CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. I think more than not solutions that look like these tend to cool at the surface rather than warm closing in. But the overall setup at the sfc isn't necessarily perfectly ideal with high location and whatnot. We just pray to get blitzed for now in the DC/Balt area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18Z GFS yesterday was west as well only to have 0Z go back east. Interesting as usually 18Z runs are mostly SE. Hopefully 0Z fully comes around and we can stop guessing. Do you have any non-anecdotal data to support this? I wouldn't worry about temps too much yet. It's close enough that a crushing band will do it. This. We still have a couple of days to hammer out the details WRT low-level temps. I'm thinking BL temps will be marginal (just above freezing), but who knows if that will be enough to keep everything that falls as snow from sticking at this time. At this range, you could probably still take a couple of degrees off the 2m temps on the Euro Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Do you have any non-anecdotal data to support this? We mention this like all the time on here. Not sure where i'd find info on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This. We still have a couple of days to hammer out the details WRT low-level temps. I'm thinking BL temps will be marginal (just above freezing), but who knows if that will be enough to keep everything that falls as snow from sticking at this time. At this range, you could probably still take a couple of degrees off the 2m temps on the Euro Op. I'm leaning more toward us getting at least some snow despite the nagging climo issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. That's exactly what the 12z Euro does. I looked it here at school (we have accuwx pro) and the everything from 700mb down bulbs out at -4°C. So even the higher elevations are only going to get very measly ratios. The Wet Bulb Zero is at 950mb and the Surface is at 33 or 34°F. Very much like the October storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We mention this like all the time on here. Not sure where i'd find info on it though. We do? Who's "we"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We do? Who's "we"? It was def the running joke in 09-10 before the north trends commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We do? Who's "we"? Weenies looking at 18z models that show the storm too far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Weenies looking at 18z models that show the storm too far SE 18z throw it out .. well unless it's better than 12z b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/220/ Jeff haby has a page on this. Basically the latent heat of melting or freezing stablize the temp near 32. Temps may initially be in the low 40s but there is a good Evaporational/Sublimational cooling setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z throw it out .. well unless it's better than 12z b Exactly we always joke about 18Z. I mean who uses 18Z to make a forecast anyways. Never seen in NWS discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Exactly we always joke about 18Z. I mean who uses 18Z to make a forecast anyways. Never seen in NWS discussion. If someone has stats at the ready, prepare for them to be thrown at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If someone has stats at the ready, prepare for them to be thrown at you. I'll be ready to duck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 one thing for sure.. if i saw november 87 coming together i wouldnt believe it would happen. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us1111.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 one thing for sure.. if i saw november 87 coming together i wouldnt believe it would happen. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1987/us1111.php Looked very marginal as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Exactly we always joke about 18Z. I mean who uses 18Z to make a forecast anyways. Never seen in NWS discussion. Give it a rest dude. If 18z showed Jan 96 repeat then you would be all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Statistically 12z had no advantage in forecasting over the 18z etc for 00z.6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Who wouldn't be all over the 96 setup on the 18z. You just don't forecast off of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Give it a rest dude. If 18z showed Jan 96 repeat then you would be all over it. Ya right. lol. I don't base a forecast off of one run. It would be nice to look at but, believable no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lets minimize general banter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lets minimize general banter.. I have a feeling there will be alot of 5 posting this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm leaning more toward us getting at least some snow despite the nagging climo issue. I'm leaning the opposite though the one way it could happen would be if the euro from today was perfect. At least the 18Z shifted west some but it did that yesterday too. I think we see precipitation as the 18Z gfs now has some and the euro ens mean hits us pretty well but I'd like to have a better idea of the sfc temps on the euro then you get from the underground site before getting stoked about seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm leaning the opposite though the one way it could happen would be if the euro from today was perfect. At least the 18Z shifted west some but it did that yesterday too. I think we see precipitation as the 18Z gfs now has some and the euro ens mean hits us pretty well but I'd like to have a better idea of the sfc temps on the euro then you get from the underground site before getting stoked about seeing snow. The 18z gfs snow algorithms spit out accumulation around here tho I'm a little skeptical of that given rates plus low level temps. But maybe I should fix my lean if you lean the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Justin Berks thoughts on the storm Have fun weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The 18z gfs snow algorithms spit out accumulation around here tho I'm a little skeptical of that given rates plus low level temps. But maybe I should fix my lean if you lean the other way. I looked at the sounding for the GFS but they would change if there was heavier precip. If the euro is right, there is a chance but there is still plenty that can go wrong. The 15Z Sref members that had heavy precip in dc had no snow, in fact no members had snow at dca or bwi. I hope the euro holds serve again tonight as I'll write something tomorrow about the threat as even though I view the probability of snow, especially accumulating snow as low, it's not non-existent. Heck, that's why I'm looking at teh models this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Justin Berks thoughts on the storm Have fun weenies Seems like a decidedly un-weenie call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Justin Berks thoughts on the storm Have fun weenies Time to get the bread, milk and toilet paper if he is only calling for that. That basically guarantees we get at least a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 But maybe I should fix my lean if you lean the other way. Nah, hold serve. It's better to have one of you right than a chance at both being wrong. Unless you both are calling for snow. Then it's a better in the risk/reward dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 http://www.theweathe.../habyhints/220/ Jeff haby has a page on this. Basically the latent heat of melting or freezing stablize the temp near 32. Temps may initially be in the low 40s but there is a good Evaporational/Sublimational cooling setup. Melting is something not many talk about, but it is a big reason why marginal setups love to hang near 32-32.5F Maybe if the euro holds serve into tomorrow, we can start to hit the details harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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