toronto blizzard Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Y'all ready for an early season snowfall? I know you've been dropping hints about the winter from time to time but what are your thoughts on the late November into December time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Well it doesn't look like the type of pattern to get you in the holiday spirit It will probably feature some intrusions of colder air, and some signs of a possible coastal low near or after day10. I don't think it looks bad if expectations are reasonable. It's not a torch pattern, even if a storm moves briefly west of us. It may end up a little above in the 11-15 day, but the pattern for now is ok with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Y'all ready for an early season snowfall? We sure are. Interior SNE looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Y'all ready for an early season snowfall? as usual you were on this threat weeks ago. Biggest irony is Sandy being the 50/50 low. Just shaking my head what has and is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Double bunner morning in NNE...that first morning when you wake up and look outside and see white when you aren't expecting it. Light snow with vis at times down to 1sm or less. First accumulating snowfall at my house and at the village elevation of 750ft. Snow globe half-dollar sized dendrites continue to get ripped out of the clouds as they pass over the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Yeah I believe it, first flakes of the year in SNE. Outright snowing here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Outright snowing here right now. Nice dude. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice dude. Congrats. Had no clue it was going to happen haven't been watching the weather much. Timed out well as the kids were going to the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Still some flakes falling. Interesting radar signature out over the bay. We never got any accumulation...a few flakes hung around on the table tops for a minute or so but it's 36.5 so no stickaroo for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice messenger! Ripping out here, too. Solid moderate snow... may be getting close to 1/4sm +SN in this squall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Nice messenger! Ripping out here, too. Solid moderate snow... may be getting close to 1/4sm +SN in this squall now. That's a weee bit more impressive than my snow PF! We've still got flakes falling but it's just flurries now. Temp still dropping. Cool to see, I think this is the earliest day snow I can remember in quite some time...maybe ever here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 That's a weee bit more impressive than my snow PF! We've still got flakes falling but it's just flurries now. Temp still dropping. Cool to see, I think this is the earliest day snow I can remember in quite some time...maybe ever here. awesome. thought we might see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 as usual you were on this threat weeks ago. Biggest irony is Sandy being the 50/50 low. Just shaking my head what has and is going to happen. This was one of those situations where all of the long range indicators converged nicely for a solution that favored a nor'easter and the potential for a sufficient cold air source. I'll start looking down the road soon and try to sniff out something for us. I too am shaking my head at what possibly could happen with Sandy but also couldn't possibly make an accurate guess. Not only is the forecast picture low confidence but we've never had a situation quite like this. There will be a narrow zone of limited power outage potential where the precip is mainly in the form of rain (some mixing) and the wind isn't very strong. But the snow zone and the wind zone near the coast associated with this storm will produce more power outages for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 This was one of those situations where all of the long range indicators converged nicely for a solution that favored a nor'easter and the potential for a sufficient cold air source. I'll start looking down the road soon and try to sniff out something for us. I too am shaking my head at what possibly could happen with Sandy but also couldn't possibly make an accurate guess. Not only is the forecast picture low confidence but we've never had a situation quite like this. There will be a narrow zone of limited power outage potential where the precip is mainly in the form of rain (some mixing) and the wind isn't very strong. But the snow zone and the wind zone near the coast associated with this storm will produce more power outages for sure. Maybe we wait until this next AAM spike is done migrating north and perhaps we emerge out of the MJO COD into more favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Maybe we wait until this next AAM spike is done migrating north and perhaps we emerge out of the MJO COD into more favorable phases. Feeling more confident that the back half of November will see above normal temps in the East. Maybe like +3-5 averaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Feeling more confident that the back half of November will see above normal temps in the East. Maybe like +3-5 averaged. Pretty strong -PNA modeled, but New England seems like a wild card with the cold just over the border. You think that warm even up here? I'm thinking Novie is on the plus side here, but I didn't expect +3-5 here..maybe MA or SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Pretty strong -PNA modeled, but New England seems like a wild card with the cold just over the border. You think that warm even up here? I'm thinking Novie is on the plus side here, but I didn't expect +3-5 here..maybe MA or SE. I don't know your climo at all, so I should probably be quiet wrt specific anomalies, but P4-5-6 will be warm for the East in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't know your climo at all, so I should probably be quiet wrt specific anomalies, but P4-5-6 will be warm for the East in general. I don't have any forecasts out or anything, so your guess is just as valid. Those phases are warm for the east...I guess it just depends on how that Aleutian ridge manifests. Sometimes they want to leak cold at our latitude, but if it remains weaker or less of a poleward push, than I could see a warm pattern. The whole look is very Nina-like. It will be hella cold out west, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I know you've been dropping hints about the winter from time to time but what are your thoughts on the late November into December time frame? Sorry, I missed this post. This time frame will see things trend back to a colder state again from what I can tell. 1. General decline in solar activity after mid-month spike 2. MJO wave will propagate into phase 7-8-1 3. Lower/remote stratospheric wave breaking being modeled next couple of weeks will begin to perturb the vortex again 4. Analogs favor this period to trend cooler So I guess December 5th will be our next snowstorm threat, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Sorry, I missed this post. This time frame will see things trend back to a colder state again from what I can tell. 1. General decline in solar activity after mid-month spike 2. MJO wave will propagate into phase 7-8-1 3. Lower/remote stratospheric wave breaking being modeled next couple of weeks will begin to perturb the vortex again 4. Analogs favor this period to trend cooler So I guess December 5th will be our next snowstorm threat, haha. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 For Jerry from Facebook For Jerry, from facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 lol And while we joke around, it actually has some legitimacy too. Basically, we've been on a very predictable monthly frequency in the jet stream centered around the 27-day solar rotation and its interaction with the tropics (and vice versa). So we may potentially be looking at another threat in a month. As for terminology, I should say for "remote" that the source of the lower stratospheric warming will be in lower latitudes and will move poleward as it propagates around the NH. The actual wave break may be internal and not "remote" so I just wanted to clarify that which means stratospheric predictability will be a little tougher than usual. The disturbances that cause a potential vortex disruption will likely be below the radar at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I don't have any forecasts out or anything, so your guess is just as valid. Those phases are warm for the east...I guess it just depends on how that Aleutian ridge manifests. Sometimes they want to leak cold at our latitude, but if it remains weaker or less of a poleward push, than I could see a warm pattern. The whole look is very Nina-like. It will be hella cold out west, that's for sure. It appears that, for strictly New England, the "La Niña phases" of 3-6 get relatively warmer the deeper into the cold season we go. Of course, this orbit is coming during a time when we are transitioning to winter and things aren't as clear cut in terms of wavelengths. You can get a sense of this in the CPC maps too when you go through the seasonal periods SON, OND, NDJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 It appears that, for strictly New England, the "La Niña phases" of 3-6 get relatively warmer the deeper into the cold season we go. Of course, this orbit is coming during a time when we are transitioning to winter and things aren't as clear cut in terms of wavelengths. You can get a sense of this in the CPC maps too when you go through the seasonal periods SON, OND, NDJ. Oh yeah for sure and it makes sense as wavelengths broaden. I also think that Aleutian ridge may not be able to get the cold in here for now as wavelengths are adjusting and snow pack in srn Canada is building. However, it sometimes like to sneak in here and may cause some sort of CAD signal if we have lows approaching from the south. So while I think November may edge warmer than normal...I just don't know by how much. I think this area would probably do ok a month or two from now with this pattern, but I'm just speculating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Oh yeah for sure and it makes sense as wavelengths broaden. I also think that Aleutian ridge may not be able to get the cold in here for now as wavelengths are adjusting and snow pack in srn Canada is building. However, it sometimes like to sneak in here and may cause some sort of CAD signal if we have lows approaching from the south. So while I think November may edge warmer than normal...I just don't know by how much. I think this area would probably do ok a month or two from now with this pattern, but I'm just speculating. I agree with what you are saying. This pattern in the next 2 weeks seems like a case where you will get a day or two of good positive departures but the rest are closer to normal (in a weekly period). You are right that this pattern wouldn't be that bad for you guys in the winter and the availability of the cold air is certainly key. The trough may revisit our area toward the end of the month / early December so I say enjoy the November break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 pretty cold day for early november standars. work'd outside blowing leaves out of grandparents gutters in wakefield,ma. 44 for high 42 when i was leaving at 230pm. Cold nite in store. I'd love to see some flakes wednite out here along 128 N of boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 37.1 for my high today. First high in the 30s since March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 37 right now at UConn, feels cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 40.1 here for the high. Already 34.1 currently. Thinking 22ish tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 31.2F here attm 22 sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.