? not sure whats up with ncep but you can get it on spc too http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 not sure whats up with ncep but you can get it on spc too http://www.spc.noaa..../sref/index.php Sorry to clutter the thread, it seems in the link you sent the latest sref (21z) is not out yet, were you referring to that when you said the mean was offshore? Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well I did say "some" which around me could be non-accumulating of course. But for whatever reason I'm not ready to close the door on accumulation even imby. It's a solidly cold preceding air mass -- perhaps laying the groundwork for a surprise. Even the Euro ens mean has been giving us accum outside elevation.. tho 12z trended downward and is much lighter than the op. Euro op is certainly a solution I would not bet on until I see it a few more times and with support. I was just poking a little fun at the whole thing. I'm unusually in the middle on this one. I'm not discounting or buying in. It's actually making it kinda easy with each model run. There clearly seems to be a chance here. And its an unlikely time of year for a "chance". Maybe it's a new trend? Oct snow last year was beyond unlikely. If the euro holds tomorrow night and other guidance comes in line then I guess I'm forced to let weenieness take over. For now i'll continue to enjoy the pro's posts and not worry one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 True, and these 21z SREF's don't have the new balloon data until the 03z runs. Look at what models comprise the SREF's to begin with, they are newly improved, but still not the best. The whole new data thing really doesn't apply. We've talked about that before. The spread in the SREFs is what makes them questionable beyond 60hrs, but admittedly we have not seen how the improved SREFs handle these types of lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 00Z NAM looks OTS again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sorry to clutter the thread, it seems in the link you sent the latest sref (21z) is not out yet, were you referring to that when you said the mean was offshore? Just curious. i guess it was 15z.. miscalculated time change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 00Z NAM looks OTS again looks like it should be closer in than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 looks like it should be closer in than last run yeah was just about to say that I may have spoken too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 looks like it should be closer in than last run Yeah, but still looks like a goner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah, but still looks like a goner eh.. not sure i care what the nam shows right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 eh.. not sure i care what the nam shows right now I don't think anyone should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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