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Election week coastal storm threat


Midlo Snow Maker

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Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others.

Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here.

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Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others.

Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here.

Within the next couple of Euro runs we'll get the Ian play-by-play where he says the run is very similar but is warmer at the surface and 850. That's when it's officially over.

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Only one model showing the perfect scenario (and we need perfect +1 in Nov). Yea, it's a pretty good model but still, anything more than flakes in the air is pretty unlikely. When the euro decides that there just isn't enough cold air then it will look just like the others.

Not saying the euro's solution is impossible but let's be honest here.

Ukie looked to be snow as well

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Within the next couple of Euro runs we'll get the Ian play-by-play where he says the run is very similar but is warmer at the surface and 850. That's when it's officially over.

Very fine line for sure. Euro may be showing sub freezing 850's but not by much. 1-2 degrees isn't much of an insurance policy and not a big error either (assuming the euro is wrong). If it still showing a snow solution with tomorrow night's run and other guidance trends colder then I guess it really could happen but I'm loaded with doubt on this one. If I lived on Westminster I would prob be a bit more optimistic.

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12Z Euro on Wunderground 2m temp maps has the area east of the mtns (and even mtn areas) between 0-4C, so it's hard to tell precisely what the model shows since that is quite a range. However, the areas of accumulating snow correspond to the high qpf so as Ian said, forget it if it's not coming down hard verbatim this run.

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It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location.

I think more than not solutions that look like these tend to cool at the surface rather than warm closing in. But the overall setup at the sfc isn't necessarily perfectly ideal with high location and whatnot. We just pray to get blitzed for now in the DC/Balt area.

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18Z GFS yesterday was west as well only to have 0Z go back east. Interesting as usually 18Z runs are mostly SE. Hopefully 0Z fully comes around and we can stop guessing.

Do you have any non-anecdotal data to support this?

I wouldn't worry about temps too much yet. It's close enough that a crushing band will do it.

This. We still have a couple of days to hammer out the details WRT low-level temps. I'm thinking BL temps will be marginal (just above freezing), but who knows if that will be enough to keep everything that falls as snow from sticking at this time. At this range, you could probably still take a couple of degrees off the 2m temps on the Euro Op.

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This. We still have a couple of days to hammer out the details WRT low-level temps. I'm thinking BL temps will be marginal (just above freezing), but who knows if that will be enough to keep everything that falls as snow from sticking at this time. At this range, you could probably still take a couple of degrees off the 2m temps on the Euro Op.

I'm leaning more toward us getting at least some snow despite the nagging climo issue.

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It had 925mb temps below 32 in a narrow area of strong vvs. Like Ian said, a death man would probably dynamically force a 33-34F snow for even lowest elevations if it happened. Of course this all has to be timed right and that will depend on storm location.

That's exactly what the 12z Euro does. I looked it here at school (we have accuwx pro) and the everything from 700mb down bulbs out at -4°C. So even the higher elevations are only going to get very measly ratios. The Wet Bulb Zero is at 950mb and the Surface is at 33 or 34°F. Very much like the October storm last year.

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