Mr Torchey Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Normal is going to feel like the arctic circle. Second half of November is a full blown torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Cold here...45 right now. BDR to finish October +3 or so....streak continues....let's hope this is the end though! Yes the no "warmth" kfalls worked well in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 ill take this for now A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Man I'm dismayed at what we could be in still 2 weeks from now. Long Range GFS stuff isn't making me feel all warm and fuzzy going into mid/later November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 12z gfs is a scraper but looks like its close enough and cold enough in NNE for some snow showers? Doesn't look very heavy though so maybe it just falls as rain unless you're at elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Man I'm dismayed at what we could be in still 2 weeks from now. Long Range GFS stuff isn't making me feel all warm and fuzzy going into mid/later November. unmitigated blowtorch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's early November, I don't really see an issue to worry, especially at 4000ft. I don't see a big AK trough and NNE can start to cash in with even a moderate -PNA come early December. I suppose there is time for the pattern to regress, but it looked ok to me, even if it's not all that cold. If we have weak -NAO ridging, we'll be fine come December. What you don't want is to have the ridge stay where it is and not head to the Aleutians. At least it shows signs of trying to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Lol at anyone using GFS for long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Lol at anyone using GFS for long range It doesn't matter what model you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Although odds increasing for something a little wintry perhaps in parts of NNE, but still nothing concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Although odds increasing for something a little wintry perhaps in parts of NNE, but still nothing concrete. Oh, it'll probably be concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Oh, it'll probably be concrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 powder freak is gonna have some nice upslope on them picnic tables fri pm thru sun per euro . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 Progressive flow also means OTS like euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 good the last thing people along the coast need is a storm ill sacrifice getting a storm to let people start to get back on there feet Progressive flow also means OTS like euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Lol at anyone using GFS for long range I figure its gotta be about the same as anything... lol at people who normally bash the GFS, choosing to ride it because it had a Sandy landfall in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's early November, I don't really see an issue to worry, especially at 4000ft. I don't see a big AK trough and NNE can start to cash in with even a moderate -PNA come early December. I suppose there is time for the pattern to regress, but it looked ok to me, even if it's not all that cold. If we have weak -NAO ridging, we'll be fine come December. What you don't want is to have the ridge stay where it is and not head to the Aleutians. At least it shows signs of trying to do that. My issue is snowmaking temps right now. I know Blizz is all set on a well-below normal, epic winter for the next 5 months, but outside of living in fantasy land, in the real world we still need temps below freezing to make snow. And not in December. I'm passed getting the picnic tables white at 4K, haha...now we are looking for sustained snowmaking temperatures. Think of it this way... a good chunk of the New England resorts have opening days scheduled for November 17-23. To reach those dates, requires say a 5 day period of -10C H85 temps in order to make enough snow top-to-bottom. If we can't have those temps, we need a longer, sustained period of at least 7-10 days with sub 0C H85 temps. See what I'm saying about not being thrilled looking forward... for ski resorts to open on time (we are less than 3 weeks out now for opening a lot of the major resorts, including Stowe), we're going to have to start to see sustained 20s showing up after the first week of November in that 1,000-4,000ft range. I just don't see it at this point... although the 12z GFS is worlds different again and does show some attempt at -10C 850mb temps into NNE in the long range. I just get scared when at the end of the ECM and GFS runs we are still just barely riding that 0C line at H85. 30-32F at 4,000ft isn't going to help anyone make snow to the base area elevations of New England ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 My issue is snowmaking temps right now. I know Blizz is all set on a well-below normal, epic winter for the next 5 months, but outside of living in fantasy land, in the real world we still need temps below freezing to make snow. And not in December. I'm passed getting the picnic tables white at 4K, haha...now we are looking for sustained snowmaking temperatures. Think of it this way... a good chunk of the New England resorts have opening days scheduled for November 17-23. To reach those dates, requires say a 5 day period of -10C H85 temps in order to make enough snow top-to-bottom. If we can't have those temps, we need a longer, sustained period of at least 7-10 days with sub 0C H85 temps. See what I'm saying about not being thrilled looking forward... for ski resorts to open on time (we are less than 3 weeks out now for opening a lot of the major resorts, including Stowe), we're going to have to start to see sustained 20s showing up after the first week of November in that 1,000-4,000ft range. I just don't see it at this point... although the 12z GFS is worlds different again and does show some attempt at -10C 850mb temps into NNE in the long range. I just get scared when at the end of the ECM and GFS runs we are still just barely riding that 0C line at H85. 30-32F at 4,000ft isn't going to help anyone make snow to the base area elevations of New England ski resorts. You're killing my ski buzz. I hadn't looked that far down the road but what you're saying sounds right. Ugh! But...realistically long as they're ready around Xmas isn't that when most of the business starts anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 You're killing my ski buzz. I hadn't looked that far down the road but what you're saying sounds right. Ugh! But...realistically long as they're ready around Xmas isn't that when most of the business starts anyway? Yeah I don't want to sound like a debbie downer, I'm just trying to look realistically at snowmaking potential (for one its my job, and two I'm curious). And I like to be optimistic but I've found being cautious is usually the way to go in November. I just really hope we have a decent start to the season because a lot of folks are gun shy after last season...if we start off warmer than normal with low snow, it can snowball (pun intended) through the season. Most of the business does happen from Xmas onward, but I think every ski area in the east wants to have a good start to the season to show some strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Yeah I don't want to sound like a debbie downer, I'm just trying to look realistically at snowmaking potential (for one its my job, and two I'm curious). And I like to be optimistic but I've found being cautious is usually the way to go in November. I just really hope we have a decent start to the season because a lot of folks are gun shy after last season...if we start off warmer than normal with low snow, it can snowball (pun intended) through the season. Most of the business does happen from Xmas onward, but I think every ski area in the east wants to have a good start to the season to show some strength. Yea. I totally agree with you PF. You aren't going to get sustained nights cold enough to make snow down to the base in almost any N/E resorts. No way anybody opens (really opens) before thanksgiving. The cavet being if we get a little dumpage that speeds the process up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Yea. I totally agree with you PF. You aren't going to get sustained nights cold enough to make snow down to the base in almost any N/E resorts. No way anybody opens (really opens) before thanksgiving. The cavet being if we get a little dumpage that speeds the process up. i don't think scott is a skier, so he doesn't always see things from the skiers perspective at first but yes a torchalicious mid november isn't the death knell for the CP of SNE regarding their annual snowfall, but it could be for mountains in NNE eager to launch opening day operations as planned. The mountain are pretty squeamish after last year's debacle and they don't need a dead ratter from nov 15 on to to dec 1, , to much up their opening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 I used to ski, just have not had the chance. I didn't think PF was coming at it from that angle. You might make some snow a few nights next week, but not so sure it will be a continuous effort going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Lots of babies will be born in 9 months or so along the east coast that's a given lol. Mostly cloudy feels like maybe 50 or so outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Worth nothing, but GFS looks like a marginal advisory snow event day 6 for the hills of SNE and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I used to ski, just have not had the chance. I didn't think PF was coming at it from that angle. You might make some snow a few nights next week, but not so sure it will be a continuous effort going forward. Yeah I should've been more clear in that first post, lol. Its definitely not an atrocious pattern, but it also doesn't look like "an early start to winter" like a hypster or two want you to believe. I really liked what we were seeing in early-mid October... now we've seen to have taken a step back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2012 Author Share Posted October 31, 2012 LOL at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 A cane and a snowstorm a week apart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Just looked at the Euro, why is PF worried, looks like cold and and upslope siggy event. Potential snowstorm to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 LOL at the GFS. Bring it on, Missed on sandy, Now lets get some snow up here, Extended has the 1st mention of snow this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 Lots of babies will be born in 9 months or so along the east coast that's a given lol. Mostly cloudy feels like maybe 50 or so outside? Or a lot of busy lawyers drafting divorce papers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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