dtk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I got blasted for crowning the Euro king before Sandy eventually verified its solution. So I wont claim a victor early again. It seems the Euro is just more capable of handling blocky patterns. It has not wavered from keeping the storm close to the coast. Please, you did not get blasted. I simply pointed out to wait until verification to make some of the claims you were touting. The Euro handled Sandy better than the GFS, particularly for lead times from 5.5-8 days out.....though the GFS/GGEM actually did quite well (particularly in catching onto the idea of a significant westward turn in the track....instead of hugging the coast). Adam is right about the potential fool's good in terms of using Sandy as justification/track record. The GFS actually had smaller mean track errors for TCs in 2012 for most lead times....which likely has little (no) bearing on forecasting winter storms this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yea NAM really dug the backside energy farther southwest. That's what this storm is all about. It's an obvious trend towards EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 We're all in this for exciting weather. Sunshine kills plenty of people. Yep, there are zero exceptions to exciting weather. Collateral damage doesn't even come into the equation. If you are a true enthusiast (most here are) then you never waver even one millimeter. You root for the most exciting outcome 100% of the time. And that's totally fine. God will forgive us. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Adam is right about the potential fool's good in terms of using Sandy as justification/track record. The GFS actually had smaller mean track errors for TCs in 2012 for most lead times....which likely has little (no) bearing on forecasting winter storms this year. I've actually found (empirically) that the errors and biases for TCs have tended to carry over into the winter for major winter storms. Probably has to do with the convective nature of both types of systems. Or I am mistaking noise for signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 High confidence for a noreaster. Medium for elevation snow. Low for metros. Anything else at this point still ill advised at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I've actually found (empirically) that the errors and biases for TCs have tended to carry over into the winter for major winter storms. Probably has to do with the convective nature of both types of systems. Or I am mistaking noise for signal. Interesting, given how different the scales are (Sandy excluded)....though I suppose it is possible. I believe that we have started computing tracks for extratropical/midlatitude systems...I will have to keep an eye on this winter to see if the mean errors correlate at all with the 2012 tropical track errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a reminder for everyone who is hemming and hawing that surface temps might only be 32-35F if the Euro verified. It DOESN'T MATTER if the snowfall rates are high enough. I don't care if it's 70F on Tuesday (which of course it won't be). If the rates are high enough, the snow will accumulate some on grassy surfaces in particular. I had over 10" from the "PSUHoffman" storm back in 2011 and my temp was 33F the whole time. Particularly in this situation with a marginal, nearly isothermal airmass below 850, we'll probably wetbulb down to near 32F and then latent heat release from melting will stabilize us right around that point. Ratios will obviously be piss poor in this situation, but who cares? It might snow in the first week of November. I'll deal with 5:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a reminder for everyone who is hemming and hawing that surface temps might only be 32-35F if the Euro verified. It DOESN'T MATTER if the snowfall rates are high enough. I don't care if it's 70F on Tuesday (which of course it won't be). If the rates are high enough, the snow will accumulate some on grassy surfaces in particular. I had over 10" from the "PSUHoffman" storm back in 2011 and my temp was 33F the whole time. Particularly in this situation with a marginal, nearly isothermal airmass below 850, we'll probably wetbulb down to near 32F and then latent heat release from melting will stabilize us right around that point. Ratios will obviously be piss poor in this situation, but who cares? It might snow in the first week of November. I'll deal with 5:1. Not to mention we have one fewer hour of sunlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a reminder for everyone who is hemming and hawing that surface temps might only be 32-35F if the Euro verified. It DOESN'T MATTER if the snowfall rates are high enough. I don't care if it's 70F on Tuesday (which of course it won't be). If the rates are high enough, the snow will accumulate some on grassy surfaces in particular. I had over 10" from the "PSUHoffman" storm back in 2011 and my temp was 33F the whole time. Particularly in this situation with a marginal, nearly isothermal airmass below 850, we'll probably wetbulb down to near 32F and then latent heat release from melting will stabilize us right around that point. Ratios will obviously be piss poor in this situation, but who cares? It might snow in the first week of November. I'll deal with 5:1. Get your logic out if this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a reminder for everyone who is hemming and hawing that surface temps might only be 32-35F if the Euro verified. It DOESN'T MATTER if the snowfall rates are high enough. I don't care if it's 70F on Tuesday (which of course it won't be). If the rates are high enough, the snow will accumulate some on grassy surfaces in particular. I had over 10" from the "PSUHoffman" storm back in 2011 and my temp was 33F the whole time. Particularly in this situation with a marginal, nearly isothermal airmass below 850, we'll probably wetbulb down to near 32F and then latent heat release from melting will stabilize us right around that point. Ratios will obviously be piss poor in this situation, but who cares? It might snow in the first week of November. I'll deal with 5:1. It's amazing how many times this argument pops up. We've seen it over and over and over. Low 30's = snow on roofs and grass. Within 1 hour after it drops to 32 it will stick on the streets. Previous day's weather has virtually zero impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. Thanks to you I had to clean my desk after I spit the coffee out of my mouth when I read this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Just a reminder for everyone who is hemming and hawing that surface temps might only be 32-35F if the Euro verified. It DOESN'T MATTER if the snowfall rates are high enough. I don't care if it's 70F on Tuesday (which of course it won't be). If the rates are high enough, the snow will accumulate some on grassy surfaces in particular. I had over 10" from the "PSUHoffman" storm back in 2011 and my temp was 33F the whole time. Particularly in this situation with a marginal, nearly isothermal airmass below 850, we'll probably wetbulb down to near 32F and then latent heat release from melting will stabilize us right around that point. Ratios will obviously be piss poor in this situation, but who cares? It might snow in the first week of November. I'll deal with 5:1. This. Snow will overcome warm surfaces if heavy enough. Been proven wrong time and again. October snow last year is a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 RGEM goes freaking gang busters. Would probably be euro verbatim or even worse. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 The thing that bothers me about the Euro's solution is...we've seen this before. Just a couple, or a few, time blurs together as I get older, years ago the Euro underwent a significant resolution upgrade and literally weeks after it was insistent on developing at first a closed, then a cut-off, system. The first several days picked the region just off of ORF for explosive cyclogenesis. Then, within the 72-hr range the Euro was trying for the immediate DE coast, while cutting and stalling the system. The GFS jumped into the game for a single run or two, but that was it. Ultimately I think eastern New England got pounded. I don't think it came to its senses until about 48-hr ahead of the storm. I don't have the maps, but I seem to remember a dearth of cold air then too along with a ridge axis that was too far east for comfort (this one's even further I think), and a screaming 200mb flow that looked like it basically wanted to make the plains state ridge all but topple over into the Great Lakes. This isn't as extreme, but it's too similar, and so lacking in both precedent and other model support, that it's difficult to buy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Eh not much difference here... 12Z NAM 12Z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Should give us a preview of what the CMC will look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Valid to be concerned about the Euro overamping. It's done so at least a handful of times in recent winters. However all the globals have a big storm for the most part. GFS is so often east in this range it's hard to say its any more right than the Euro. IMO you should weight the Euro/ens at the point where we currently sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I find it a little odd that the Euro has the cold surface despite a warm low-level bias and the GFS is warm despite a low-level cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And...... the GFS is still east.......... gonna be a battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I find it a little odd that the Euro has the cold surface despite a warm low-level bias and the GFS is warm despite a low-level cold bias. Models are upgraded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12Z GFS comes back west but swings kinda more east then hooks back in. Thing is each run for it at upper levels changes so it still is not found its solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 And...... the GFS is still east.......... gonna be a battle It is actually a big hit, just swings out then hooks back in. Seems less likely but it is getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 It's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sort of a weird evolution but the GFS still shows a hit. Close enough to the Euro it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS stall alert at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS stall alert at 66 That would be a sustained onshore fetch for the places that don't really need it...Certainly a less impressive solution for points west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That would be a sustained onshore fetch for the places that don't really need it...Certainly a less impressive solution for points west of DC. Its actually a much better solution than previous GFS runs have shown, follow the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 GFS is coming aboard. #bookit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I get cold and clouds. Maybe a flurry if I'm lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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