Tropopause_Fold Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Try the PSU BUFKIT site. oh yeah...duh. totally forgot about that one after it had some hiccups a year or so ago i stopped using it. the warehouse site isn't updating regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sounds like some fun model runs this morning, heading over to help people with debris removal thankfully the weather is cooperating. Have a great weekend everyone, one of the many scenes here from Fairfield Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Where do we get lenticular clouds from in nwct? Catskills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Really? They're very well protected... it's almost impossible to get decent waves/swells in there. New London better Mystic worse but yeah what I was was saying was they would be more impacted by swell flow than BDR HVN. I wonder too after seeing Sandy Point practically eroded away about Bluff Point CT in future storms. Sandy Point was their natural breakwater from direct Ocean impacts. It is going to be an interesting this winter with basically a whole new ocean floor and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Good Saturday morning... hey if you have some work to do on the weekend, at least its snowing, right? Snowing pretty good right now. First accumulating snow to the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 00Z Euro is actually interesting for us here in the Berkshires. While it's not an all snow event verbatim, the deformation feature may actually help to dynamically cool the atmosphere to the point where wet snow may fall and accumulate. The Euro is picking up on this better than the GFS. This is how we get early season snows without a very cold airmass like the one we had on 10/29/11. Notice the cooling showing up at 850 mb NW of the low due to the deformation zone and its associated dynamic cooling from stronger ascent and precipitation generation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Good Saturday morning... hey if you have some work to do on the weekend, at least its snowing, right? Snowing pretty good right now. First accumulating snow to the base. Same thing here in Lake Effect Country Nice coating on the ground at 33, looks like snow showers will continue for another day or two with solid NW flow of the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Kevin's on fire the past 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks to me like the Euro phases too early. You really want the storm to be bombing just off the shore with strengthening frontogenesis and strong synoptic scale lift as the storm gets going. The early phase and cutting off results in somewhat more meh synoptic scale lift and as a result the 700-850mb level doesn't dynamically cool fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 the trends on the OP's in the last 24 hours def. favor more wintry weather for new england than yesterday as i recall. wether that's due to yesterday's 12z euro op spooking everyone in new england to vt/can border, i think Kev or ORH to manchester, nh is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Kevin's on fire the past 2 weeks. he is as long as the kfs weighs various met texts/ideas/model runs unbiasedly combines them with his own (with a correct weighting) 99/1 bias , the kfs could dominate kfs is on fire and i wanna know when the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 those 582 dm heights on d 10 euro look distrubing for N mtns. i'd like to know HM's thoughts for when the E conus potential torch at day 10...may wind down for extended period (and not be transient) (late nov?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Was there an under-the-radar upgrade of the NOGAPS model ?! holy crap! The 00z AND 06z show remarkable continuity and both suggest a whopper winter storm/Nor'easter for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Was there an under-the-radar upgrade of the NOGAPS model ?! holy crap! The 00z AND 06z show remarkable continuity and both suggest a whopper winter storm/Nor'easter for SNE is the modeled path likely in your opinion john, seems the look of a "NJ model low" or even a "DE" model low tucked in.....were or are still in favor over the further east nogaps path. i want to know if climatolgically the nogaps track is supported because to me it seems like storms seem to take a few popular paths (sure none are exactly the same) but it seems there are several path's of "least resistance" that LP /noreasters take " and i could be off in the premise ....but wanted to know if you understand what i'm saying and agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Om goodness at that Cocknadian! This may just be the autumn and winter of the Phase. You know ... that may also be another characteristic about the new paradigm Will and I were once discussing, how back (really) toward the middle /end of August we have tendencies for 90W L/W axis refits, and that is ... perhaps wave frequencies are more constructive as opposed to deconstructively interfering. Interesting... Either way, the blend of the "dependable GGEM/NOGAPS 00z runs bomb on down to 973mb with choking snow for interior SNE - rain by Ray. Hey...Raymond, "Rain Man" we should just start blithely and annoyingly referring to Ray as Rain Man. Anyway, at this time of year, any snow anywhere is pretty lucky. In this case, it's yet another hook-and-latter scenario, and there for the cyclone backs into the cold while bombing, as opposed to maturing on a SW-NE trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Uh oh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Okay, the Euro would start as snow but notice some differencec here, notably ... timing. The timing of the Euro phases faster, so that the capture maximization of intensity happens quicker down along the MA as opposed to a latter capture and bombogen rate up along or just off CC. That profoundly differentiates the handling of the thermal fields, and ultimately ... ptype, during the event. With no run really showing much statice +PP N of the area, there isn't really a way (particularly over a bare ground and still relatively warm ocean) to hold marginal cold in place. Either camp is right within its own framework, but over the long haul, common sense, based in no small part on performance/verification results, should bias one justifiably toward the Euro. Haven't seen the GFS or their respective ensemble means but going to do that now. Also - just a quickie. The Day 10 GGEM/Euro both show another appropriately times cold trough incursion into the TV while there is yet another interval of TC potential approaching the Bahamas. I just found that interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ill be in albany newyork monday morning threw friday night I would guess more interesting there then here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 For now ... I'd go with a 00z Euro/06z GFS blend to fit in best with climo for a D4-5, then as it gets into nearer terms mold it either way. This offers some early event snow for the interior els, with cat's paws on windshields elsewhere, then everyone is raining clear to the Berk's by the time the system finds its greatest intensity. More than anything else, it should be more looked at as encouraging that we are now just after H. Eve and have 2 important events on the EC. Without the presence of Sandy that interval was fraught with coastal potential - Sandy obfuscates that some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ill be in albany newyork monday morning threw friday night I would guess more interesting there then here Your going from one valley to another so don't get your hopes up. The mountains N & W of Albany could be interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 still further from the coast Your going from one valley to another so don't get your hopes up. The mountains N & W of Albany could be interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 there needs to be people going out today and warning people along the coast that dont have power that another storm could be coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Colder GFS run http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F03%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=102&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z gfs gets down to 982mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12Z GFS looks colder and would probably be a partially snow event verbatim for the hardest hit Sandy areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z gfs congrats philly (and sw burbs)? esp catskills/ pocanos over to the tactonics/ berks /SVT (greens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Gfs starts potentially as snow in many areas. Plows low into the heart of sne so everyone flips to liquid but at least there's some guidance that wants a snow bomb not too far away from ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Gfs starts potentially as snow in many areas. Plows low into the heart of sne so everyone flips to liquid but at least there's some guidance that wants a snow bomb not too far away from ne. another capture with trop moisture involved? pretty bad scenario for storm ravaged coast on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks like 12z euro from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Also, what shouldn't be lost is the 1032 high in western Canada that will likely spread east d 6 and beyond. The "torch" coming in the d7-10 period may be muted significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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