HM Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The thing to take notice of mid-month when Arctic Air drops into the NW CONUS and tornado outbreaks become a real possibility in the mid-section, is that there isn't an Alaskan Vortex. While the pattern becomes much warmer, the source is not from that awful feature that plagued us last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 monday is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The thing to take notice of mid-month when Arctic Air drops into the NW CONUS and tornado outbreaks become a real possibility in the mid-section, is that there isn't an Alaskan Vortex. While the pattern becomes much warmer, the source is not from that awful feature that plagued us last winter. The biggest factor we have going towards a positive winter, Hope is does not re appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 monday is cold. okay - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 CMC was a frigid run but perhaps too far E with the cyclones - hooks it back in and gets d.e.m. pretty good with an pre-td special Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The thing to take notice of mid-month when Arctic Air drops into the NW CONUS and tornado outbreaks become a real possibility in the mid-section, is that there isn't an Alaskan Vortex. While the pattern becomes much warmer, the source is not from that awful feature that plagued us last winter. strongly hinted Indian Summer regardless of the source. I'd like to see the ensemble mean step off the -NAO throttle a bit more than they are to allow those eastern CONUS heights to bounce back so much. Other than that, there is some relaxation in the NAO overall, so recovery appears likely. How much? Given the 30 month mean (or whatever the hell it was/is) to be above normal at least excuse imaginable ... I'm going to go ahead and cave to one way or the other having the anomaly distribution on the + side of neutral - ha. May not be entirely scientific, but it's tough to knock consistency. There is a split in the AO domains wrt to it's younger siblings, the EPO and NAO. The AO has a pretty notable rise to about +1 or +1.5 SD, while these 60 and 70N bands are only elevating some - that tells me that the AO is likely the culprit in the latter's tendency to rise, in that they share some domain space. Point being ... EPO and NAO have block "tendency" maintained through period. Interesting. Despite a period of positive AO. That also appears transient btw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The biggest factor we have going towards a positive winter, Hope is does not re appear I'm pretty sure we discussed this last year but fwiw - while bad in general to have that feature, because the standard R-wave, wave length tends to mean bad news for the E.C. of N/A ... yadda yadda yadda, there are times when the standard model breaks down and yields to local time scale perturbations. That's dirty talk for scenarios when the wave lengths shorten a tad. Late Feb - early Apr can benefit from that vortex. But even in the heart of the cold season it doesn't absolutely preclude a decent event. example, if the EPO is positive (vortex from hell) and the NAO is tanked, you can pile up cold into Onatrio and bleed it for SWFE... Ice storms also increase in frequency. It's just that last winter, not only was there a vortex from hell, but the NAO went to hell and fried along with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yikes, Son of Sandy lives on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yikes, Son of Sandy lives on the euro. timeframe and track? For once I'm rooting against a storm. GFS solution doesnt surprise me this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Gusts to 75 for all on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Gusts to 75 for all on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yikes, Son of Sandy lives on the euro. Yup. That trough is negative from the Carolina's to Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Enjoy the snow, its the only snow you've got... I am currently enjoying the view out the window very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm pretty sure we discussed this last year but fwiw - while bad in general to have that feature, because the standard R-wave, wave length tends to mean bad news for the E.C. of N/A ... yadda yadda yadda, there are times when the standard model breaks down and yields to local time scale perturbations. That's dirty talk for scenarios when the wave lengths shorten a tad. Late Feb - early Apr can benefit from that vortex. But even in the heart of the cold season it doesn't absolutely preclude a decent event. example, if the EPO is positive (vortex from hell) and the NAO is tanked, you can pile up cold into Onatrio and bleed it for SWFE... Ice storms also increase in frequency. It's just that last winter, not only was there a vortex from hell, but the NAO went to hell and fried all with it! Yeah, The +NAO certainly did not help with the vortex over AK for the Northeast, If it does appear, Hopefully it stays far enough west and the Nao is somewhat negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 timeframe and track? For once I'm rooting against a storm. GFS solution doesnt surprise me this far out though. Wednesday night into Thursday, but it doesn't seem extremely powerful luckily...but the track sux for those already hit in terms of cleaning up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yikes, Son of Sandy lives on the euro. Yeah, I joked about that in that the GFS is up to something in the la-la range too... right - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Euro next weeks storm......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Congrats to all @BigJoeBastardi: Weatherbell tolling l on this matter seen in map below. First one went out to clients yesterday http://t.co/2DaT4Uiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Towns need time to get bulldozers in and make makeshift barriers with sand or debris anything to stop coastal flooding, this is just to soon. The couple seawalls that were here are destroyed along with most of the dunes, seeing video of complete destruction of dunes on long island and the jersey shore I just wish this thing would not happen period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I really hope the euro does not verify everyone to the south really does not need that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 For snow purposes the two shortwaves would have to have perfect timing. If the southern s/w goes too fast no storm, if its too slow it will overphase like 12z Euro and be a blowtorch since it would be pulled inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Congrats to all @BigJoeBastardi: Weatherbell tolling l on this matter seen in map below. First one went out to clients yesterday http://t.co/2DaT4Uiw Going to the store now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Powderfreak meltdown that Kevin predicted incoming if Euro verifies. They will be using the tarps on their slopes as a water slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Powderfreak meltdown that Kevin predicted incoming if Euro verifies. They will be using the tarps on their slopes as a water slide. Ride the rapids to the base lodge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Powderfreak meltdown that Kevin predicted incoming if Euro verifies. They will be using the tarps on their slopes as a water slide. lol damnit Is it that warm and wet? Guess I'll just have to enjoy the snow over the next few days. Never a dull moment at ski resorts in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Powderfreak meltdown that Kevin predicted incoming if Euro verifies. They will be using the tarps on their slopes as a water slide. Yeah he's very very close to losing it. His posts have take on a different tone. At least give it till Dec1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 JB's snowfall map would bust horribly if the Euro verifies verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 JB's snowfall map would bust horribly if the Euro verifies verbatim Euro is King and JB is the Jester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah he's very very close to losing it. His posts have take on a different tone. At least give it till Dec1 If it's 12/1 and still no snow for Stowe, I think freak would admit that he'd place his head in a ski lift bullwheel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah he's very very close to losing it. His posts have take on a different tone. At least give it till Dec1 lol... well yeah I'm in one climate zone north so I have my freakouts if its not snowing by the end of November. Most of you in SNE have your biggest melt downs about a month later in December. It goes with climo... if its not snowing by mid/late December I've already given up while you guys are just starting your melt downs. I know if its December 15th with no real snow or storms on the horizon, the SNE weenies will start to lose it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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