powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Pattern is such that block sets up combined with west coast ridge to form possible negatively tilted trough. Not sure of cutoff potential as new trough moves into west coast and may keep pattern moving. 12z GFS does show how everyone could get snow...starts in SNE and slowly spreads northwest, ending with deformation/upslope combo (the best kind) way up here. No way it cuts off though. I agree it looks progressive. Weird H5 evolution too as CTsnowstorm said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Bit of a tough forecast because this storm is really coinciding with a bit of a pattern change with the pattern becoming more progressive. So there are a few complications through s/w interactions. The Greenland block seems to transition to more of a N Atl ridge during this time, so any s/w ridging progressing over Newfoundland will be superimposed on this longer wave ridge and amplify toward the NW. This results in a better chance of the primary s/w rapidly becoming negatively tilted, slowing down, and either becoming cut off like the CMC does (a common overdone solution from that model), or the more likely scenario: phasing with the next s/w in the polar jet. So then it comes down to timing that phase, and how complete a phase it is. Once again, I think this N Atl ridge situation argues for something that amplifies a little too much, too fast for your liking (in terms of looking for snow in SNE). Lots of time for changes, and I do anticipate some variety given the more progressive look to the flow by the time we reach the middle to end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 12z GGEM really digs the southern branch. Northern shortwave bit late to the party but it looks like a big warm storm on GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 November rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Gibbs says Euro is monster nor'easter but jacked inland. Damaging wind event For all Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 That's not an inland wind storm, but tons of rain for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Powder freak skiing off cliff with this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Powder freak skiing off cliff with this run? Waterskiing off cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Waterskiing off cliff. lol he's the first candidate for a meltdown this year. He's very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Waterskiing off cliff. Swan dive off the 4k picnic table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 lol he's the first candidate for a meltdown this year. He's very close Swan dive off the 4k picnic table. Only to get 18" of upslope after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 The 500 evolution is pretty cool to see on the euro. There is a big s/w that digs south and spawns a low off the coast. As it pulls north, a second disturbance digs and stretches southeast, taking the first s/w and moving it north and eventually phasing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 That's a pretty amplified ridge out west being modeled* 132h anomalies on the 12z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 When does this storm occur on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 European Ens next, Kevs big soueaster on the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 European Ens next, Kevs big soueaster on the OP If we can't have snow next best thing is a damaging screaming sou'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 If we can't have snow next best thing is a damaging screaming sou'easter Last thing RI coast needs is 15 hours of gale force SSE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Congrats Whiteface Mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I think the flow buckles enough for a storm but has enough kick to prevent an inland runner; although, I agree that it is a delicate balance. It is good to see the players outlined a month ago still showing up and now being modeled. This is a Heather A signal so it definitely needs to be taken seriously for a wintry potential, regardless of the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I think the flow buckles enough for a storm but has enough kick to prevent an inland runner; although, I agree that it is a delicate balance. It is good to see the players outlined a month ago still showing up and now being modeled. This is a Heather A signal so it definitely needs to be taken seriously for a wintry potential, regardless of the date. Agreed. Just started looking at some stuff and you have to like to upstream blocking signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Ens like a G.O.MAine LP, so that is a good sign for some action. A Tippy teleconnection, Archambault phase change system? I think the flow buckles enough for a storm but has enough kick to prevent an inland runner; although, I agree that it is a delicate balance. It is good to see the players outlined a month ago still showing up and now being modeled. This is a Heather A signal so it definitely needs to be taken seriously for a wintry potential, regardless of the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Anyone have the extended forecast discussion link from the NWS predictions center?? The NWS 's sites are down except for a temp site. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 If we can't have snow next best thing is a damaging screaming sou'easter Unfortunately for you the most likely solution is probably in between...meaning snow/rain in elevated SNE and NNE and cold rain in southern areas. Either way I'd be surprised if I didn't see my first flakes up here from this (missed the flurries back in mid OCT)...whether its from accumulation, back end snow showers/flurries, or even a snow flurry Saturday morning up here (although I'l be home this weekend). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 And dang Monday is going to be cold. Maybe stuck in the upper 30s up here? Lower 20s Monday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Not boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Euro ensembles bring the low somewhere over SE MA/Cape next week. A little too far west. I suppose there is the chance of something further east given the blocking, but it can't be too phase happy as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Agreed. Just started looking at some stuff and you have to like to upstream blocking signal. Definitely love the signal. At this point, climo has to be a factor and predicting snowfall outside of the interior is risky. However, I do believe the players are there to get the snow into the coastal plain and/or prevent significant low level warming. As with most early season events, wind direction has to be perfect and the strength of the UVM is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Nicely done...but we need a couple of needles threaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 HM FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 I guess as far as what might argue for something like a coastal hugger is the amplification as ridging develops a little too far south for what is ideal to keep something a little further east. Thus high amplfication = coastal hugger. But timing is everything and if this does not phase or decides to have a little more of a confluence area north of Maine, it would help at least western interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.