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Late October/Early November disco and banter thread


CoastalWx

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Mid November torch on track and on time, funny how the cold is always delayed on models but true warmth is right on schedule. Anyhow, a chilly few days coming will feel Autumnal, but thankfully clouds last night provided some warmth for those without power or a means to heat there home.

Question is, when does the cold come after a potential toasty torchvember, hopefully in time for Thanksgiving.

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Didn't they say they are taking the long term AFD and forecasts out of the local office hands and having HPC do long term? I'd be willing to bet this is the beginning of that and they just aren't saying it

BOX is still issuing their own discussions (including the long term section). This morning's 7:08 AM discussion had all the usual sections.

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Mid November torch on track and on time, funny how the cold is always delayed on models but true warmth is right on schedule. Anyhow, a chilly few days coming will feel Autumnal, but thankfully clouds last night provided some warmth for those without power or a means to heat there home.

Question is, when does the cold come after a potential toasty torchvember, hopefully in time for Thanksgiving.

Yeah unfortunately for those who love cold and snowy weather...this is the new regime. One can argue all they want about the reasons for the warmth, but this is just one month after another of +2 +3 even +5 and +7 last winter. The cold shots that are advertised seem to always come in modified and last shorter than people thought. 7 days out it seems models and forecasts always bust on the warmner side. Even for next week I can se that happening already...What is it now 18 of the last 20 months have been well above normal here. What are the statistical odds that that is just chance. +3.8 for October in the bank now...and now after a few days of slightly below temps (which everyone is making a big deal over because it just does not happen that much anymore) and then we are looking down the barrel of an anomalously warm November as well.

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Noob question, during Sandy most were looking at 950 winds, here you attached 850 winds, does the type of storm make a difference at what level you look at?

Euro doesn't put out 950 winds in its commonly accessible products. The 950 winds posted in Sandy were probably NAM/GFS model soundings viewed in bufkit or similar.

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Mountains are white down to 2,800ft or so this morning. Several more upslope inches in the forecast through the weekend with lowering snow levels. Hopefully we can get some snow showers down in town, too.

Loving the upslope potential in the synoptics for middle/end of next week... early season is a climo favored time for big upslope events, too. Usually some more available moisture, stronger low pressure systems, steep low level lapse rates, etc

BTV is sensing the signal, too...these storms can easily turn from a 1-3" synoptic event to 12"+ if the storm can find away to get itself to CAR/FVE area.

FOR THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY MID/LATE

WEEK...REGION WILL SEE AMPLE QPF PINWHEEL INTO AREA AS

CIRCULATION WILL BE EASTERLY FROM THE ATLANTIC. GOOD CHANCE FOR

HIR ELEV TO SEE -SW/-RW MIX INITIALLY WITH RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND

AS LOW LIFTS N AND E OF THE AREA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD...CAA

WILL BRING -SW WITH LIGHT ACCUM POSSIBLE. WNW FLOW COULD BRING

EVEN MORE TO WESTERN FACING SLOPES. THIS WILL PROMPT

WATCHING.

hotdog.gif

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