Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's gonna be one of those tight gradient storm which are always worrisome. The 09Z sref guidance was all over the place in terms of QP suggesting that this is a situation where the initial conditions are much more important than for the sandy forecast at the same time range. For those looking for a deterministic forecast right now, good luck. yeah that's a big spread there. not an easy forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Everyone loves the euro but it is snow happy. Did we get that 2 feet of snow in the coastal plain it had a week out from Sandy? Part of me is glad we are tracking storms this early, makes for a long winter. That's good because winter already seems short. But another part of me wishes it was mid 60's until about Thanksgiving. Anyway, if we get any snow from this it's a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is warm though, yikes The GGEM is always warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 yeah that's a big spread there. not an easy forecast for sure. None are showing snow despite the qp spreads suggesting a diversity of storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 UK looks much colder than GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 None are showing snow despite the qp spreads suggesting a diversity of storm tracks. I think the EURO is the only one showing snow right now for us... if we see any precip it will likely be rain, but to see a few flakes would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The GGEM is always warm. True considering the 850 line is east of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 UK looks much colder than GGEM. sure is colder! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You can't just focus on the 850 line.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You can't just focus on the 850 line.... We didn't say it looked like snow, it just looked colder :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You can't just focus on the 850 line.... Of course but, we all know the GGEM precip type maps are always pretty warm. I am sure someone on the NW side would be getting some snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You can't just focus on the 850 line.... Even the euro has the 3m temp above freezing making it look like mid 30s on the crappy wundermaps map. western suburbs and west of Baltimore may be 34 wit the freezing line up near the PA/MD border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Even the euro has the 3m temp above freezing making it look like mid 30s on the crappy wundermaps map. western suburbs and west of Baltimore may be 34 wit the freezing line up near the PA/MD border. It probably would be rate-dependent... light stuff would be rain and heavy stuff wet snow if the EURO was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It probably would be rate-dependent... light stuff would be rain and heavy stuff wet snow if the EURO was right I love it when you take Wes to weather school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I love it when you take Wes to weather school. I try my best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Where is the warm air aloft? Out of curiosity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We aren't getting snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Still a lot of disagreement. We need the Northern stream to dig more and faster if DCA is going to get rain. If it's going to snow DCA needs an earthquake to lift it up 2000ft in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Still a lot of disagreement. We need the Northern stream to dig more and faster if DCA is going to get rain. If it's going to snow DCA needs an earthquake to lift it up 2000ft in elevation. Best post of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro looks much colder for you guys @ 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro looks interesting. Looks colder and has a 981 low off of S Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro's a big hit across the whole area. Everyone 4-8" in the DC/Balt region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro still worlds different from Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Just NE of HGR in S PA 8-12, maybe even a 12"+ spot.. it's tiny hard to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Way colder run wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro's a big hit across the whole area. Everyone 4-8" in the DC/Balt region. Yeah very interesting for you guys. I'm up in Philly rooting for you all. It seems the low bombs at the right time, its colder in Southern Del than it is in Philly & SNE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Surface is colder too, of course the NE guys are trying to clown on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Surface is colder too, of course the NE guys are trying to clown on us I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Just NE of HGR in S PA 8-12, maybe even a 12"+ spot.. it's tiny hard to tell Speak sweet nothing's in my ear. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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