Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 First bona fide cool season coastal structure heading in and there are huge problems if folks want snow. First one, this is one of those annoying systems that can't seem to integrate QP into the cold side of closed circulation - there are 2 ways to compensate for that deliberate face smack to snow wanters (haha): 1) More N-stream involvement/phasing; not out of the cards entirely so have to monitor that. In this version, dynamics get involved and a marginal scenario gets windier and whiter as the troposphere turns over. 2) Just a deeper layer of in situ /antecedent cold thickness available to arriving cyclone. ...we definitely are marginal at best with #2 and heading toward a quick erode given to the bevvy of solutions as a mean. The ocean is warm at this time of year; without more polar +PP N the coastal boundary will zip out to ALB with a good bit of rapidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Lol weenies. Thanks Happy birthday neighbor with many more happy returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Mountains are white down to 2,800ft or so this morning. Several more upslope inches in the forecast through the weekend with lowering snow levels. Hopefully we can get some snow showers down in town, too. Loving the upslope potential in the synoptics for middle/end of next week... early season is a climo favored time for big upslope events, too. Usually some more available moisture, stronger low pressure systems, steep low level lapse rates, etc BTV is sensing the signal, too...these storms can easily turn from a 1-3" synoptic event to 12"+ if the storm can find away to get itself to CAR/FVE area. FOR THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY MID/LATE WEEK...REGION WILL SEE AMPLE QPF PINWHEEL INTO AREA AS CIRCULATION WILL BE EASTERLY FROM THE ATLANTIC. GOOD CHANCE FOR HIR ELEV TO SEE -SW/-RW MIX INITIALLY WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND AS LOW LIFTS N AND E OF THE AREA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD...CAA WILL BRING -SW WITH LIGHT ACCUM POSSIBLE. WNW FLOW COULD BRING EVEN MORE TO WESTERN FACING SLOPES. THIS WILL PROMPT WATCHING. Killington is looking to start snowmaking tonight and reopen as soon as sunday if possible for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Killington is looking to start snowmaking tonight and reopen as soon as sunday if possible for the season. Yeah I'd bet they'll be able to get that upper program open quickly. Shouldn't take long to cover 600 verts of high elevation terrain with the temps coming in. We are planning to start making snow tonight and should get a really good period of run-time until whatever happens with that mid-week storm. Sunday and Monday nights look really cold with -10C H85 air moving through... teens at the summit and 20s at the base. Next weekend looks warm so this week will be the time to really crank it out, then maybe put like 5 miles of tarp on all of it for that big warm up around Veterans Day weekend Scheduled opening is two weeks from tomorrow... getting pretty excited to go back to my winter life of skiing, measuring snow and monitoring weather 24/7 at the mountain. Total winter immersion for 5+ months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Btw, two runs in a row of GFS dingle-berry range suggest another tropical involvement scenario. Can you imagine if that happened like that twice in the same autumn. I think there was a year in the mid 1950s that had TC two weeks apart - but specifically, if there were two "hook" scenarios in the same year. jesus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Btw, two runs in a row of GFS dingle-berry range suggest another tropical involvement scenario. Can you imagine if that happened like that twice in the same autumn. I think there was a year in the mid 1950s that had TC two weeks apart - but specifically, if there were two "hook" scenarios in the same year. jesus 1954 had Carol, Edna, and Hazel all in the same season. The first two were the big ones up in New England...Hazel more of a Mid-Atlantic dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 1954 had Carol, Edna, and Hazel all in the same season. The first two were the big ones up in New England...Hazel more of a Mid-Atlantic dead. Ha hahaha - meant "Mid-Atlantic deal", I enjoyed the Freudian slip - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah, I mentioned this yesterday ...and still think it should be the focus rather than snow vs rain ...POTENTIAL FOR NOR'EASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/02 ECMWF AND ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST NO REST FOR THE WEARY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES, WITH A CONTINUED HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW AND SUPPRESSED POLAR JET ALLOWING FOR SHARP BAROCLINICITY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS. THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WOULD BE A MORE TYPICAL NOR'EASTER, WITH THE SAME SET OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTING ITS GENESIS AT DAYS 5 AND 6 AS WITH THIS WEEK'S SPRAWLING HYBRID STORM: THE ECMWF, ECENS MEAN, GEFS MEAN, GEM GLOBAL, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL, AS ALWAYS, BE CRITICAL TO LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE. ANY SYSTEM THAT PRODUCES SIGNIFICANT WIND AND PRECIPITATION IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS OF NOTE IN LIGHT OF THE CONTINUED RECOVERY FROM SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL TRANSFORMATION. UNLIKE EARLIER THIS WEEK, THE ENTIRE NATION IS VULNERABLE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER THIS FORECAST, WITH A FOCUSED, ENERGETIC POLAR FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. FURTHERMORE, AN ARCTIC HIGH IS LIKELY TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY DAY 7, WITH ITS OWN ATTENDANT UPSLOPE SNOWS AND LOW TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Lol weenies. Thanks Happy BIG winter en route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z Gfs OTS......yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z Gfs OTS......yawn Cutoff from the main flow due to strong jet over the northern tier. No phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z Gfs OTS......yawn Toss. Not that I'm expecting any snow whatsoever from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Toss. Not that I'm expecting any snow whatsoever from this. Not down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Cutoff from the main flow due to strong jet over the northern tier. No phasing. It was pretty stretched out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Toss. Not that I'm expecting any snow whatsoever from this. I'm not expecting any either, but if was going to happen the OTS run was about the best we could've hoped for at this range. The previous phased solutions are slam dunk rain for almost everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I'm not expecting any either, but if was going to happen the OTS run was about the best we could've hoped for at this range. The previous phased solutions are slam dunk rain for almost everyone. Pretty much a catch 22, Stronger phase it cuts and rains, Weaker or no phase light precip or a miss, No high to the north to lock in what little cold is available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 It was pretty stretched out The flow over the northern tier is fast so it is possible. However, it's probably a good idea to see if the 12z guidance shifts this way. I bet the people down in NYC are probably hoping for it. The hype already is kind of ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Pretty much a catch 22, Stronger phase it cuts and rains, Weaker or no phase light precip or a miss, No high to the north to lock in what little cold is available Yep. NE MA and Maine might be able to pull it off with the hook scenario if the coastal stayed pretty far offshore and the northern stream could amplify enough to pull it back late in the game. For here, not so much, but whatever it's early Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I think we all know the OTS option is not there. It either hits with snow or damaging winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The flow over the northern tier is fast so it is possible. However, it's probably a good idea to see if the 12z guidance shifts this way. I bet the people down in NYC are probably hoping for it. The hype already is kind of ridiculous. For there sake it would be good if it missed, They are pretty much on edge after the last one and justifiable being this fresh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I think we all know the OTS option is not there. It either hits with snow or damaging winds Damaging winds i would agree on possibly, Snow looks like it would be confined to the higher up areas, Cold is marginable at best, Nothing really to lock it in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The 12z GGEM is further east over Nova Scotia. 12z UKMET has 994mb low over Eastern LI at 144hr. 12z runs so far, seem faster with the GOA low into West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Damaging winds i would agree on possibly, Snow looks like it would be confined to the higher up areas, Cold is marginable at best, Nothing really to lock it in place With Euro ens locking on a coastal track with cold air , snow is very possible even to the coast, as HM and Scooter have mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yep. NE MA and Maine might be able to pull it off with the hook scenario if the coastal stayed pretty far offshore and the northern stream could amplify enough to pull it back late in the game. For here, not so much, but whatever it's early Nov. Exactly. Three weeks from now I might hurtle myself off Bondcliff, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 With Euro ens locking on a coastal track with cold air , snow is very possible even to the coast, as HM and Scooter have mentioned I did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 lot's of solutions on the table still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 With Euro ens locking on a coastal track with cold air , snow is very possible even to the coast, as HM and Scooter have mentioned Anythings possible, But this far out, I don't think anything is a lock, Euro or not, And the coast may be the last place i would lock any snow in this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I did? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Think Blizzy has had too much birthday bourbon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 CMC was a frigid run but perhaps too far E with the cyclones - hooks it back in and gets d.e.m. pretty good with an pre-td special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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