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Late October/Early November disco and banter thread


CoastalWx

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Thanks Scott. It looked like maybe GOAK ridge near the end of the Euro which of course is susceptible to large swings. Maybe having a -NAO will help mitigate the torch some too.

I should have also specified that I was referring to the ensembles. They do have a -NAO, but it doesn't seem to want to stay stationary for too long. It is possible it may be enough for a CAD signal down the road, but that doesn't mean much here this time of year.

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Moving right along ...

The last several cycles of GFS and Euro operational runs have been flagging some kind of cold climo system for the late middle or early extended range. The signal is not overwhelming, but there is some teleconnector support in that the NAO remains fairly heavily depressed, and the PNA (according to both agencies) will rise to a little over neutral SD. Again, not overwhelming, but having trans-continental waves tending to bottom out in the OV in route to the MA is not a bad fit just the same; therefore, gives a nod to these operational suggestions.

Can't insert files from here, and this interface doesn't recognize clip-board pasting; perhaps later this evening unless someone else want to chime in and provide.

Also, I am noticing a timing that might bring some significant cold nearing the end of the month - perhaps more later.

Oh - sorry. Didn't realize. sure

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What a cold euro run. It's going to feel like -20 deps after what we've been in.

Yeah the ensembles are warmer but did cool off.....maybe the -NAO can try to help. Models try to warm afterwards, but still somewhat of a ridge near Greenland to perhaps try and fight off some of it. Still a big -PNA in the extended which wants to keep the east warmer.

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Drove from Bedford home last night around 8. One of the better tstorms of the year nailed me on 128. Scary driving but spectacular lightning nonetheless.

Euro looks cold. No big vortex in ak on ensembles. Pattern evolving but we must be patient. For me that's fine because realistic snow chances are still a month away typically.

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Drove from Bedford home last night around 8. One of the better tstorms of the year nailed me in 128. Scary driving but spectacular lightning nonetheless.

Euro looks cold. No big vortex in ak on ensembles. Pattern evolving but we must be patient. For me that's fine because mreqlistic snow chances are still a month away typically.

We need to get ridging further east from Kamchatka area because that's teleconnecting to a -PNA in the long range beyond the euro op. But for now, I won't complain in early November. It probably would spread out to a more gradient pattern in the winter anyways.

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Drove from Bedford home last night around 8. One of the better tstorms of the year nailed me on 128. Scary driving but spectacular lightning nonetheless.

Euro looks cold. No big vortex in ak on ensembles. Pattern evolving but we must be patient. For me that's fine because realistic snow chances are still a month away typically.

Do you work out of the Bedford VA at all?

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