mdsnowlover Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 when does the second shortwave come onshore from the pacific?? It is a phasing situation, correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's Sunday lol 00z Sunday is Saturday in DC Looks like breezy, cold rain. Just what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Storm crawls up the coast; precip lasts for close to 15 hours. Blocking must be pretty strong. Maybe 6-9 hours of the white stuff per Wunderland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Agree if it looks similar to 12z I am going with that. That would be like 7 runs of the same solution. It's not 7 runs of the same solution. Each one is ticking slightly east of its previous. Two days ago, it had me in a foot of snow. There's also several models with the storm pretty far out to sea for some of us. You can LOL me all you want, but I suspect that your primary reason for going with the Euro is that it still gives you some snow, but I'll stick with what I said, you have to lean more east. For some in our region, the Mid-Atlantic, that's a good thing. For some of us, it's not. For your region, Pennsylvania, I have no clue because I'm not interested. I hope that you end up correct. I'd like to see it snow myself. But I think I'll hold off on putting that snowplow blade on my mower. I sure would like to see some other models throw some precip back my way. I keep waiting, but it's not happening. At least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Euro Ensemble mean (which probably matter more than the Operationals at this point) came in further WEST on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run (which actually increased our precip but kept the 850 0C line in the same spot). 06z GFS Ensemble mean is about where the 12z Euro Ensemble was. Ensembles FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Like most know BL temps will be an issue. Euro is best shot if it is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Like most know BL temps will be an issue. Euro is best shot if it is right Honestly for us i think most reasonable expectation would be to see flakes falling mixing with rain but enough snow to tell it is snowing...accumulations if any would be of course for the nose bleed seats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Euro Ensemble mean (which probably matter more than the Operationals at this point) came in further WEST on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run (which actually increased our precip but kept the 850 0C line in the same spot). 06z GFS Ensemble mean is about where the 12z Euro Ensemble was. Ensembles FTW. I like the sound of that. Isn't timing an issue here as well. Wouldn't slower argue for further west vs. a faster solution? Or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Euro Ensemble mean (which probably matter more than the Operationals at this point) came in further WEST on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run (which actually increased our precip but kept the 850 0C line in the same spot). 06z GFS Ensemble mean is about where the 12z Euro Ensemble was. Ensembles FTW. It looks the the euro ens mean 500 closes of a low far enough south to put us in the deformation zone though I don't have any precip output from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM seems to be colder on this latest run. Not sure of temps for Jersey but seems to get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice sprinkles from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z NAM and GFS quick peek shows littl to no QPF for us as storm is far enough east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 And just like that Goofus comes in with way warmer 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The NAM at this range is lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You guys realize that the NAMs track would probably be ideal for your location. The 500mb at 84 hours clearly shows that the low would probably bomb and travel WNW as the low is being pulled inland. Would probably set a deform zone over your area IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice sprinkles from the gfs Most important run of the Euro (so far this "winter season") coming up? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Anyone have Euro Ensemble QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The Euro Ensemble mean (which probably matter more than the Operationals at this point) came in further WEST on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run (which actually increased our precip but kept the 850 0C line in the same spot). 06z GFS Ensemble mean is about where the 12z Euro Ensemble was. Ensembles FTW. except last winter when they were pretty much useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Anyone have Euro Ensemble QPF? 1"+ 95 and east generally. .75" back to frederick/leesburg then almost straight south. .5" about 30 miles west of that. it's drier than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 1"+ 95 and east generally. .75" back to frederick/leesburg then almost straight south. .5" about 30 miles west of that. it's drier than the op. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 my concern with the euro pulling a "euro bust" has grown just since it has shifted east recent runs. tho most of the time the gfs is about where we want it however cliche that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Thanks! you're in like the .25-.50 area. i need to learn my geography of the region better. i've finally almost gotten the dc area down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 my concern with the euro pulling a "euro bust" has grown just since it has shifted east recent runs. tho most of the time the gfs is about where we want it however cliche that is. It's gonna be one of those tight gradient storm which are always worrisome. The 09Z sref guidance was all over the place in terms of QP suggesting that this is a situation where the initial conditions are much more important than for the sandy forecast at the same time range. For those looking for a deterministic forecast right now, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 you're in like the .25-.50 area. i need to learn my geography of the region better. i've finally almost gotten the dc area down. Maybe a 1/2" of snow in early November? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is way west. lol. Models FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Much different than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is warm though, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is way west. lol. Models FTL. If we post about each one enough it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 If we post about each one enough it will snow Sometime in the next 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is warm though, yikes Everyone loves the euro but it is snow happy. Did we get that 2 feet of snow in the coastal plain it had a week out from Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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