MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's so nice having the models come out an hour earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Do you have good 3m temp forecasts from the euro? Looks to me like the temps are mid 30 which might not matter with really heavy precipitation but...... Wes, you gonna do a CWG update tomorrow on this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It's so nice having the models come out an hour earlier Ha, I was thinking the same thing. Those pre-Sandy Euro 0z runs were a bit rough staying up so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Just for the hell of it the JMA is similar to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wes, you gonna do a CWG update tomorrow on this storm? If the models stay on course, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z won't be OTS this run that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18z won't be OTS this run that's for sure. Good track and good precip, funky 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 According to the GFS, Wes will be writing. Further west for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18Z GFS yesterday was west as well only to have 0Z go back east. Interesting as usually 18Z runs are mostly SE. Hopefully 0Z fully comes around and we can stop guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Good track and good precip, funky 850s Is "funky" the new term for "way too warm for snow"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is "funky" the new term for "way too warm for snow"? No, bubbles of below 0, clearly dynamic cooling driven depending on intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 According to the GFS, Wes will be writing. Further west for sure. Wes's title. "Models show boring, windy, and cold rainstorm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others. Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others. Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here. Within the next couple of Euro runs we'll get the Ian play-by-play where he says the run is very similar but is warmer at the surface and 850. That's when it's officially over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 I wouldn't worry about temps too much yet. It's close enough that a crushing band will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others. Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here. Ukie looked to be snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Within the next couple of Euro runs we'll get the Ian play-by-play where he says the run is very similar but is warmer at the surface and 850. That's when it's officially over. Very fine line for sure. Euro may be showing sub freezing 850's but not by much. 1-2 degrees isn't much of an insurance policy and not a big error either (assuming the euro is wrong). If it still showing a snow solution with tomorrow night's run and other guidance trends colder then I guess it really could happen but I'm loaded with doubt on this one. If I lived on Westminster I would prob be a bit more optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Ukie looked to be snow as well I thought that was a really small guitar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Is "funky" the new term for "way too warm for snow"? Got any code words for way too dry to snow? I have a feeling I'll be needing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12Z Euro on Wunderground 2m temp maps has the area east of the mtns (and even mtn areas) between 0-4C, so it's hard to tell precisely what the model shows since that is quite a range. However, the areas of accumulating snow correspond to the high qpf so as Ian said, forget it if it's not coming down hard verbatim this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Wes's title. "Models show boring, windy, and cold rainstorm" Sounds like last week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. I think more than not solutions that look like these tend to cool at the surface rather than warm closing in. But the overall setup at the sfc isn't necessarily perfectly ideal with high location and whatnot. We just pray to get blitzed for now in the DC/Balt area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 18Z GFS yesterday was west as well only to have 0Z go back east. Interesting as usually 18Z runs are mostly SE. Hopefully 0Z fully comes around and we can stop guessing. Do you have any non-anecdotal data to support this? I wouldn't worry about temps too much yet. It's close enough that a crushing band will do it. This. We still have a couple of days to hammer out the details WRT low-level temps. I'm thinking BL temps will be marginal (just above freezing), but who knows if that will be enough to keep everything that falls as snow from sticking at this time. At this range, you could probably still take a couple of degrees off the 2m temps on the Euro Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Do you have any non-anecdotal data to support this? We mention this like all the time on here. Not sure where i'd find info on it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 This. We still have a couple of days to hammer out the details WRT low-level temps. I'm thinking BL temps will be marginal (just above freezing), but who knows if that will be enough to keep everything that falls as snow from sticking at this time. At this range, you could probably still take a couple of degrees off the 2m temps on the Euro Op. I'm leaning more toward us getting at least some snow despite the nagging climo issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location. That's exactly what the 12z Euro does. I looked it here at school (we have accuwx pro) and the everything from 700mb down bulbs out at -4°C. So even the higher elevations are only going to get very measly ratios. The Wet Bulb Zero is at 950mb and the Surface is at 33 or 34°F. Very much like the October storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We mention this like all the time on here. Not sure where i'd find info on it though. We do? Who's "we"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We do? Who's "we"? It was def the running joke in 09-10 before the north trends commenced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 We do? Who's "we"? Weenies looking at 18z models that show the storm too far SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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