moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Fun to have our first storm with mild (no pun intended) potential to bring a little snow to SNE. As far as Scott (PF) goes, no need to fret. If he doesn't cash in here, he will soon enough. Also, it's fun how once we hit November, the climatological odds of getting snow increase measurably on a daily basis. So,sit tight boys and girls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 My forecast from BOX clearly (as it should) is playing the most likely scenario, i.e., mostly rain; Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Cold with highs in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 40 percent. Wednesday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Thursday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Cold with highs around 40. Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 40 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 MPM is back. QPF for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 06z GEFS are way east...east of the EC FWIW. You don't want it too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 MPM is back. QPF for all And just like that, highest QPF probs are east of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The Mods: Please Delete My Account thread in OT from Quincy is quite hilarious. From temper tantrum to great discussion on NHC warning decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 MPM is back. QPF for all LOL--I'm making it my intent to not look at qpf maps this year. Meanwhile, taking my daughter to Huskyland and visiting UConn. She's applied for the fall, but hasn't seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 And just like that, highest QPF probs are east of him. Lol Phasing too quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Lol Phasing too quickly? Nah, just a little east of ideal for him. It's possible it may come closer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Loving the Euro ens for a nice 5-10 or 6-12 incher for the hills. Hard to believe this is legit. Sadly the torch next week will wipe it all out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Last day of leaves for the season. Earliest ever done in history. Oaks 100% bare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Last day of leaves for the season. Earliest ever done in history. Oaks 100% bare Sandy too care of a lot of mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 euro is a fairly significant event. damaging wind along the coast and by the looks of it a good dump of snow for the Berks. and looking at the ec ens mean, i'd think there are some members west like the op so it may have some legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 euro is a fairly significant event. damaging wind along the coast and by the looks of it a good dump of snow for the Berks. and looking at the ec ens mean, i'd think there are some members west like the op so it may have some legs. Really? Just looking at the 850s it looks a bit too warm to me. Close though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Really? Just looking at the 850s it looks a bit too warm to me. Close though. So no run of the mill nor'easter like someone Tweeted yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 And we are back to the daily congrats, Congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Really? Just looking at the 850s it looks a bit too warm to me. Close though. hmmm...i'll have to go back and look again. i thought it looked cold enough until pretty late in the game for them. especially NW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 So no run of the mill nor'easter like someone Tweeted yesterday? why in person are you so easy to get a long with but on the interwebs so annoying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 So no run of the mill nor'easter like someone Tweeted yesterday? Looks pretty run-of-the-mill to me. If a stronger Euro-esque solution verifies maybe something more exciting but for the most part I think the cast majority of SNEers will see a meh rainstorm on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 why in person are you so easy to get a long with but on the interwebs so annoying? Now that he's old and 40 he's becoming even more crotchety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Now that he's old and 40 he's becoming even more crotchety. i don't know if he'll last the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks pretty run-of-the-mill to me. If a stronger Euro-esque solution verifies maybe something more exciting but for the most part I think the cast majority of SNEers will see a meh rainstorm on Wednesday. i don't see how a lot of us don't see snow from this ESP with Gefs and Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 i don't see how a lot of us don't see snow from this ESP with Gefs and Euro ens I can think of about a million different ways we don't. It's possible we'll see some but we will need to thread the needle. A bit more wiggle room for the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills but nothing really jumps out at me as too exciting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks pretty run-of-the-mill to me. If a stronger Euro-esque solution verifies maybe something more exciting but for the most part I think the cast majority of SNEers will see a meh rainstorm on Wednesday. I made a crude animated GIF of Euro surface wind depiction which has proven to be underdone. This depicts a solid 24 hour long fetch which will directly impact the NJ coast. this is a wave making machine depicted. Certainly in prior years this would be run of the mill, but with the exposure now to Ocean flooding extreme, this depiction would be very severe to already devastated shoreline communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah especially on the NJ shore. I'm not really worried about the Sound to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah especially on the NJ shore. I'm not really worried about the Sound to be honest. Yea tides are low, direct Ocean exposures have to worry, seas forecast near 10 feet with onshore component for eroded dune areas in areas where recovery and restoration projects are in place = not good. I would imagine the areas nearest BI Sound such as Mystic to New London would be more prone to wave action and energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 sucks with so much of the NWS products being hampered by the storm. bufkit files not easy to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yea tides are low, direct Ocean exposures have to worry, seas forecast near 10 feet with onshore component for eroded dune areas in areas where recovery and restoration projects are in place = not good. I would imagine the areas nearest BI Sound such as Mystic to New London would be more prone to wave action and energy. Really? They're very well protected... it's almost impossible to get decent waves/swells in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 sucks with so much of the NWS products being hampered by the storm. bufkit files not easy to find. Try the PSU BUFKIT site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Something I have been following since Sandy. Tidal departures from Montauk to the Cape have stayed above normal by a 1/2 foot to a foot. LI Sound and NJ NY levels have for the most part returned to normal. I do not know the reason, its odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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