Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 8:42 PM, clskinsfan said: I dont see how they can phase in time for NOVA. NOVA is out of totally. Not to surprised to be honest. This is a Harford county, MD (Bel Air) and North to Philly and East to Dover, DE special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM is pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:15 PM, usedtobe said: The latest CWG article. http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak Seems reasonable and good stuff Wes and CWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:18 PM, Aviationdave said: NOVA is out of totally. Not to surprised to be honest. This is a Harford county, MD (Bel Air) and North to Philly and East to Dover, DE special. Goes back to what I said about being in the "bullseye" 6 days out. Never verifies. Philly Looks to get a nice hit out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS is pretty meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well, for me at least. It's almost the same as 12z really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:51 PM, Ian said: GFS is pretty meh. .1-.15 QPF total... I think most of it would be slushy snow that wouldnt accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:52 PM, yoda said: .1-.15 QPF total... I think most of it would be slushy snow that wouldnt accumulate .5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:53 PM, ddweatherman said: .5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports. That would be false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:53 PM, ddweatherman said: .5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports. No it doesnt. It barely is in MD http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F06%2F2012+18UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:56 PM, yoda said: No it doesnt. It barely is in MD http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M It is pretty close to Baltimore. probably .4-.45". Pretty much a .05-.10" increase all around from 12Z. Baby steps. 18Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 9:53 PM, ddweatherman said: .5 gets west of the bay according to Easternuswx, im out right now so just getting reports. Looks like the .2-.5 contour is through BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 10:02 PM, sbos_wx said: Looks like the .2-.5 contour is through BWI The .25 does... .5 isn't in MD at all besides extreme NE MD near PA border and MD/DE border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well, can't say tracking this hasn't been interesting. Crazy gradient. Much of a push either way = dramaticallydifferent results. That combined with complications of hit or miss banding, BL warmth questions, makes for a complicated forecast. Has bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 10:09 PM, yoda said: The .25 does... .5 isn't in MD at all besides extreme NE MD near PA border and MD/DE border Talking about the color contour. I know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 One thing to keep an eye on is the precip down in NC. If that keep sliding more up the coast then off shore in the next 6hrs we got a better shot at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 10:15 PM, EasternUSWX said: One thing to keep an eye on is the precip down in NC. If that keep sliding more up the coast then off shore in the next 6hrs we got a better shot at this. Hallucinations will ensue. Don't kill yourself over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 10:17 PM, sbos_wx said: Hallucinations will ensue. Don't kill yourself over it. Both the HI RES local lwx models keep the precip a bit more on shore and as a result shows a decent hit. This model only goes out to 24hrs but the good returns are already pushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 18Z GFS ENS were a bit west if it matter, maybe. .25" into DC, .5" near baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 11:29 PM, EasternUSWX said: 18Z GFS ENS were a bit west if it matter, maybe. .25" into DC, .5" near baltimore. At this time range don't post a coarse resolution ensemble mean as it is going to smear the precip on each member. Use the sref as it has higher resolution than the gefs but even then at this time range, I'd start using the high resolution models as my ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 11:38 PM, usedtobe said: At this time range don't post a coarse resolution ensemble mean as it is going to smear the precip on each member. Use the sref as it has higher resolution than the gefs but even then at this time range, I'd start using the high resolution models as my ensembles. Ya I have looked at some of them and they are even more west than this, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Updated LWX snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 11:58 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: Updated LWX snow map I wonder what made them up it so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Isn't the LWX snow map some sort of automated output? I never even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 On 11/7/2012 at 12:03 AM, MillzPirate said: I wonder what made them up it so quickly? I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 On 11/7/2012 at 12:04 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Their contours make me think it is computer generated but i'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 On 11/7/2012 at 12:04 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Man made. Simple sum of LWX snow grids. Visual depiction of what is in Point n' Click forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 On 11/7/2012 at 12:04 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Gotta love that cutoff for us in the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'll start the radar hallucinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 the sky looked wintry today...radar looks interesting...i'll track it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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