weatherMA Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Man....gotta love Pete. Hugging the euro and tossing the GFS COMPLETELY...extreme much? 65F next Wednesday? If it snows...this could hurt. Why not throw up 45-50F and rain? If it snows...nbd. If it rains and is 65F..nbd. edit: Just to clarify...no disrespect meant...but I just don't understand this forecast. It could be 65F and rain next Wednesday...but it just seems like the extreme warm end of the solution, and unlikely to play out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 LOL good ole pistol Pete. Ensembles don't really support that either for now but he's not one to shy away from being a maverick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Unfortunately for you the most likely solution is probably in between...meaning snow/rain in elevated SNE and NNE and cold rain in southern areas. Either way I'd be surprised if I didn't see my first flakes up here from this (missed the flurries back in mid OCT)...whether its from accumulation, back end snow showers/flurries, or even a snow flurry Saturday morning up here (although I'l be home this weekend). Yeah I'd be SHOCKED if we don't see first flakes this upcoming week, whether it be associated with something synoptic of just mountain SN-. Euro ensembles bring the low somewhere over SE MA/Cape next week. A little too far west. I suppose there is the chance of something further east given the blocking, but it can't be too phase happy as well. GFS ensembles were near 40/70. With their noted SE bias, something near SE New England seems reasonable this far out along with a decently favorable blocking pattern, at least for elevated NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 As the weenies turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 As the weenies turn Euro Ens are probably an elevation dependent snow event for NNE based on the low position, granted I don't have access to QPF data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 At 168 hours out, trying to pin down a 50 mile swath for the track is fruitless. I like the signal for some sort of storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 At 168 hours out, trying to pin down a 50 mile swath for the track is fruitless. I like the signal for some sort of storm though. Pretty much all you can say for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 At 168 hours out, trying to pin down a 50 mile swath for the track is fruitless. I like the signal for some sort of storm though. Pretty much all you can say for now. Yep but man just 14 days ago we were bored stiff now we are just stiff. Pretty large agreement again for a strong storm, oh boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I hope everyone gets feet and feet of snow this winter, but wind and coastal flooding would make a horrific situation in some areas even worse. Lots of communities totally naked right now with dune and man made protection wiped out. Having said that, mother nature will do whatever she wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 lol he's the first candidate for a meltdown this year. He's very close haha... I'm not close. I'd be surprised if anyone can find posts of me having a melt down on these boards It will snow up here this winter, I'm not worried. You just think I'm ready for a meltdown because I'm not fully on-board with this being an epic pattern to start the winter, lol. With that said, a 2-inch rainstorm would not be the preferred weather during the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 GUIDANCE STILL HAVE TIMING/EMPHASIS ISSUES BUT NOW BETTER AGREE THAT DEEPER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR LATER TUE INTO THU AS A FRONTAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST MOVES SLOWLY OFFSHORE AND UP OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WOULD BRING BEST ORGANIZED RAINS FROM THE ERN MID-ATLANTIC TO ERN NEW ENGLAND. A TRACK IN THIS VEIN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE LOW WRAPS INLAND. INCREASING WINDS ALONG COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY ONWARD MAY LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION. Right one time ...first 10 days of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Typical higher elevation snow for sne, rain cp, next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 This "event" is on the front page of Boston.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 This "event" is on the front page of Boston.com Hype is insane for 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 This "event" is on the front page of Boston.com AmWx weenie landed a big job in online journalism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 18z GFS is warm for the coast, but makes me very happy in Upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 18Z gfs looks rainy again. edit: Southern/Central Maine cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Swan dive off the 4k picnic table. I'll be one of those high divers... jumping hundreds of feet and aiming for a kiddie pool Only to get 18" of upslope after. Speaking of upslope...Meso-scale models signaling decent upslope this weekend from Sandy remnants...Cpick has been all over this for like a week, haha. NAM showing up to 0.67" QPF over the northern Green upslope region this weekend... should whiten the hills nicely and even bring snow showers to the mountain valleys at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 18Z gfs looks rainy again. edit: Southern/Central Maine cash in. Wow... 18z GFS is an epic upslope snowstorm for NNE, lol. This would be nuts. If I can get a 976mb low anywhere near FVE/northern ME/Maritimes region, it'll be game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 AWT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 When the hell is the NWS gonna fix the problem with the server? It doesn't take 5 days to fix a phone cable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 When the hell is the NWS gonna fix the problem with the server? It doesn't take 5 days to fix a phone cable Funding FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Funding FTL. Didn't they say they are taking the long term AFD and forecasts out of the local office hands and having HPC do long term? I'd be willing to bet this is the beginning of that and they just aren't saying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Didn't they say they are taking the long term AFD and forecasts out of the local office hands and having HPC do long term? I'd be willing to bet this is the beginning of that and they just aren't saying it I recall something said, but I have no idea. I think this is a comm issue from the bulletin I saw. Something eastern region related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I recall something said, but I have no idea. I think this is a comm issue from the bulletin I saw. Something eastern region related. The local offices will only be doing the short term forecasts,,and HPC will do all long term, which I think is an awful , awful idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Speaking of upslope...Meso-scale models signaling decent upslope this weekend from Sandy remnants...Cpick has been all over this for like a week, haha. NAM showing up to 0.67" QPF over the northern Green upslope region this weekend... should whiten the hills nicely and even bring snow showers to the mountain valleys at night. I've been keeping an eye on this as well. I'll be at 4k on Sunday ... might be leaving bootprints in a light coating. Will def be chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 0Z most important run ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The Weather Channel reporter in Toms River, NJ just said, "These folks are scared of what could be a harsh winter storm coming up next week." WOW that's ridiculous to start getting folks worried about what is being modeled during the middle of next week. I mean the dude's on the New Jersey coast interviewing people, what are the chances of accumulating snow there next week? Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The Weather Channel reporter in Toms River, NJ just said, "These folks are scared of what could be a harsh winter storm coming up next week." WOW that's ridiculous to start getting folks worried about what is being modeled during the middle of next week. I mean the dude's on the New Jersey coast interviewing people, what are the chances of accumulating snow there next week? Ridiculous. KFS has lots of street cred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The Weather Channel reporter in Toms River, NJ just said, "These folks are scared of what could be a harsh winter storm coming up next week." WOW that's ridiculous to start getting folks worried about what is being modeled during the middle of next week. I mean the dude's on the New Jersey coast interviewing people, what are the chances of accumulating snow there next week? Ridiculous. As someone said earlier, now everyone thinks that if a model has it 10 days out it must be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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