Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Dry air at the low levels will be key, if there is heavy snow is from high based clouds and low levels are dry we can drop temps down from low 40s to low 30s fast. But then again, asking for 1" for DC is asking too much, even in the dead of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Yeah I agree. It's just so early we need all the help we can get at least around me. Yea, a couple more weeks would make this an easier proposition. I am torn...most of my family lives on the Jersey shore, and other then some flooding we got lucky with Sandy compared to others but another storm right now is the last thing they need. Part of me really does want snow, but the more rational part knows it would be better for this to go OTS or cut way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 FYI DC got rocked on Nov 11, 1987 so it *can* happen. My birthday...and what a birthday present this would be! And a week before that my family and I were visiting from North Carolina and there was a cold rain storm with temps in the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 sweet mother of automated November forecasts!.... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.20319480000001&lon=-76.67592200000001&site=all&smap=1&searchresult=LINTHICUM%20HEIGHTS%2C%20MD%2021090%2C%20USA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Most of the precip on the Euro falls from 00utc-12utc Thursday . Thats 7pm to 7am, which is perfect. Certainly the euro has better timing though 7PM this time of year still isn't perfect. Later during the night into early morning would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 All I have to say is GOARW! It always shows my weenie fantasy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The s/w we are watching is the one down in S GA/N FL at 69 and the one in NE IA correct? (00z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GFS is a total whiff. Model waffles more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 979mb at 108 south of Nantucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 That GFS solution will hold true. Total whiff. Oh well we just recieved plenty of rain from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 No closer to anything definite I guess. I'd think you'd have to lean offshore at this point, at least for us. I guess time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 No closer to anything definite I guess. I'd think you'd have to lean offshore at this point, at least for us. I guess time will tell. Because of the Gfs? No lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ukmet has 983 not too far off the coast. Wish precip map went beyond 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ukmet has 983 not too far off the coast. Wish precip map went beyond 72hrs Prob cold rain... dunno if that 1031 H would really do much being way up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 After the handling of Sandy, I'm placing my bets on the Euro being better at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 After the handling of Sandy, I'm placing my bets on the Euro being better at this range. Agree if it looks similar to 12z I am going with that. That would be like 7 runs of the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is almost identical to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NRN stream is still out in the pacific. UKMET has it much further south than the GFS @ 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 euro is a nice hit again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice hit as in what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice hit as in what? as in it gives DC a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 euro is further east, but colder and still plenty wet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 euro is further east, but colder and still plenty wet.... Doesn't really look east to me. Maybe 25 miles but that is miniscule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Doesn't really look east to me. Maybe 25 miles but that is miniscule. maybe you're right...I didn't look that hard since it is saturday and the storm isnt until wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 euro is further east, but colder and still plenty wet.... 850 to surface is still very marginal.. like +1 or +2 °C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 maybe you're right...I didn't look that hard since it is saturday and the storm isnt until wednesday It's Sunday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Not that the 00Z NAM means much at that time range but the 500's would probably suggest a hit Cap Cod and north bypassing some of the harder hit areas from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 O6z gfs pretty much bypasses the area except for the eastern shore. Maybe some token flakes especially in the NE MD local. Does get the low down to 978 off the cape with a decent snowfall (Foot+) in the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro is showing snow in DC at 99 hours then a nice deform zone just West of there at 102-108....it's definitely East of previous runs as far as snow zones go but as Matt said still a nice hit for the area all things considered. BL temps still warm and 850's are ok but not frigid...gonna guess if it does snow it will basically be white rain but still pretty exciting to see this type of solution...meaning a low forming at that point and riding the coast... at any point in the year but especially as we head towards the winter months. Keep em coming Mr. Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 And just eyeballing it looks like at 84 hours the 06z gfs has the low about 200 miles due East of Ocean city and 0z euro has it about 150 miles or so due East of OC around hour 105 so the Euro is slower for sure than the GFS. Of course I'm probably wrong but I'm gonna go ahead and run with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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