WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 1:11 PM, Ellinwood said: The Euro Ensemble mean (which probably matter more than the Operationals at this point) came in further WEST on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run (which actually increased our precip but kept the 850 0C line in the same spot). 06z GFS Ensemble mean is about where the 12z Euro Ensemble was. Ensembles FTW. I like the sound of that. Isn't timing an issue here as well. Wouldn't slower argue for further west vs. a faster solution? Or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 1:11 PM, Ellinwood said: The Euro Ensemble mean (which probably matter more than the Operationals at this point) came in further WEST on the 00z run compared to yesterday's 12z run (which actually increased our precip but kept the 850 0C line in the same spot). 06z GFS Ensemble mean is about where the 12z Euro Ensemble was. Ensembles FTW. It looks the the euro ens mean 500 closes of a low far enough south to put us in the deformation zone though I don't have any precip output from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 NAM seems to be colder on this latest run. Not sure of temps for Jersey but seems to get hit pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Nice sprinkles from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 12z NAM and GFS quick peek shows littl to no QPF for us as storm is far enough east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 And just like that Goofus comes in with way warmer 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 The NAM at this range is lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 You guys realize that the NAMs track would probably be ideal for your location. The 500mb at 84 hours clearly shows that the low would probably bomb and travel WNW as the low is being pulled inland. Would probably set a deform zone over your area IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:01 PM, Ian said: Nice sprinkles from the gfs Most important run of the Euro (so far this "winter season") coming up? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Anyone have Euro Ensemble QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:11 PM, thunderman said: Anyone have Euro Ensemble QPF? 1"+ 95 and east generally. .75" back to frederick/leesburg then almost straight south. .5" about 30 miles west of that. it's drier than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:15 PM, Ian said: 1"+ 95 and east generally. .75" back to frederick/leesburg then almost straight south. .5" about 30 miles west of that. it's drier than the op. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 my concern with the euro pulling a "euro bust" has grown just since it has shifted east recent runs. tho most of the time the gfs is about where we want it however cliche that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:16 PM, thunderman said: Thanks! you're in like the .25-.50 area. i need to learn my geography of the region better. i've finally almost gotten the dc area down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:17 PM, Ian said: my concern with the euro pulling a "euro bust" has grown just since it has shifted east recent runs. tho most of the time the gfs is about where we want it however cliche that is. It's gonna be one of those tight gradient storm which are always worrisome. The 09Z sref guidance was all over the place in terms of QP suggesting that this is a situation where the initial conditions are much more important than for the sandy forecast at the same time range. For those looking for a deterministic forecast right now, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:18 PM, Ian said: you're in like the .25-.50 area. i need to learn my geography of the region better. i've finally almost gotten the dc area down. Maybe a 1/2" of snow in early November? I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is way west. lol. Models FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Much different than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 GGEM is warm though, yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:31 PM, EasternUSWX said: GGEM is way west. lol. Models FTL. If we post about each one enough it will snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:43 PM, H2O said: If we post about each one enough it will snow Sometime in the next 4 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:43 PM, MillzPirate said: GGEM is warm though, yikes Everyone loves the euro but it is snow happy. Did we get that 2 feet of snow in the coastal plain it had a week out from Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:23 PM, usedtobe said: It's gonna be one of those tight gradient storm which are always worrisome. The 09Z sref guidance was all over the place in terms of QP suggesting that this is a situation where the initial conditions are much more important than for the sandy forecast at the same time range. For those looking for a deterministic forecast right now, good luck. yeah that's a big spread there. not an easy forecast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:46 PM, Ian said: Everyone loves the euro but it is snow happy. Did we get that 2 feet of snow in the coastal plain it had a week out from Sandy? Part of me is glad we are tracking storms this early, makes for a long winter. That's good because winter already seems short. But another part of me wishes it was mid 60's until about Thanksgiving. Anyway, if we get any snow from this it's a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:43 PM, MillzPirate said: GGEM is warm though, yikes The GGEM is always warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 4:50 PM, Ian said: yeah that's a big spread there. not an easy forecast for sure. None are showing snow despite the qp spreads suggesting a diversity of storm tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 UK looks much colder than GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 5:01 PM, usedtobe said: None are showing snow despite the qp spreads suggesting a diversity of storm tracks. I think the EURO is the only one showing snow right now for us... if we see any precip it will likely be rain, but to see a few flakes would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 5:00 PM, PhineasC said: The GGEM is always warm. True considering the 850 line is east of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 On 11/4/2012 at 5:03 PM, packbacker said: UK looks much colder than GGEM. sure is colder! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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