Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 0z euro and 6z gfs are showing something along the coast euro gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Nice block! Heh, I just posted in the wind competition thread about the NAO. It's forecast to remain negative through mid month. Most guidance keeps it below -1 sd as well with plenty showing it sticking in the -2 territory. This in itself shows that the potential for a coastal something or other exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The idea is sort of still there on teh 12z GFS Boy is it cold outside... wet and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 GFS is thinking about something on or around the 6th but it's all rain at this point. Something worth keeping an eye on. Decent hp placement, not bad @ h5, and blocking is considering its options. We need the vortex between gl and canada to move a few hundred miles west and it will look a whole lot different. I honesty don't like Nov weather wise. One of my least fave months. Cold enough to hamper outdoor stuff, switch over to getting dark before dinnertime, typically no snow prospects, and trees look depressing. If it wasn't for the speculation about winter and the NFL I wouldn't like the month at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Guess Euro said NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Guess Euro said NO Sorta maybe, just off the coast. Not much precip, weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Sorta maybe, just off the coast. Not much precip, weak. Thanks - been catching up on work and did not have time to review! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 FWIW, GGEM seems to want to play as well. Way north, but who cares at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Looks to me like the Euro and GFS are interested in the idea of a coastal, though too far east. Interesting to see the pattern for fairly "non-progressive" vorts diving down south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 6z gfs like the idea more than 0z. Tough is negative and a h5 closed vort at the base sprouts a coastal. It then proceeds to craaaaawl up the coast. It's all rain but still. Looking at h5 keeps me interested for now. If the 850 low formed far enough south and moved up off the coast then thermals would look quite different. Election day blizzard. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 atmospheric memory #faithintheflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Looks chilly late next week. Will be frosty in the mornings. 372hrs on the gfs looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 372hrs on the gfs looks interesting. Doesn't it always? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Doesn't it always? Time to refill that Lexapro prescription before winter sets in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 FWIW... 18z GFS for Election Day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 FWIW... 18z GFS for Election Day... Predictably, surface temps looks a few degrees too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 We booted the gfs to the curb can't hug it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's going to be very difficult to get excited about anything after Sandy. Like.... forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Predictably, surface temps looks a few degrees too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's going to be very difficult to get excited about anything after Sandy. Like.... forever. yeah till like 1-2" of snow is a guarantee and then everyone will go nuts like usual here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 FWIW, Larry Cosgrove on FB (reposting with his permission): I think the GFS ensemble idea of a strong winter-type storm over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states is correct. Teleconnections support the system evolution, with shortwave energy undercutting a -NAO styled block. Add a surge of cold air and a fairly prominent 500MB low, and my friends in Appalachia into the Eastern Seaboard above Petersburg VA are in for some awful weather Sunday and Monday. Check out the GOES image, and read Mike Harpe's comments in the post below this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I would favor more than the Euro shows. The euro 500 pattern supports the idea of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I guess it is that time of the year when weenies post 200 hour 18Z GFS plots and lament how the storm will be a dud due to warm surface temperatures, even though the model just moved the low 850 miles between runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I guess it is that time of the year when weenies post 200 hour 18Z GFS plots and lament how the storm will be a dud due to warm surface temperatures, even though the model just moved the low 850 miles between runs. It is also the same model that 7 days out showed a NNE landfall, so it was only off by 800 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 yeah till like 1-2" of snow is a guarantee and then everyone will go nuts like usual here 1-2" is a real storm relative to last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Next week's storm looks more like a swing and a miss to me... maybe up into New England, but getting snow around these parts will be very difficult. 500mb heights show the 00z GFS Op (cyan line) has a much greater negatively tilted trough and more amplified blocking compared to the ensembles (white line): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 It's going to be very difficult to get excited about anything after Sandy. Like.... forever. Except when the tropical systems run into big blocks and get sucked into negatively tilted troughs in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Anybody know what the final temp anom for Oct was at the major airports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I guess it is that time of the year when weenies post 200 hour 18Z GFS plots and lament how the storm will be a dud due to warm surface temperatures, even though the model just moved the low 850 miles between runs. Yeah, it's funny. It's November - the pattern has to be more perfect than usual for it to snow in our area. People seem to forget that most of our snow comes in January and February. Even in December, it can be a struggle. After last winter, I have very modest expectations. I'm OK if we don't see anything in November, and don't see much of anything in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Chilly this morning here in Columbia. Hope everyone's got power back. We didn't lose power, though our back window in the kitchen started leaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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