Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I remain cautiously bullish. I can't buy the Euro yet.. maybe in another 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I remain cautiously bullish. I can't buy the Euro yet.. maybe in another 2 runs. Unless the other models come on full force tonight. Then ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I can see this going 200 miles either way until gthe northern stream gets onshore. It is a January 25th 2000 like setup, except it's mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 When would this storm start? Travel plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 lol snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I leave for FL Tuesday. I care not for this storm. If we get accum, while I'm gone, I'm not coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 lol this is a huge snowstorm taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro still worlds different from Gfs. whew, Thanks for the info, I was concerned about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 whew, Thanks for the info, I was concerned about that. You damn well should be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Thank god for '87 so we know this can be done lol seems like you guys put yourselves through the expectations grinder by late October every year based on this one event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 lol seems like you guys put yourselves through the expectations grinder by late October every year based on this one event I'm not expecting a repeat by any means.... I just think without it people would be saying its impossible and discount any threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Did Ray's NJ Freeways site go under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Surface is colder too, of course the NE guys are trying to clown on us Yeah that's exactly what we were doing. I was saying the weenie maps are wrong because they gave ORH 6-8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If the euro is right you would at least get a few inches conservatively. I can't comment much as I am on the phone, but it's interesting. However if the GFS and Euro compromise, then the good QPF is east. The low levels are mild so I think DC people need to keep that in mind, but wild things can happen in comma heads. There is plenty of time to shift things around one way or another. Worth watching but surface temps are still above freezing on the progs but if it precips hard enough in the deformation zone, we could see snow. I think it's still a long shot for any accumulations but dreamers can remember 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Did Ray's NJ Freeways site go under? It's now located at http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Worth watching but surface temps are still above freezing on the progs but if it precips hard enough in the deformation zone, we could see snow. I think it's still a long shot for any accumulations but dreamers can remember 1987 Yeah I mean it's a good spot to be in, just as the low tucks in a bit closer to the coast, the lift goes nuts. We'll just have to see how this evolves over the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's now located at http://www.raymondcm...jr.com/weather/ Thanks! Much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah that's exactly what we were doing. I was saying the weenie maps are wrong because they gave ORH 6-8" of snow. Is CT Blizz convinced this storm will give him over a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is CT Blizz convinced this storm will give him over a foot? Not yet. He is saying 4-8" at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Any good reads on the 1987 event? Live in Philly but one snowfall map I saw is crazy. How could you go from a 40 degree partly cloudy forecast to a foot of snow? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro show any wraparound or bay effect for Hampton roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Just FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Any good reads on the 1987 event? Live in Philly but one snowfall map I saw is crazy. How could you go from a 40 degree partly cloudy forecast to a foot of snow? lol. If you scroll down to page 12 on this PDF, there is a good writeup on the Vet Day 1987 storm. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281995%29010%3C0005%3AWWFTTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If you scroll down to page 12 on this PDF, there is a good writeup on the Vet Day 1987 storm. http://journals.amet...WWFTTE>2.0.CO;2 ty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm keying in on the 18Z NAM actually, the 5H map at 42 hrs. looks "inerestin"" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm keying in on the 18Z NAM actually, the 5H map at 42 hrs. looks "inerestin"" Looks like a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I'm keying in on the 18Z NAM actually, the 5H map at 42 hrs. looks "inerestin"" OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Whatever the NAM does with the s/w and trough orientation of it just doesn't go together, the low moves erratically... Yet the axis initially would favor it running up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM actually closes off the 5H Low at 45 hrs in GA, but opens it back up at 48 hrs only to go ots obviously NAM is far from the model of choice at this point but it feels good to have a reason to look at the model runs every 6 hours again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 1953 had a big storm here as well. So there is precedent for this time of year. Do you have good 3m temp forecasts from the euro? Looks to me like the temps are mid 30 which might not matter with really heavy precipitation but...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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