mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:35 PM, MillzPirate said: Looks like GFS is a bit east of 6z later panels may not be bad per 7H RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:28 PM, Ian said: Double bust. Down with Wes! Well, the 09Z srefs does not yet think it is over so who knows. Notre it does have a couple members west of the mean, far enough west to produce heavy precip over DC. At this time range, I'd probably lean more towards the regular global models as my leading ensemble group and would lean more towards whatever the euro and gfs do than the nam, but the srefs say don't give up yet the Bob Chill and Mapgirl contingent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:39 PM, mitchnick said: later panels may not be bad per 7H RH just missed, but there's still some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:35 PM, MillzPirate said: Looks like GFS is a bit east of 6z Looks like identical to 6z GFS, the precip shield is a smidge different, but all in all, fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:40 PM, packbacker said: Looks like identical to 6z GFS, the precip shield is a smidge different, but all in all, fairly similar. yeah, it was just a hair, maybe 5-10 miles, just a wobble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Still plenty of time for an expansion of the precip to the NW. The storm is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Is there a skill set with the RGEM? Like how it compares to GFS and NAM and SREFs within 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Peeking at the GFS, it looks like this thing bombs just a bit late. Whether deepening a few hours earlier would make a big difference in track, I don't really know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:44 PM, yoda said: Is there a skill set with the RGEM? Like how it compares to GFS and NAM and SREFs within 48 hrs? I've heard it had comparable scores to the NAM.... I think Allan in the southeast thread mentioned it last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:46 PM, mattie g said: Peeking at the GFS, it looks like this thing bombs just a bit late. Whether deepening a few hours earlier would make a big difference in track, I don't really know. It might mean a more expansive precip field if it bombs earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like maybe .1-.15" for DCA and .2" for BWI on the GFS. Clown maps have it as snow FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:44 PM, yoda said: Is there a skill set with the RGEM? Like how it compares to GFS and NAM and SREFs within 48 hrs? That's a good question, one that I can't answer. I've never given it as much weight as the other models but that may be a personal bias more than it being less skillful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:47 PM, WxUSAF said: Looks like maybe .1-.15" for DCA and .2" for BWI on the GFS. Clown maps have it as snow FWIW. Yup. 1" for DCA. 2-3" for BWI (tough to tell with gradient) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:47 PM, WxUSAF said: Looks like maybe .1-.15" for DCA and .2" for BWI on the GFS. Clown maps have it as snow FWIW. that's more than what fell all of last year lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:49 PM, mitchnick said: that's more than what fell all of last year lol I had 3.2" last year thank you very much! I'd love to jump start this year's total with something comparable to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Tough forecast at BWI and DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:48 PM, am19psu said: Yup. 1" for DCA. 2-3" for BWI (tough to tell with gradient) You'd have to get banding and be in a zone of heavier precip to get that much accumulation. Surface temps above freezing with light precip won't accumulate. Gotta get enough melting to cool the surface sufficiently to get snow to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 IIRC- this is the time to weight the nam over the gfs on the finer details right? Not saying the GFS is wrong. Just that if you have to hedge inside of 48 hours the odds favor the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 3:59 PM, Bob Chill said: IIRC- this is the time to weight the nam over the gfs on the finer details right? Not saying the GFS is wrong. Just that if you have to hedge inside of 48 hours the odds favor the nam. Not true, Nam loses to the gfs and the sref ens mean qpf for .25 and .50 thresholds at 36 hrs and to the euro and gfs at 48 hrs. It even loses at 24 hrs. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_36h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_48h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/rgnscr/m3_24h_nec.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Ah, thanks Wes. Your post will be quote worthy in the future. I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 4:05 PM, usedtobe said: Not true, Nam loses to the gfs and the sref ens mean qpf for .25 and .50 thresholds at 36 hrs and to the euro and gfs at 48 hrs. It even loses at 24 hrs. http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_36h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_48h_nec.gif http://www.hpc.ncep..../m3_24h_nec.gif That just seems like a nice way of saying that the NAM sucks, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 4:06 PM, Bob Chill said: Ah, thanks Wes. Your post will be quote worthy in the future. I stand corrected. Of course that doesn't mean the nam will be more wrong this time though I'd still bet on the gfs and euro solutions. The tight gradient does make this storm worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GGEM way west, like Euro was 2 days ago. Can't post from my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 4:09 PM, mattie g said: That just seems like a nice way of saying that the NAM sucks, Wes. Not always, it it has a good surface low position in winter it will have the better temp profiles. The trouble is making generalizations about models. The NAM is also better at getting a feel for lakes effect snows. ost models have strengths and weaknesses. Plus even though the other models score better for QPF, the scores are not so much higher that the nam has no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 4:10 PM, usedtobe said: Of course that doesn't mean the nam will be more wrong this time though I'd still bet on the gfs and euro solutions. The tight gradient does make this storm worth watching. For us further east yes... those west of the BR are on the outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Holy smokes CMC Edit: not that it matters, but CMC is way west and huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 4:15 PM, MillzPirate said: Holy smokes CMC Can you be more specific? ---as we have people from many areas of the Mid-atlantic here, I need to see if "Holy smokes" is good for me. (lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 On 11/6/2012 at 4:19 PM, MDstorm said: Can you be more specific? ---as we have people from many areas of the Mid-atlantic here, I need to see if "Holy smokes" is good for me. (lol). can you take a screen shot of cmc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 CMC at 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Looks like 1 cm of precip in 6 hours between 18z Wed and 0z Thurs all the way west to Leesburg. A bit more after that as well, particularly east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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