ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Any good reads on the 1987 event? Live in Philly but one snowfall map I saw is crazy. How could you go from a 40 degree partly cloudy forecast to a foot of snow? lol. If you scroll down to page 12 on this PDF, there is a good writeup on the Vet Day 1987 storm. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281995%29010%3C0005%3AWWFTTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If you scroll down to page 12 on this PDF, there is a good writeup on the Vet Day 1987 storm. http://journals.amet...WWFTTE>2.0.CO;2 ty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm keying in on the 18Z NAM actually, the 5H map at 42 hrs. looks "inerestin"" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm keying in on the 18Z NAM actually, the 5H map at 42 hrs. looks "inerestin"" Looks like a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm keying in on the 18Z NAM actually, the 5H map at 42 hrs. looks "inerestin"" OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Whatever the NAM does with the s/w and trough orientation of it just doesn't go together, the low moves erratically... Yet the axis initially would favor it running up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM actually closes off the 5H Low at 45 hrs in GA, but opens it back up at 48 hrs only to go ots obviously NAM is far from the model of choice at this point but it feels good to have a reason to look at the model runs every 6 hours again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 1953 had a big storm here as well. So there is precedent for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 1953 had a big storm here as well. So there is precedent for this time of year. Do you have good 3m temp forecasts from the euro? Looks to me like the temps are mid 30 which might not matter with really heavy precipitation but...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's so nice having the models come out an hour earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Do you have good 3m temp forecasts from the euro? Looks to me like the temps are mid 30 which might not matter with really heavy precipitation but...... Wes, you gonna do a CWG update tomorrow on this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's so nice having the models come out an hour earlier Ha, I was thinking the same thing. Those pre-Sandy Euro 0z runs were a bit rough staying up so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Just for the hell of it the JMA is similar to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wes, you gonna do a CWG update tomorrow on this storm? If the models stay on course, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z won't be OTS this run that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z won't be OTS this run that's for sure. Good track and good precip, funky 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 According to the GFS, Wes will be writing. Further west for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18Z GFS yesterday was west as well only to have 0Z go back east. Interesting as usually 18Z runs are mostly SE. Hopefully 0Z fully comes around and we can stop guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Good track and good precip, funky 850s Is "funky" the new term for "way too warm for snow"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is "funky" the new term for "way too warm for snow"? No, bubbles of below 0, clearly dynamic cooling driven depending on intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 According to the GFS, Wes will be writing. Further west for sure. Wes's title. "Models show boring, windy, and cold rainstorm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others. Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others. Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here. Within the next couple of Euro runs we'll get the Ian play-by-play where he says the run is very similar but is warmer at the surface and 850. That's when it's officially over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I wouldn't worry about temps too much yet. It's close enough that a crushing band will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others. Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here. Ukie looked to be snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Within the next couple of Euro runs we'll get the Ian play-by-play where he says the run is very similar but is warmer at the surface and 850. That's when it's officially over. Very fine line for sure. Euro may be showing sub freezing 850's but not by much. 1-2 degrees isn't much of an insurance policy and not a big error either (assuming the euro is wrong). If it still showing a snow solution with tomorrow night's run and other guidance trends colder then I guess it really could happen but I'm loaded with doubt on this one. If I lived on Westminster I would prob be a bit more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ukie looked to be snow as well I thought that was a really small guitar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is "funky" the new term for "way too warm for snow"? Got any code words for way too dry to snow? I have a feeling I'll be needing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12Z Euro on Wunderground 2m temp maps has the area east of the mtns (and even mtn areas) between 0-4C, so it's hard to tell precisely what the model shows since that is quite a range. However, the areas of accumulating snow correspond to the high qpf so as Ian said, forget it if it's not coming down hard verbatim this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wes's title. "Models show boring, windy, and cold rainstorm" Sounds like last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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