Bostonseminole Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Another dark morning dawns, thankfully remains mild. glad is mild for all those without power.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Well on the other hand, anybody who locks in a day 8 or 9 snowstorm on the euro also needs to hand in their met degree. The past does not equate to the future. I'm not speaking about next week, this is just a general statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Well on the other hand, anybody who locks in a day 8 or 9 snowstorm on the euro also needs to hand in their met degree. The past does not equate to the future. I'm not speaking about next week, this is just a general statement. Tru dat, I was speaking of its 5H pattern. LOL at PF melting down about Novie temps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 glad is mild for all those without power. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. My friends reported their house was 51 degrees this morning, torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 My friends reported their house was 51 degrees this morning, torch!. Ouch, that is cold6z gfs looks reasonable at this point. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Another torchtober in the books.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 climo question, why are the max speeds on F6's for all 4 majors only in the 40's for the 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Perfect start to November. Chilly, kind of cloudy, raw, it's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Did Forky die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 climo question, why are the max speeds on F6's for all 4 majors only in the 40's for the 29th? I've always wondered about that stuff...is it only sustained winds that make it on the max speed for F6 reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Another torchtober in the books.... Good ol' +4F up in these parts for the month. Not even close after a cold start to the month and even a day of flakes to the valley floor around the 12th, and four days of measurable snowfall on the mountain. Last two weeks had some ridiculous departures due to the humid SW/SE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Tru dat, I was speaking of its 5H pattern. LOL at PF melting down about Novie temps though. LOL yeah what can I say...I'm a bit worried about opening on the 17th and I'm assuming there are quite a bit of other ski areas getting nervous as well. Its different from looking for one 36 hour period for a snowfall, I'm looking for sustained cold. The 00z models last night came in a bit colder Saturday through Tuesday so that's good news. SNE can have that weak coastal snowstorm if I can get some good -10C air at H850 lol. Snowmaking weather definitely trumps a light/moderate snowfall at this point for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 euro says watch tuesday going forward as well. HM at least 5 days ago called for a storm system with good snow chances for us in this time frame. so i wouldn't bet against it Ha I didn't see this, thanks. It's been longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 For the storm next week, I'm concerned the models have been too progressive. Considering that Sandy maybe enhancing the -NAO block and there is decent West Coast Ridge. It's outlier and maybe overphased, but the 0z GGEM has 982mb low over the Mid-Atlantic at 168hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Ray, not for seeing patients. Since its the New England regional office, I sometimes need to go there for meetings and management issues. Nice...gimme a ring next time you're here......I work in the billing department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 That's a pretty awesome weenie solution on the Euro. Too bad its a week out. But there is some decent support for a coastal amongst the ensembles. If it was December, I'd probably be looking at it a lot more closely, but cold air may be at a premium here so a lotof solutions can happen where we get a storm, but its just a lot of cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 climo question, why are the max speeds on F6's for all 4 majors only in the 40's for the 29th? It's the maximum 2-minute speed and not the highest gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 Maybe it's because of Sandy, but a lot of talk for something 7+ days out from people in social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Maybe it's because of Sandy, but a lot of talk for something 7+ days out from people in social media. even HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 It's the maximum 2-minute speed and not the highest gust. Good to know...I've always wondered because Ive seen on severe days, those winds are much lower than the max gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Maybe it's because of Sandy, but a lot of talk for something 7+ days out from people in social media. I feel like the fact that models nailed Sandy from so far out is going to exacerbate the model/forecast bashing this winter from many people..when snowstorms modeled from 96 or 120 hours+ don't pan out. When in reality, nothing will have changed from the past couple years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Difference between modeling a superstorm and a progressive snowstorm should be noted by all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Difference between modeling a superstorm and a progressive snowstorm should be noted by all. Yes, should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I feel like the fact that models nailed Sandy from so far out is going to exacerbate the model/forecast bashing this winter from many people..when snowstorms modeled from 96 or 120 hours+ don't pan out. When in reality, nothing will have changed from the past couple years. People weren't convinced by the first run showing it. It was the consistency and agreement that increased confidence early. That's not going to happen on the 168hr GFS blizzard because it will be gone on the next run and not on any other models. Regardless of what I wrote above, you're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Thankfully Killington does not need snow to the bottom in order to open. No doubt they will be open by 11/10 if not sooner. Once again we are all thankful for the Heavenly reverse stairway. The first run they open has it's base around 3300' Unfortunately it's only 600' or so of vertical, a slow chairlift, and fairly boring blue trail. In other words, see you there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 I feel like the fact that models nailed Sandy from so far out is going to exacerbate the model/forecast bashing this winter from many people..when snowstorms modeled from 96 or 120 hours+ don't pan out. When in reality, nothing will have changed from the past couple years. Every time guidance does well on a major system a week out or more, we generally see a period of unrealistic expectations from models afterward. Also a winter storm is much more sensitive to track than a storm like Sandy was. Sandy could have tracked 100 miles in either direction and still be a huge storm with high impact...the bullseye of the worst impact might change a bit, but nobody would get shut out. In a winter storm, a 50 mile track can be the difference between a major event and very little impact. It's this sensitivity to track in snow events that leads to myths such as "the models are always accurate when they show a lakes cutter but are terrible for coastals"...a track over PIT or DTW is still a rain storm for us, but would make a huge difference out there. We just don't usually follow the models shifting 50 miles when its going to be a lakes cutter anyway. At any rate, it should be fun to start tracking winter storms again...hopefully people keep realistic expectations though about what NWP is capable of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 I feel like the fact that models nailed Sandy from so far out is going to exacerbate the model/forecast bashing this winter from many people..when snowstorms modeled from 96 or 120 hours+ don't pan out. When in reality, nothing will have changed from the past couple years. Will made a good point. It's a different ballgame with winter storms vs something with 1000 miles wide gales. For fun, we should post the maps of a day 8 or 9 snow event on the euro op, and then verify. Unfortunately, some will fall in love with day 9 op runs again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 3-6 next week or maybe we can pull a 4-8 incher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2012 Author Share Posted November 1, 2012 3-6 next week or maybe we can pull a 4-8 incher? Like I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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