am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 1:52 PM, needbiggerboat said: There really isn't a valid reason to doubt the Euro's depiction, unless there's evidence it's handling the broad scale synoptic features incorrectly. Otherwise, given the Euro's recent performance, the 00z run is a plausible solution, despite the calendar date. On 11/5/2012 at 1:55 PM, eurojosh said: But that's the point isn't it - despite the calendar date. I think the date is what's driving so much of the skepticism. Climo-wise, it would be an extremely unusual event to see more than a trace of snow in DC in the first week of November, no matter how good the Euro proved itself with Sandy. If this was Jan/Feb, it'd be a lot easier to have #faithintheflakes... It's also the deepest, earliest, most wrapped up solution, which is what needs to happen for DC snow. It's plausible, but despite its track record, I don't think it's the most likely outcome at this time. Blending the GFS and Euro will get you to a solution that is more likely. And using Sandy as the reason to buy the Euro and dismiss all the other guidance is setting yourself up for failure (look at Isaac and Debby this year for examples when humping the Euro would have cost you big time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:01 PM, Kmlwx said: Quick question - when will the upper air features be over our sampling network? Already there. The big player is the shortwave over the Central Plains right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I got blasted for crowning the Euro king before Sandy eventually verified its solution. So I wont claim a victor early again. It seems the Euro is just more capable of handling blocky patterns. It has not wavered from keeping the storm close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:06 PM, am19psu said: Already there. The big player is the shortwave over the Central Plains right now. Thanks. So hopefully we start getting better agreement. I always appreciate when mets from outside the subforum pop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Early on, its not looking like the NAM is gonna do it for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:07 PM, clskinsfan said: I got blasted for crowning the Euro king before Sandy eventually verified its solution. So I wont claim a victor early again. It seems the Euro is just more capable of handling blocky patterns. It has not wavered from keeping the storm close to the coast. The difference being that the blocking isn't as strong this time around, which is helping the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:06 PM, am19psu said: Already there. The big player is the shortwave over the Central Plains right now. Yep, and it still seems innocent and harmless: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:05 PM, am19psu said: It's also the deepest, earliest, most wrapped up solution, which is what needs to happen for DC snow. It's plausible, but despite its track record, I don't think it's the most likely outcome at this time. Blending the GFS and Euro will get you to a solution that is more likely. And using Sandy as the reason to buy the Euro and dismiss all the other guidance is setting yourself up for failure (look at Isaac and Debby this year for examples when humping the Euro would have cost you big time). Thanks for your insight, and you are absolutely correct. Just commenting on the propensity to doubt early season snowfall around here, and the better verification scores on the Euro. The last thing I want to do this week is shovel snow, and for the good of NJ/NY, I'd prefer a weaker more OTS outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:17 PM, needbiggerboat said: Thanks for your insight, and you are absolutely correct. Just commenting on the propensity to doubt early season snowfall around here, and the better verification scores on the Euro. The last thing I want to do this week is shovel snow, and for the good of NJ/NY, I'd prefer a weaker more OTS outcome. Blasphemy!!!!!!!!!!!! #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:17 PM, needbiggerboat said: Thanks for your insight, and you are absolutely correct. Just commenting on the propensity to doubt early season snowfall around here, and the better verification scores on the Euro. The last thing I want to do this week is shovel snow, and for the good of NJ/NY, I'd prefer a weaker more OTS outcome. I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:19 PM, Ian said: I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. Why not, the disingenuity doesnt belong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nam seems to be stuck @ 36 but there is only a slight difference @h5 so far. Digs just a tad further south but I doubt it can close off in time on this run. Edit: noticeable differences starting at hr 39. Trending stronger and further south for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:19 PM, Ian said: I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. You are my hero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:10 PM, MillzPirate said: Early on, its not looking like the NAM is gonna do it for us It might not, but to me (at 39h) it looks a touch more favorable than 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Will the clipper save us? #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 2nd worst weather-related hashtag behind #snOMG, and not just because they have to do with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Trough definitely sharper vs 6z nam. It's not going to do it on this run but I see nothing glaring to say the euro is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:19 PM, Ian said: I'd be willing to trade one coastal NJ town for every inch of snow imby. I'd love for you to get tons of snow, wind, etc, power loss and structural damage, so you can feel great about your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:25 PM, needbiggerboat said: I'd love for you to get tons of snow, wind, etc, power loss and structural damage, so you can feel great about your back yard. We are here because we want snow, if you wanna feel bad go somewhere else, no offense. Ian is driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Anyone got good euro 3meter temps for 21z 7 Nov, based on the wunderground, I get something like this. Does it seem correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:27 PM, ddweatherman said: We are here because we want snow, if you wanna feel bad go somewhere else, no offense. Ian is driving the bus. I thought this whole moral weather argument was put to bed years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 NAM was pretty close this run.....glad to see it working itself back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 1:47 PM, Ian said: I've never driven a bus before. Hopefully I don't run into a wall. I'll give you the keys for this one and let you drive. You should feel honored, I don't let just anyone drive the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:25 PM, needbiggerboat said: I'd love for you to get tons of snow, wind, etc, power loss and structural damage, so you can feel great about your back yard. Yes, because Ian was dead serious in his post. Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:27 PM, ddweatherman said: We are here because we want snow, if you wanna feel bad go somewhere else, no offense. Ian is driving the bus. Yeah I know how this place rolls. Thanks for tip tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:34 PM, stormtracker said: I'll give you the keys for this one and let you drive. You should feel honored, I don't let just anyone drive the bus. He should not be honored, the only reason you are letting him drive the bus is because you will be to drunk after Obama's win tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:28 PM, Bob Chill said: I thought this whole moral weather argument was put to bed years ago? There are many shades of snark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 12z on the left and 6z on the right. Hr 45/51. You can see the nam starting to dig and sharpen. That is our key (stating obvious). If the GFS starts showing the same trend then it's time to really decide how "right" the euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:28 PM, Bob Chill said: I thought this whole moral weather argument was put to bed years ago? We're all in this for exciting weather. Sunshine kills plenty of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 On 11/5/2012 at 2:34 PM, stormtracker said: I'll give you the keys for this one and let you drive. You should feel honored, I don't let just anyone drive the bus. I thought the bus was totaled after that debacle of a winter last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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