CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The pattern continues to feature riding over NE Siberia and gradually pushing towards the Aleutians with -NAO blocking. It appears at some point next week, parts of NNE could turn right...perhaps further south if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 How do the euro ensembles look in the 11-15 day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 How do the euro ensembles look in the 11-15 day? Sort of meh. Still -PNA through the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 It's not bad if something can be timed with blocking, but I think we risk inside runners too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 It's not bad if something can be timed with blocking, but I think we risk inside runners too. Overall snow cover and pattern evolution look pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Overall snow cover and pattern evolution look pretty good to me. Yeah when you look at the pattern compared to last November, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Well, models are actually close to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Well, models are actually close to something. A snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 A snowstorm? I will say just a low offshore for now. I do think it's something to watch for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Winter is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfenn1117 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Lots of clearing early....SPC has mentioned severe possibility. Still a low concern for now? Lots of people will be outside today cleaning up and would hate to see more issues today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I will say just a low offshore for now. I do think it's something to watch for this area. 12z GFS looking ok for a week out... next week could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I wonder if Sandy can bring New England some upslope snowfall in N.NH and N.VT... remnants of Sandy as it drifts towards the Maritimes/northern ME by later this week and this weekend, creates a fairly long-duration NW flow with residual moisture and marginally cold temperatures. Sandy could result in snow accumulations later this week and weekend across higher terrain in the upslope region...? Friday evening: Saturday morning: Saturday afternoon... Saturday night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Not an ideal pattern as the ridge out west is kind of progressive, but something to keep a partial eye on over the next two days I guess. Maybe wavelengths are short enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 euro says watch tuesday going forward as well. HM at least 5 days ago called for a storm system with good snow chances for us in this time frame. so i wouldn't bet against it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Moving right along ... The last several cycles of GFS and Euro operational runs have been flagging some kind of cold climo system for the late middle or early extended range. The signal is not overwhelming, but there is some teleconnector support in that the NAO remains fairly heavily depressed, and the PNA (according to both agencies) will rise to a little over neutral SD. Again, not overwhelming, but having trans-continental waves tending to bottom out in the OV in route to the MA is not a bad fit just the same; therefore, gives a nod to these operational suggestions. Can't insert files from here, and this interface doesn't recognize clip-board pasting; perhaps later this evening unless someone else want to chime in and provide. Also, I am noticing a timing that might bring some significant cold nearing the end of the month - perhaps more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 With 8mil with out power, not the time for cold. PF enjoy yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Moving right along ... The last several cycles of GFS and Euro operational runs have been flagging some kind of cold climo system for the late middle or early extended range. The signal is not overwhelming, but there is some teleconnector support in that the NAO remains fairly heavily depressed, and the PNA (according to both agencies) will rise to a little over neutral SD. Again, not overwhelming, but having trans-continental waves tending to bottom out in the OV in route to the MA is not a bad fit just the same; therefore, gives a nod to these operational suggestions. Can't insert files from here, and this interface doesn't recognize clip-board pasting; perhaps later this evening unless someone else want to chime in and provide. Also, I am noticing a timing that might bring some significant cold nearing the end of the month - perhaps more later. Tip, I started a thread going forward and taking a peak at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 7 days till snow folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 The only problem is that the airmass is marginal if something were to even come by. There is a weak block in Canada, but flat top ridge out west means flow is progressive. Still, maybe the mtns squeeze out something. -PNA sets up afterwards which means we may turn mild mid month. Canada gets chilly so we'll need to move the Kamchatka ridge east in order to utilize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The only problem is that the airmass is marginal if something were to even come by. There is a weak block in Canada, but flat top ridge out west means flow is progressive. Still, maybe the mtns squeeze out something. -PNA sets up afterwards which means we may turn mild mid month. Canada gets chilly so we'll need to move the Kamchatka ridge east in order to utilize it. Yeah the "event" that's possible early next week looks too marginal at this point... maybe we can trend it stronger but light precip won't do it down below 1,500ft this time of year with H85 temps of 0C to -3C. We'd need to get a nice, strong CCB or something developed from a deepening low... not some weak "L" moving into the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 A moderator should move Tip's post/thread and merge it with Coastalwx's thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Well looks like near record highs up here today... mid 60s mountain valleys, and near 70F in the Burlington area. After a below normal September, we torched in October big-time. BTV and Springfield are both going to finish around a whopping +4.5F from normal, while the mountain valley sites of MVL, MPV, 1V4 may be more like +2.5 to +4. Anyway, anytime we start getting over +4F on a monthly departure, that's pretty much a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The only problem is that the airmass is marginal if something were to even come by. There is a weak block in Canada, but flat top ridge out west means flow is progressive. Still, maybe the mtns squeeze out something. -PNA sets up afterwards which means we may turn mild mid month. Canada gets chilly so we'll need to move the Kamchatka ridge east in order to utilize it. What's up with the -EPO/-PNA set-up on the Euro? That seems a little strange or is that something that happens frequently with shorter wavelengths in the fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 What's up with the -EPO/-PNA set-up on the Euro? That seems a little strange or is that something that happens frequently with shorter wavelengths in the fall? Well I see more of a Siberian/Aleutian ridge on the Euro which teleconnects to a -PNA. In the winter, it's possible a more Aleutian ridge pulls a 2008 and pushes the cold further east with bigger wavelengths. For now, I think we will be back and forth with cooler and warmer air.....but for now it doesn't seem like a prolonged cooler pattern here. I will say that I think this specific pattern in the winter would probably be more gradient like with the colder air spreading further east then we see in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 30, 2012 Author Share Posted October 30, 2012 Incoming tstms on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 expect the same tomorrow and maybe thursday Incoming tstms on the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 MONDAY INTO TUESDAY... GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM TRACKING S OF NEW ENG AS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GEFS MEAN ALSO SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO. DESPITE THE EXTENDED TIME RANGE THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT GFS HAS PRECIP SHIELD MUCH FURTHER N THAN ECMWF AND SUGGESTS SOME WINTRY PRECIP DISTANT INTERIOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STILL A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT SO WE HAVE JUST LOW CHC POPS. 7 days till snow folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 Well I see more of a Siberian/Aleutian ridge on the Euro which teleconnects to a -PNA. In the winter, it's possible a more Aleutian ridge pulls a 2008 and pushes the cold further east with bigger wavelengths. For now, I think we will be back and forth with cooler and warmer air.....but for now it doesn't seem like a prolonged cooler pattern here. I will say that I think this specific pattern in the winter would probably be more gradient like with the colder air spreading further east then we see in early November. Thanks Scott. It looked like maybe GOAK ridge near the end of the Euro which of course is susceptible to large swings. Maybe having a -NAO will help mitigate the torch some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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